Football success rate is a function of how successful you are on each down. Often confused with "3rd down conversion" rates - the real "success rate" tells a lot more about how well you are playing than simple 3rd down conversions.
Think of it this way. If you're in a 3rd and 12 situation every series your 3rd down conversion rate is probably going to be pretty bad. But it doesn't tell the story of how poorly you're actually playing.
Success on first down equals gaining 5 yards or more - half the distance remaining for a first down
Success on second down equals gaining half of what's left after first down
OSU VS NIU
29 First Downs
15 Successful
14 Unsuccessful
51.7% Success rate
20 Second Downs
11 Successful
9 Unsuccessful
55% Success rate
13 Third downs
2 Successful
11 Unsuccessful
15.4% Success rate
52% success rates on 1st and 2nd down aren't bad at all. Not great by any means - but not terrible. But if you're successful on 1st down then again successful on 2nd down, you should be looking at a comparable rate on 3rd down. That is what made this game so frustrating to watch. It's not like we couldn't move the ball. We just couldn't sustain a drive.
Think of it this way. If you're in a 3rd and 12 situation every series your 3rd down conversion rate is probably going to be pretty bad. But it doesn't tell the story of how poorly you're actually playing.
Success on first down equals gaining 5 yards or more - half the distance remaining for a first down
Success on second down equals gaining half of what's left after first down
OSU VS NIU
29 First Downs
15 Successful
14 Unsuccessful
51.7% Success rate
20 Second Downs
11 Successful
9 Unsuccessful
55% Success rate
13 Third downs
2 Successful
11 Unsuccessful
15.4% Success rate
52% success rates on 1st and 2nd down aren't bad at all. Not great by any means - but not terrible. But if you're successful on 1st down then again successful on 2nd down, you should be looking at a comparable rate on 3rd down. That is what made this game so frustrating to watch. It's not like we couldn't move the ball. We just couldn't sustain a drive.
