I found this graph to be very interesting. For those who don’t know, Bill Connelly has become relatively well-known in college football circles for his S&P+ ratings metric, which can be best described as efficiency-adjusted “predictive” rankings. Power ratings like S&P+ are similar to what Las Vegas sportsbooks use to set point spreads. For purposes of reading the graph, finishing at or above the 90th percentile typically results in a top 10 finish in the ratings.
A couple of thoughts on this graph:
- Based on the ratings, Woody’s best team was the 1954 squad, which went 10-0 lead by a guy named Hopalong Cassady. They beat USC in the Rose Bowl 20-7, winning Woody’s first national title.
- Woody’s best run of sustained excellence per S&P+ came from 1973-1977. 1973 and 1975 really should have been national title years. The drop off from ‘77 to ‘78 though was significant.
- Earle couldn’t sustain the level of success that his first team in 1979 reached. He was fairly inconsistent by OSU standards.
- The drop off from 86 to 88 is massive. Cooper was really digging from a big hole when he took the job. But Coop started a steady rise in 1989 that culminated in the run from 1995-1998.
- Cooper’s run from 1995-1998 is one of the greatest in OSU history and might be the best 4 year run in school history from the perspective of S&P+. OSU was elite every year. And yet somehow they only beat Michigan once during that timeframe. It is hard to tell for sure from the graph but that 1998 team may have been the highest rated OSU team on S&P+ of all time. I’m still not over that MSU loss.
- Coop really fell off a cliff after 1998 though. Things bottomed out in 2001 during Tress’ first year, but after that Tress shot up and his teams remained above the 90th percentile every year save for 2004, with his best team being 2005.
- The length of Urban’s run of being “elite” from 2013-2018 is unmatched in OSU history. Somewhat surprisingly, Urban’s strongest team per these rankings appears to be the 2017 team that finished 12-2.
- Overall, based on the graph the teams that finished with the highest S&P+ rating in OSU history were 1954 (10-0), 1998 (11-1), and 2017 (12-2).
