I’ll update the RESUME post from last week with some more data, discuss a little about why IU was the way it was and look at the Top 20%tile from Football Outsiders.
I want to see how we are doing relative to the teams we’ve played, how we stack up relative to the upcoming opponent AND the rest of the CFP pool. I think the AP and Coaches Poll are beyond useless. They are misleading, and traditional stats can compound this confusion.
Here’s The data that matters:
2nd order wins are effectively what the stats say what your W/L should be ( a negative in the parens says you’re playing worse than your record and a + better). The S&P+ is an opponent adjusted metric that accounts for efficiency and explosiveness on both sides of the ball. It’s graded on a curve across all 128 teams, 100% is top of the class and 0% the bottom. The Off, Def and ST S&P are projected points for/against based on drives tabulated for the whole season.
For example… Rutgers projects to 19.2 PPG which is 120th. OK projects to 47.5 and is 2nd.
What is shows is that we’ve played
What the stats show is that Whisky is not 11th in the nation they are 25th and trending down (lost 7 positions when they didn’t play, b/c other teams are starting to play better than they are).
There are solid statistical reasons that Whisky is a 10 point DOG at home. This isn’t my forecast, and there ARE SOME SERIOUS issues under the hood I’m still noodling. I will address all of that tomorrow.
As for the T25 according to the Advanced Stats, here is what things look like. Where I’ve added in some distribution markers to see how things stack up. This is the critical bit relative to the CFPC. The Advanced Stats tend to correlate with how they vote.. A whole lot more than the AP
There is a clear group of 5 at the top, followed by two middle groups of about 7-8 each and a bottom group of 5. There is still some churn as the season is still at the halfway point, where PSU stormed in +21 and BYU at +17.
It’s interesting thatI want to see how we are doing relative to the teams we’ve played, how we stack up relative to the upcoming opponent AND the rest of the CFP pool. I think the AP and Coaches Poll are beyond useless. They are misleading, and traditional stats can compound this confusion.
Here’s The data that matters:
2nd order wins are effectively what the stats say what your W/L should be ( a negative in the parens says you’re playing worse than your record and a + better). The S&P+ is an opponent adjusted metric that accounts for efficiency and explosiveness on both sides of the ball. It’s graded on a curve across all 128 teams, 100% is top of the class and 0% the bottom. The Off, Def and ST S&P are projected points for/against based on drives tabulated for the whole season.
For example… Rutgers projects to 19.2 PPG which is 120th. OK projects to 47.5 and is 2nd.
What is shows is that we’ve played
One elite team (OK) at 94% and ranked 6th overall and playing a little better than their 3-2 record. Our D is legit folks… OK is the #2 ranked offense in the nation right now.
One pretty good balanced team in IU who are in the top third (67%) of the class and playing almost one full game better than 3-2. Top Half on Offense and Top Quartile on D, and please note the D ranking folks!! IU D is playing VERY well right now and deserved a better effort on the field and in the press box.
The reason we struggled on O was NOT JT being Off.. We struggled b/c the OL got waxed at the LOS and at the edge for most of the game, and IU cut our success rate running on first down by half of our NCAA leading 65%. The press box refused to call air raid passes to help offset this, and we had to rely on passing downs which has been a weakness all season.
The other 3 teams are playing like crap and tell us nothing except we might have some bad habits that aren’t being exposed… yet!
What the stats show is that Whisky is not 11th in the nation they are 25th and trending down (lost 7 positions when they didn’t play, b/c other teams are starting to play better than they are).
There are solid statistical reasons that Whisky is a 10 point DOG at home. This isn’t my forecast, and there ARE SOME SERIOUS issues under the hood I’m still noodling. I will address all of that tomorrow.
As for the T25 according to the Advanced Stats, here is what things look like. Where I’ve added in some distribution markers to see how things stack up. This is the critical bit relative to the CFPC. The Advanced Stats tend to correlate with how they vote.. A whole lot more than the AP
There is a clear group of 5 at the top, followed by two middle groups of about 7-8 each and a bottom group of 5. There is still some churn as the season is still at the halfway point, where PSU stormed in +21 and BYU at +17.
Of the Top 5, TTUN is the only team without a win over a team in the group right below it. Their wins over Whisky and PSU would be graded as quality… but I’m not sure either will hold when the committee votes.
Clemson and Bama have a record that might be a bit better than they are playing.
9 of the Advanced Stat T25 have 2 or more losses, which means that it will be really hard for those teams to get into the committee T25 by the end of the season.
As of now 5 of 12 games would be against T25 teams. I think at least 3 of these will hold for the season.
