This is my weekly pregame “summary”. It’s my first on Rivals. Note: IT’S REALLY LONG. Sorry in advance.
I do these to head off my tendency to be a Sunday (or in this case Tuesday) morning QB, and critique every shortcoming in the game after the fact... when it's easy with all the data in hand. I also use it to build a solid forecast as I get live data through the season. Of course game #1 is a crap shoot.
I can also use them season to season...Last season my pregame for the Hokies had the following tid bits that were relevant then and now.
Now onto this season. My post covers: Prediction (to get this out of the way), Game Flow, Things I’ll Look for, When the Hokies Have the Ball and When the Bucks Have the Ball, Final Thoughts
Prediction: Bucks 45 - 20 in a game that isn’t as close as the score. I really feel that a total blow out is possible, but the Bucks will make mistakes in game #1 just like most of their big games last season, Va Tech is well coached and the game is on the road at night.
Game Flow: The Bucks will come out hot. They’ve had all summer to figure this out and Foster will start out with the same basic scheme, since it was/is the only way his roster can defend the Bucks.
I expect Braxton to be featured early. My gut says he takes the first snap and runs Counter Trey for old time sake… and b/c that play is a Bear beater. He and the rest of the Bucks will go tempo and get an early lead.
Foster will adjust gradually. For some reason I think he will deploy a form of a 4x4 stack, and then grudgingly into their 4-2-5 base D. The Bucks will offer up a few turnovers…. it’s what they do. Va Tech will have a little success off the TO’s and the game will be close going into halftime.
In the end VaT just doesn’t have enough horses on O and can’t do it with mirrors for 60 minutes on D. The Bucks will get a comfy lead and win going away. I’d like to say blowout b/c the backup QB will score at will… I just think the mistakes will keep it close.
Things I’ll Look For: Turnovers and Red Zone D. Last season the Bucks were awful in both areas. It’s hard to win a NCG that way once and I don’t think they can do it twice. I’ll be looking for improvement, but not expecting perfection. Some of the TO’s are the result of aggressive play. But 4 TO’s against Bama should = a loss. The RZD should be much better.
When the Hokies have the Ball.
Things haven’t changed much since last year…..
Ok so the Hokies are starting a recent college graduate from Texas Tech at QB, two Freshman RB’s, a freshman TE and WR with an OL that has underachieved since they showed up in Blacksburg. Their OC was a QB for TTUN in the early 90s, GA’d and coached there through the Henne era. He then was the QB coach for Urban during the Tebow years, then OC’d at Temple and is now running the O show for the Hokies.
Now that I’ve watched Brewer he reminds me of Matt Moxie McGloin. Say what you will that dude is still hanging around on an NFL roster. Brewer is now a full two years in this O and has skills.
Hodges is ALL that, and he will be used early and often.
They have settled on the scat back JC Coleman to tote the rock. He had a nice Bowl game, but this offense needs a power back and VaT will miss Their suspended RB as much or more than we will miss Bosa.
Loeffler is a Bo Disciple and wants to run power Pro Style, and you can’t do that with this talent group against this Defense. He knows it. Beamer Ball is all about Defense and Special Teams, He doesn’t expect his O to win the game just not to lose it.
The key for the Hokies to stay in this game is to avoid 3 and out and turnovers. Both will doom them to a nightmare. To do this, they have to win 1st down (4+ yards), and they have to do this without a power running game. Brewer had Moxie like success on 3rd and forever last year, but also got pummeled. They know that’s not a strategy they can repeat.
I expect VaT to engage the scat back Coleman who is a 60 yard dash guy out of the backfield on swings, and Hodges through the air on high percentage throws first down along with mis-direction screens on 2nd and long when they miss - See Loeffler’s alma mater in 2013 - to attack our young DE’s.
The problem for Loeffler is that our Linebackers are MUCH MUCH better than they were in 2013 and you can’t run mis-direction screens and option run/pass to the TE all game... like Borges could then.
At some point they will have to run the rock, and they don’t have the horses. Brewer will then have to stand in the pocket and throw and he will get hit and it will take it’s toll.
I expect 300 yards mostly on broken plays. Converting TO’s into points, and getting at least one first down per possession. This is how they stay in the game with middling offensive production. They will do enough to hang in there. Blowout alert if the Bucks force 3 and outs 2 or more times in the first half.
