Wow it seems like a month since we played Oklahoma…... wait it has been a month
.
This will be physical, and the toughest mental test of the season so far, BY FAR. Time to strap up and dial in.
SUMMARY:
This game will be the first time the Young Bucks have played an opponent with a different style..... TresselBall versus UrbanBall.
If you rated the severity of TresselBall on the same scale as a tornado, Whisky 2016 would be playing at a Level 5 TresselFactor. Put the women and children in the shelter and do NOT let them watch.
Whisky always plays power but this season they have summoned the Tressel mojo, where the game clock somehow moves faster than real time. The actual game feels like the ultra slow motion intro sequence for an NFL Films production, complete with the music “What Do You Do with A Drunken Sailor” playing in the background
Unfortunately for Whisky, they don’t have the horsepower to engage the 2016 Buckeyes for 60 minutes of TBall, and Urban has NO interest in playing along.
Might want to save the NFL Films sound track, it could be used by ABC to capture the moment as they pan the crowd at Camp Randall.
Final Score: 38 - 14 Buckeyes UrbanBall wins this game, but it won’t be as much fun as the road trip to Norman
How it Plays Out:
Whisky will leave it all on the field, include some tendency breakers to try and hit some explosive plays... but they simply don’t have the horses to make this stick for 60 minutes.
In fact I don’t think they have the horses to make it to half time.
The reason Whisky has a shot is that TresselBall changes the rules:
You don’t need to score early and often, you NEED TO OWN THE CLOCK. Take the game into the 4th quarter and have enough explosiveness to go for the jugular when the opponent is either not ready or gassed.
What folks often forget is that Tressel had excellent skill players at key positions. Chris Gamble had the longest play from scrimmage in the 02 Natty. Pryor totally owned Oregon, and was the best athlete on the field in the Rose Bowl. You need them to make the D soft and punish them if they don’t stay that way. Othewise you are going slow uphill into the wind.
Unfortunately, for Whisky they have no explosive players on offense (115th), a middling running game (ranked 43rd with a 37% success rate) and a freshman QB with a 55% completion percentage at 6.2 YPA. The overall O is ranked 100th. For reference Wyoming is 98th and Kansas is 103rd. But Whisky isn’t playing by the rules, so they can make this work.
The defense is stout without really jumping off the page outside of Linebacker Havoc Rate which is ranked #7. But their DL is ranked 123rd... so...even there. They are shutting teams down giving up 12.2 PPG opponent adjusted to 6th. They have outstanding balance against the run (9th) and the pass (15th)....but there are some issues.
Both the O and D production declines significantly as the game goes on. Both start with production ranked in the top 10 and then decline A LOT where the O finishes at 100 and the D at 25. This tells me they are THIN on both sides of the ball and playing close to the vest takes it’s toll.
Whisky are 13th in the nation at Time of Possession, but they can’t control pace at 73rd. Ohio State is 4th in ToP and is 19th at controlling pace. Actually Ohio State is better situated to play TBall than Whisky.
You’d think Whisky might be doing it with mirrors. But there is a sliver of statistical data that indicates how they’ve been winning.
They are 18th in Passing down success and 2nd in the nation on both O and D at converting and stopping 3rd downs. This is allowing them to stay on the field long enough and get the opponent off the field soon enough to control the clock and keep things close.
Essentially they have been able to use their 55% completion ratio and 6 YPA to get 4 yards on 2nd and 8, and then 8 yards on 3rd and 6 often enough to net 33% success. It’s been enough to get a few first downs, punt and play field position until the other team cracks.
On D they can get the teams they’ve played into 2nd and 8, or 3rd and 6 and blitz. The problem is that the teams they’ve played all had Pro Style QB’s who weren’t running threats………..
The margin for error is really small, and Whisky won’t be able to manufacture the 3rd down success often enough on either side of the ball for a number of reasons.
They will have to open things up and the turnover party will get started.
When the Bucks are On D
The Talking Heads will focus on the other side of the ball, b/c that is the more interesting matchup for pregame hype… “the immovable object and the unstoppable force” Yak Yak.
But this side of the ball is where Whisky has to succeed, and where the mental and schematic adjustments are more critical. The key principles of TBall...You can’t go three and out, you can’t turn the ball over and you have to maintain field position. It takes incredible discipline to pull off and Whisky has mastered it...thankfully they lack some of the ingredients to make it work against an elite team.
Since the Whisky punter is only averaging 37 YPP they need AT least one first down per possession to maintain field position.
That is the “Maginot Line” = One First Down. Make it and move on.
Whisky has to PASS to make it, and they have to be able to avoid getting stuffed on running downs so the pass has a hope to succeed.
They Key to Whisky survival is Troy Fumagali with supporting roles by Jazz Peavy and Robert Wheelwright. They have to muscle their way to catch anything close and get every inch to make first downs out of nothing.
