WMU was a better game for the Bucks, and my pre-game thinking was much more in sync with the way it played out. I figured I’d roll the WMU thinking in with my overall thoughts for the First Third of 2015.
OMG there are only 8 regular season games left…
What the Committee is Thinking
The Committee didn’t care about WMU. The only game that got scrutiny in the first trimester was VaT, and we nailed it. It looked like we simply picked up where we left off last season and replaced Devin Smith with Braxton “B Button” Miller.
No one on the committee even remembers we played Hawaii, and NIU will at least be recalled as scheduling an opponent with a heartbeat. WMU was just another Boulevard Cruise with a few speed bumps…. the Committee yawned…. Win and Move On.
The Committee is going to be challenged with our ranking until the final Trimester, and really the last two RS games. Until then we just won’t have any T25 games on the resume. PSU could help us
So far we’re on track for a Big NYEve. The fact that we rotated a lot of bodies, avoided injuries and did what we needed to do versus VaT are the critical bits. Urb is using the schedule and the new system perfectly. I think the D is AHEAD of schedule and the O is a very interesting work in progress.
First Tri D
We’ve given up 49 points in 4 games for a sweet 12.3/gm. If you factor in the 18 points scored off of turnovers the D production is -21 over 4 games…. WOW. The D actually tied WMU!!
Last season we surrendered 22 PER GAME overall, and at this point we’d given up 80 playing a similar slate overall. I thought the D would be improved but not this soon. If you factor in the TO's for TD's the production has improved almost 4x!!!!
WMU was the only team to sustain drives so far. I predicted they’d have two, and they had three which would have been ok IMO except for their ability to run the ball to move the chains.
The Bronco passing O based on an Air Raid attack with inside power is very hard to stop from moving the chains. The Bullets did a good job there, stuffed them in the RZ and only gave up one big play. Both are huge improvements over last year.
WMU has been the only team to have any success on the ground, as they netted 169 yards. The yards didn’t concern me at all. Bogan only put up 4 YPC on 23 attempts.
Their ability to generate SUCCESSFUL RUNS especially on first down was troubling. A SUCCESSFUL RUN is one that gains 4 yards on 1st down, half of the remaining yards needed on 2nd down and converts on 3rd or 4th.
WMU was 6 of 17 along with 3 runs that gained 3 yards on 1st down. Effectively, 9/17 attempts were on schedule.They were the same on 2nd at 4 of 13, and then owned 3rd and 4th winning all but one attempt. This is the stat that confirms the eye test. They made 169 look like 250.
The Ash D scheme doesn’t intend to stop the run cold, just limit success to less than 25% with a keen focus on winning 1st and 2nd down. I don’t think any team we played since Ash started has hit ta 33% success rate running on first down and 2nd down, let alone the 90%+ on 3rd and 4th.
Note that everyone will panic about the Hoosiers, but even though we got gashed in ‘14 and that ISN’T good, we held Coleman to less than 25% success rate. The issue was that two of the successes went for 80 yards.
The D settled down as the game progressed but they gave up 5 successful 1st down runs + 1 run @ 3 yds on WMU’s first 6 tries...and lo and behold the big play TD.. happened at the end of that sequence.
Hopefully Ross’s film breakdown will shed some light here, but my read without replay was that Fleck and Mike the Mouth were using the TE sort of like we did against Oregon to create some nice seams at the point of attack… they also held like crazy and the refs will give the underdog the benefit of the doubt.
I think WMU threw the first real curve ball a the DL who weren’t expecting the emphasis on the inside run and were taking off up field to get the QB. This was a BIG problem last year for most of the season. I really think this was a one game issue that was progressively cleaned up after half time, but we will find out Saturday.
First Tri O
This deserves it’s own post and I’m working on it. In the meantime.
VaT was a clear example of what happens to a DC if they try and throw the same high hard fastball to a home run hitter late in a game they struck him out with in the early innings. Aside from a tweak that stalled a couple of drives in 2Q it was bombs away. Forget the Sandman… it was Bye Bye Miss American Pie.
Some of what happened in the next few games is somewhat a result of scheming and practicing all camp to pulverize a C0 BEAR, coupled with the post blow out narcosis that followed.
Some of the rest is a combination of overcompensation to protect some players from too many reps, while simultaneously trying to showcase players within a far too limited overall plan.
Within all this was a not too subtle and important shift in the foundation of the O scheme, which is being integrated. Urban evidently wants to shift from Zone Read Option to Power Zone combined with a heavy dose of deep veritical passing. This is far more VERTICAL - think Sid Gillman and Al Davis - than SPREAD - think Tiger Elliot and Mouse Davis.
This shift is something I believe Urb tried in 2013 for the stretch run, and in my view it was never properly integrated. He junked it after the VaT game last year and then fate struck and he had no choice to go back to it with Cardale. Voila! It worked…. like a charm. Most importantly… it decimated the Alabama D, and that is really hard to do in a big game. Kirby and Nick had no answer.
There are a couple of things to consider with the Power/Vertical scheme. 1) It’s very hard to stay ahead of the chains; 2) There is no clear role for the H Back; 3) You have to have a true X receiver, and this is not just a really fast dude but also one who can win 50/50 balls; and 4) You have to have a QB with an absolute cannon who is also accurate with the underneath and intermediate throws; 5) and the further you go down the vertical rabbit hole the QB has to be able to read complex pattern matching zone defenses.
I think Urb really wanted to go with both QB’s since JT can run the SPREAD like a champ, and this solves #1 and #2, and #5 . But it looks like he’s concluding that there is a reason rotating QB’s has never really worked in either college or pro’s. He may not have abandoned the idea altogether, but for now he and Ed/Tim are going to have to sort out #1, #2 and #5 with CJ at the helm.
