Was looking at some of the match-ups coming up and how they impact the B1G race:
- The Penn State-Michigan game is pretty big this week as far as the Big Ten East goes. Outside of the obvious, if you look at PSU's schedule, if they get by this week, they go to Sparty and Minnesota, host Indiana, come to Columbus, and finish at home to Rutgers. They really should beat every team not named Ohio State on that list, which makes winning the game against the Nittany Lions the most important one on the schedule IMO. Yes, the Michigan game is "always the most important", but without winning the B1G, there is no path to the CFP for Ohio State, and they have to win the B1G East to get there. A loss to Wisconsin doesn't eliminate OSU from a trip to Indy or the CFP, but a loss to PSU likely does.
- As bad as they've looked at times, Michigan is still very much alive in the CFP and B1G hunt. Their loss is to Wisconsin, so like Ohio State, that won't effect them negatively as far as winning the division and making it to Indy. They play Notre Dame next week, but since that's a non-conference game, it can only knock them out of CFP contention, and not the B1G East/B1G race. A win against PSU and it could come down to The Game (again) to see who makes it to Indianapolis. A loss to PSU, and UM needs to pray that they can beat the Buckeyes and get a lot of help in between.
- In the West, Wisconsin is obviously rolling right now. Just like with OSU and them, a loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus next week does not kill the Badgers. If they win out and beat OSU in a rematch, they should be in the CFP at 12-1 and B1G Champs IMO. They obviously need to beat Minnesota (who is also undefeated), and Iowa (if they lose to Ohio State), but they should be able to do both of those things, especially with the game vs. the Hawkeyes at home. They get Illinois on the road this week, travel to Columbus next week, get Iowa in Camp Randall after a bye, go to Nebraska, host Purdue, and are at Minny to end the year. Loseable games in there? For sure. But as of today I expect the Badgers in Indy.
- As mentioned, the Gophers are undefeated and have Rutgers this week so they should stay that way at least one more week. They then get Maryland at home before a bye, which should put them at 8-0 in the off week. Their last four games they play vs. PSU, @Iowa, @Northwestern, and vs. Wisconsin--I'd be surprised if they won two of those, which should eliminate them from the race.
- Despite Iowa losing to PSU and UM the last two weeks, there is still a way out of the West for them. They do need some help, though. First, they need to win out, as 3 conference losses likely KOs them--Wisconsin and Minnesota are two remaining games and they are back-to-back so 11/9 and 11/16 is a huge stretch. Then, they need someone else to beat Wisconsin--whether that be Ohio State next week or one of Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, or Minnesota. They also need Minnesota to lose a second game outside of the head-to-head with the Hawkeyes.
- Nebraska and Purdue are both technically in the West race too as of today, but given what we've seen from them this year, I see it as challenging for them to compete for the crown. NU would have to beat all of Purdue, Wisco, and Iowa on their way to winning out, although they do get the Badgers and Hawkeyes at home. Purdue has to beat Iowa, Nebraska, and Wisco on their way to winning out, but they have the Badgers and Hawkeyes on the road.
- When it comes to the Buckeyes, obviously you have to hope they can win out, but being that going undefeated is extremely hard, you also have to accept the fact that they could lose a game along the way. The key is it being the right game and not getting completely blown out. A loss against Wisconsin in Columbus next week would likely be a tight game. With wins over PSU and UM to end the year, capped by beating UW on a neutral field in the B1G CG, that should be enough for the Buckeyes to get in. They can't lose to Northwestern, Maryland, or Rutgers, and it's really hard to see that happening. A loss to PSU and they need some help (UM beating PSU and one of MSU/Minny/IU/RU beating PSU, or a combo of two of the latter mentioned teams). A loss to UM, and it depends on the circumstances before that game (if UM has 1 division loss coming into the game, OSU is out; if UM has 2 division losses and OSU beats PSU, they should still be good). Lots of ways the season can twist and turn