Corey Clement just hasn’t lived up to his 4 star rating, and the Whisky OL is a little banged up. They will go JUMBO with 22 formation (2 TE, 2RB) and use an OT as the other TE. Clement is big but is the classic looks like Tarzan, but runs like Jane. He has good vision but not the wheels to be explosive. In general, he’s ok but not what Whisky needs. He’s not Davine Redding let alone Sammy Perine. He will be a non factor. Even if he goes off for a career day.
The Bucks have to adjust to two big changes:
Worley, Baker and Webb will be tested with the TE coverage, and I think we see Erik Smith in the SS role to add muscle. I expect Whisky to move Fumagali around to see who he matches up with best and stay there until they stop it.
The Bucks D will have to fight to prevent every single first down until the offense can force the action. I just can’t see Whisky being able to work around their limitations for more than 5 possessions.
Once Whisky has to open up the offense it’s going to get ugly for the Badgers, and I think that happens somewhere in the 2nd quarter.
When The Bucks Have the Ball
BOMBS AWAY. But first things first. Distribute the BALL, move the chains and go with tempo to play our game.
The key to a commanding victory is success on first down. The Buckeyes are FIRST IN THE COUNTRY on first down S&P + with a 62% success rate on all standard downs.
The key to doing this is distribution and variation. Whisky hasn't faced a mobile QB or an O with this many weapons that can be effective in the air or on the ground across the width of the field. I expect they go to the 2 4 5 form that Ross outlined and take their chances with Weber inside and try an pin Sanuel in.
The problem whisky has is they can't stop everything and they have to get stops. And they don't have the edge speed to cover the C gap bubble without loosening thins up inside.
Once the Buckeyes get going Whisky is screwed. They can’t control clock… and the Bucks will score, at which point they can’t control flow.
Once the game opens up the Buckeyes have a commanding speed advantage at all positions.
Even if the weather sucks we can smoke whisky on the ground and with passes you could throw and St Andrews in the midst of spring gales.
Final Thought…
It’s not about winning third down.. It’s about winning first down. Do that and my prediction may be conservative.
.This will be physical, and the toughest mental test of the season so far, BY FAR. Time to strap up and dial in.
SUMMARY:
This game will be the first time the Young Bucks have played an opponent with a different style..... TresselBall versus UrbanBall.
If you rated the severity of TresselBall on the same scale as a tornado, Whisky 2016 would be playing at a Level 5 TresselFactor. Put the women and children in the shelter and do NOT let them watch.
Whisky always plays power but this season they have summoned the Tressel mojo, where the game clock somehow moves faster than real time. The actual game feels like the ultra slow motion intro sequence for an NFL Films production, complete with the music “What Do You Do with A Drunken Sailor” playing in the background
Unfortunately for Whisky, they don’t have the horsepower to engage the 2016 Buckeyes for 60 minutes of TBall, and Urban has NO interest in playing along.
Might want to save the NFL Films sound track, it could be used by ABC to capture the moment as they pan the crowd at Camp Randall.
Final Score: 38 - 14 Buckeyes UrbanBall wins this game, but it won’t be as much fun as the road trip to Norman
How it Plays Out:
Whisky will leave it all on the field, include some tendency breakers to try and hit some explosive plays... but they simply don’t have the horses to make this stick for 60 minutes.
In fact I don’t think they have the horses to make it to half time.
The reason Whisky has a shot is that TresselBall changes the rules:
You don’t need to score early and often, you NEED TO OWN THE CLOCK. Take the game into the 4th quarter and have enough explosiveness to go for the jugular when the opponent is either not ready or gassed.
What folks often forget is that Tressel had excellent skill players at key positions. Chris Gamble had the longest play from scrimmage in the 02 Natty. Pryor totally owned Oregon, and was the best athlete on the field in the Rose Bowl. You need them to make the D soft and punish them if they don’t stay that way. Othewise you are going slow uphill into the wind.
Unfortunately, for Whisky they have no explosive players on offense (115th), a middling running game (ranked 43rd with a 37% success rate) and a freshman QB with a 55% completion percentage at 6.2 YPA. The overall O is ranked 100th. For reference Wyoming is 98th and Kansas is 103rd. But Whisky isn’t playing by the rules, so they can make this work.
The defense is stout without really jumping off the page outside of Linebacker Havoc Rate which is ranked #7. But their DL is ranked 123rd... so...even there. They are shutting teams down giving up 12.2 PPG opponent adjusted to 6th. They have outstanding balance against the run (9th) and the pass (15th)....but there are some issues.
Both the O and D production declines significantly as the game goes on. Both start with production ranked in the top 10 and then decline A LOT where the O finishes at 100 and the D at 25. This tells me they are THIN on both sides of the ball and playing close to the vest takes it’s toll.