They also have to find an X receiver……more to follow….
OMG there are only 8 regular season games left…
What the Committee is Thinking
The Committee didn’t care about WMU. The only game that got scrutiny in the first trimester was VaT, and we nailed it. It looked like we simply picked up where we left off last season and replaced Devin Smith with Braxton “B Button” Miller.
No one on the committee even remembers we played Hawaii, and NIU will at least be recalled as scheduling an opponent with a heartbeat. WMU was just another Boulevard Cruise with a few speed bumps…. the Committee yawned…. Win and Move On.
The Committee is going to be challenged with our ranking until the final Trimester, and really the last two RS games. Until then we just won’t have any T25 games on the resume. PSU could help us
So far we’re on track for a Big NYEve. The fact that we rotated a lot of bodies, avoided injuries and did what we needed to do versus VaT are the critical bits. Urb is using the schedule and the new system perfectly. I think the D is AHEAD of schedule and the O is a very interesting work in progress.
First Tri D
We’ve given up 49 points in 4 games for a sweet 12.3/gm. If you factor in the 18 points scored off of turnovers the D production is -21 over 4 games…. WOW. The D actually tied WMU!!
Last season we surrendered 22 PER GAME overall, and at this point we’d given up 80 playing a similar slate overall. I thought the D would be improved but not this soon. If you factor in the TO's for TD's the production has improved almost 4x!!!!
WMU was the only team to sustain drives so far. I predicted they’d have two, and they had three which would have been ok IMO except for their ability to run the ball to move the chains.
The Bronco passing O based on an Air Raid attack with inside power is very hard to stop from moving the chains. The Bullets did a good job there, stuffed them in the RZ and only gave up one big play. Both are huge improvements over last year.
WMU has been the only team to have any success on the ground, as they netted 169 yards. The yards didn’t concern me at all. Bogan only put up 4 YPC on 23 attempts.
Their ability to generate SUCCESSFUL RUNS especially on first down was troubling. A SUCCESSFUL RUN is one that gains 4 yards on 1st down, half of the remaining yards needed on 2nd down and converts on 3rd or 4th.
WMU was 6 of 17 along with 3 runs that gained 3 yards on 1st down. Effectively, 9/17 attempts were on schedule.They were the same on 2nd at 4 of 13, and then owned 3rd and 4th winning all but one attempt. This is the stat that confirms the eye test. They made 169 look like 250.
The Ash D scheme doesn’t intend to stop the run cold, just limit success to less than 25% with a keen focus on winning 1st and 2nd down. I don’t think any team we played since Ash started has hit ta 33% success rate running on first down and 2nd down, let alone the 90%+ on 3rd and 4th.
Note that everyone will panic about the Hoosiers, but even though we got gashed in ‘14 and that ISN’T good, we held Coleman to less than 25% success rate. The issue was that two of the successes went for 80 yards.
The D settled down as the game progressed but they gave up 5 successful 1st down runs + 1 run @ 3 yds on WMU’s first 6 tries...and lo and behold the big play TD.. happened at the end of that sequence.
Hopefully Ross’s film breakdown will shed some light here, but my read without replay was that Fleck and Mike the Mouth were using the TE sort of like we did against Oregon to create some nice seams at the point of attack… they also held like crazy and the refs will give the underdog the benefit of the doubt.
I think WMU threw the first real curve ball a the DL who weren’t expecting the emphasis on the inside run and were taking off up field to get the QB. This was a BIG problem last year for most of the season. I really think this was a one game issue that was progressively cleaned up after half time, but we will find out Saturday.
First Tri O
This deserves it’s own post and I’m working on it. In the meantime.
VaT was a clear example of what happens to a DC if they try and throw the same high hard fastball to a home run hitter late in a game they struck him out with in the early innings. Aside from a tweak that stalled a couple of drives in 2Q it was bombs away. Forget the Sandman… it was Bye Bye Miss American Pie.
Some of what happened in the next few games is somewhat a result of scheming and practicing all camp to pulverize a C0 BEAR, coupled with the post blow out narcosis that followed.
Some of the rest is a combination of overcompensation to protect some players from too many reps, while simultaneously trying to showcase players within a far too limited overall plan.
Within all this was a not too subtle and important shift in the foundation of the O scheme, which is being integrated. Urban evidently wants to shift from Zone Read Option to Power Zone combined with a heavy dose of deep veritical passing. This is far more VERTICAL - think Sid Gillman and Al Davis - than SPREAD - think Tiger Elliot and Mouse Davis.
This shift is something I believe Urb tried in 2013 for the stretch run, and in my view it was never properly integrated. He junked it after the VaT game last year and then fate struck and he had no choice to go back to it with Cardale. Voila! It worked…. like a charm. Most importantly… it decimated the Alabama D, and that is really hard to do in a big game. Kirby and Nick had no answer.
There are a couple of things to consider with the Power/Vertical scheme. 1) It’s very hard to stay ahead of the chains; 2) There is no clear role for the H Back; 3) You have to have a true X receiver, and this is not just a really fast dude but also one who can win 50/50 balls; and 4) You have to have a QB with an absolute cannon who is also accurate with the underneath and intermediate throws; 5) and the further you go down the vertical rabbit hole the QB has to be able to read complex pattern matching zone defenses.
I think Urb really wanted to go with both QB’s since JT can run the SPREAD like a champ, and this solves #1 and #2, and #5 . But it looks like he’s concluding that there is a reason rotating QB’s has never really worked in either college or pro’s. He may not have abandoned the idea altogether, but for now he and Ed/Tim are going to have to sort out #1, #2 and #5 with CJ at the helm.
They also have to find an X receiver……more to follow….
