By Lisa Lerer
Politics Newsletter Writer
As we all learned in 2016, public polling can be a tricky endeavor. So perhaps what’s most surprising about two new national surveys released today on guns is just how clear the results seem to be.
Vast majorities of Americans — Democrats and Republicans, men and women — support stricter gun laws, the polls found.
They’re even open to the kinds of programs once considered dead on arrival in political circles, including banning sales of military-style assault weapons and creating a mandatory federal buyback program for those weapons.
Perhaps most significantly, the issue is starting to scare people: Last month, a third of Americans reported that fear of a mass shooting stops them from going to certain public places, according to a survey by the American Psychological Association. Sixty percent say they’re worried about a mass shooting in their community.
So, the politics of guns are shifting. They might even be — dare I say it? — at an inflection point.
But are they changing enough to prompt action when Congress returns to Washington this week?
I’m pretty skeptical. And, privately, so are a number of advocates working on this issue, who are fighting for legislation but keeping their sights firmly on the 2020 election.
“The level of fear can’t help but permeate the most hidebound Republican politician on a personal level,” said Peter Ambler, executive director of Giffords, a gun-safety advocacy group that released a video on Monday featuring the top Democratic presidential candidates calling for action on gun violence in schools. “But I think as a political establishment, the Republicans seem absolutely unable to evolve as politicians.”
Here, it is important to pause and distinguish between, as Mayor Pete Buttigieg recently described in an interview with my colleague Reid Epstein, “Republican human beings” and “Republicans elected to office.”
Republican voters are open to stricter gun control. But official Republicans? The picture is more complicated.
Yes, a number of Republican politicians say they’re now open to gun control laws. On Friday, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick of Texas, a staunch defender of gun rights, publicly endorsed expanding the state’s background checks. Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio released a plan to expand background checks. And there has been some chatter among Republicans in the Senate about various proposals, with some warning that if they don’t take some action soon, the country could end up with far broader restrictions later on.
But the decision about whether to move forward with new proposals in Washington largely rests with one man: President Trump. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has indicated some openness to action but has said he won’t move without a commitment from the White House.
“The president needs to step up here and set some guidelines for what he would do,” Senator Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, said on Sunday, before mentioning proposals that would expand “things we could do with more early mental health help.”
After initially voicing support for “very meaningful background checks,” Mr. Trump appears to have softened his resolve after a visit from the head of the National Rifle Association. His campaign has warned that supporting gun control measures would be unpopular with his base. And it remains unclear whether his chaotic White House has the capacity to shepherd major bipartisan legislation through Congress — even if the president wanted to move forward with a plan.
The bottom line: Nobody expects any real movement in Washington until at least 2021.