Whisky are 13th in the nation at Time of Possession, but they can’t control pace at 73rd. Ohio State is 4th in ToP and is 19th at controlling pace. Actually Ohio State is better situated to play TBall than Whisky.
You’d think Whisky might be doing it with mirrors. But there is a sliver of statistical data that indicates how they’ve been winning.
They are 18th in Passing down success and 2nd in the nation on both O and D at converting and stopping 3rd downs. This is allowing them to stay on the field long enough and get the opponent off the field soon enough to control the clock and keep things close.
Essentially they have been able to use their 55% completion ratio and 6 YPA to get 4 yards on 2nd and 8, and then 8 yards on 3rd and 6 often enough to net 33% success. It’s been enough to get a few first downs, punt and play field position until the other team cracks.
On D they can get the teams they’ve played into 2nd and 8, or 3rd and 6 and blitz. The problem is that the teams they’ve played all had Pro Style QB’s who weren’t running threats………..
The margin for error is really small, and Whisky won’t be able to manufacture the 3rd down success often enough on either side of the ball for a number of reasons.
They will have to open things up and the turnover party will get started.
When the Bucks are On D
The Talking Heads will focus on the other side of the ball, b/c that is the more interesting matchup for pregame hype… “the immovable object and the unstoppable force” Yak Yak.
But this side of the ball is where Whisky has to succeed, and where the mental and schematic adjustments are more critical. The key principles of TBall...You can’t go three and out, you can’t turn the ball over and you have to maintain field position. It takes incredible discipline to pull off and Whisky has mastered it...thankfully they lack some of the ingredients to make it work against an elite team.
Since the Whisky punter is only averaging 37 YPP they need AT least one first down per possession to maintain field position.
That is the “Maginot Line” = One First Down. Make it and move on.
Whisky has to PASS to make it, and they have to be able to avoid getting stuffed on running downs so the pass has a hope to succeed.
They Key to Whisky survival is Troy Fumagali with supporting roles by Jazz Peavy and Robert Wheelwright. They have to muscle their way to catch anything close and get every inch to make first downs out of nothing.
Corey Clement just hasn’t lived up to his 4 star rating, and the Whisky OL is a little banged up. They will go JUMBO with 22 formation (2 TE, 2RB) and use an OT as the other TE. Clement is big but is the classic looks like Tarzan, but runs like Jane. He has good vision but not the wheels to be explosive. In general, he’s ok but not what Whisky needs. He’s not Davine Redding let alone Sammy Perine. He will be a non factor. Even if he goes off for a career day.
The Bucks have to adjust to two big changes:
Whisky will go JUMBO and use 2:2 personnel and use power blocking. Their light formation will be 2:1. The gaps and angles change. I don’t see this as a problem for more than one or two series. The Bucks D staff grew up defending this system so the will be ready.
Whisky objective is NOT to drive the field and score. It’s to get one to two first downs and punt. Indy gave this a go last week but it's not who they are.
The D will have to change thier blitz concepts and flip the coverage focus to concentrate on the TE and quick crossing routes.Whisky objective is NOT to drive the field and score. It’s to get one to two first downs and punt. Indy gave this a go last week but it's not who they are.
Worley, Baker and Webb will be tested with the TE coverage, and I think we see Erik Smith in the SS role to add muscle. I expect Whisky to move Fumagali around to see who he matches up with best and stay there until they stop it.
The Bucks D will have to fight to prevent every single first down until the offense can force the action. I just can’t see Whisky being able to work around their limitations for more than 5 possessions.
Once Whisky has to open up the offense it’s going to get ugly for the Badgers, and I think that happens somewhere in the 2nd quarter.
When The Bucks Have the Ball
BOMBS AWAY. But first things first. Distribute the BALL, move the chains and go with tempo to play our game.
The key to a commanding victory is success on first down. The Buckeyes are FIRST IN THE COUNTRY on first down S&P + with a 62% success rate on all standard downs.
The key to doing this is distribution and variation. Whisky hasn't faced a mobile QB or an O with this many weapons that can be effective in the air or on the ground across the width of the field. I expect they go to the 2 4 5 form that Ross outlined and take their chances with Weber inside and try an pin Sanuel in.
The problem whisky has is they can't stop everything and they have to get stops. And they don't have the edge speed to cover the C gap bubble without loosening thins up inside.
Once the Buckeyes get going Whisky is screwed. They can’t control clock… and the Bucks will score, at which point they can’t control flow.
Once the game opens up the Buckeyes have a commanding speed advantage at all positions.
Even if the weather sucks we can smoke whisky on the ground and with passes you could throw and St Andrews in the midst of spring gales.
Final Thought…
It’s not about winning third down.. It’s about winning first down. Do that and my prediction may be conservative.
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