When the Bucks Have the Ball
The Bucks weren’t fooled last year, they simply had a horrid plan to adjust to a bear front (or 8 man gap D). This had been true from game #1 of the Urban era. See the Cal game and both games against Sparty. Running the QB to the edge and throwing deep only works with Braxton as the QB, and even then it’s not the optimum response. Fixing their approach to a Gap 8 D was key to the run to the NCG.
The historic Base D for the Hokie’s was/is a Gap 8 with cover 1 or Cover 3 on the back end. They struggled through the early 2010’s dealing with spread teams using this scheme, and like other run first D’s (See Buckeyes post 2005) shifted to 4-2-5 using Cover 6 (or quarter, quarter half) on the back end.
Frankly, they are only fair to middling when they have to run the 4-2-5 and their roster with small fast DL and LB's has no chance stopping the run against a team like the Bucks with Zeke running the rock.
Foster knew that and the back to the future move was really a no brainer. Their approach last season was to start off in the Gap 8, and then mix in classic 46 blitz O rama with Cover 0 as and eschew the 4-2-5 altogether.
The right response and what we’ll see tomorrow is to throw slants, attack the edge in the air and through jet sweeps and run/pass option expecting the the WR’s to generate YAC. You also have to apply liberal doses of the TE in the 5-8 yard “safety” zone. Arguably, the Bucks didn’t have the WR’s or H backs to do this, or a QB who could find the TE on a check down without getting sacked…. in the past.
That was then and tomorrow will be now. I expect the Bucks to run Braxton, throw to Braxton and use him and Samuel to force the Hokie’s out of the Bear and eventually out of the Gap 8.
For some reason I think Bud’s initial response will be to go to a 4x4 stack where he pulls the OLB's off the LOS and realigns the DL. They will attack the 8 gaps on run action but vary how the OLB react to ensure the H back is marked before they go downhill.
This is a HS D but it keeps the gap 8 integrity up front, and gives him more bodies at the second level to try and deal with Braxton and the intermediate passing zones.
The Bucks will adapt and attack with their combo blocking scheme once the bodies have moved off the LOS, and use the TE and start to throw over the top on early downs when the LB’s have to play the run or perish.
I’m thinking 450+ total offense where the only issue is rust and some TO issues.
Final Thinking:
I honestly have no idea how the Bucks will look in 2015 until I see them in live action. If this game plays out how I think it will some flaws will be evident but we will stand up to the pre-season expectations.
I do these to head off my tendency to be a Sunday (or in this case Tuesday) morning QB, and critique every shortcoming in the game after the fact... when it's easy with all the data in hand. I also use it to build a solid forecast as I get live data through the season. Of course game #1 is a crap shoot.
I can also use them season to season...Last season my pregame for the Hokies had the following tid bits that were relevant then and now.
The Hokie D has it’s origins in the UW 8 man gap D from the late 80’s early 90’s where the Huskies, coached by Ohioan Don James and his DC Jim Lambright, generally terrorized the PAC10 and anyone they played in the Rose Bowl. The Husky version had it’s roots in the Chicago Bears “46” D from the early 80’s Superbowl champs. An excellent overview can be found here. http://www.shakinthesouthland.com/2011/9/28/2454131/inside-the-virginia-tech-defense
The Va Tech base uses a 4x4 alignment with a single high Safety and 2 CBs. The Hokie personnel is VERY interesting. The front 8 are small and fast.
In a sentence the Hokies are an attacking D, which uses alignment (8 men in the box as a standard scheme) to stop the power run and fast personnel to combat lateral speed plays. They adapt to passing plays by mixing up blitzing and coverages by dropping LBs into coverage and bringing the safeties in low in a robber look.
If Urban is gonna say they had NO IDEA that Foster was going to run the Bear ….Allrighty then.The Va Tech base uses a 4x4 alignment with a single high Safety and 2 CBs. The Hokie personnel is VERY interesting. The front 8 are small and fast.
In a sentence the Hokies are an attacking D, which uses alignment (8 men in the box as a standard scheme) to stop the power run and fast personnel to combat lateral speed plays. They adapt to passing plays by mixing up blitzing and coverages by dropping LBs into coverage and bringing the safeties in low in a robber look.
Now onto this season. My post covers: Prediction (to get this out of the way), Game Flow, Things I’ll Look for, When the Hokies Have the Ball and When the Bucks Have the Ball, Final Thoughts
Prediction: Bucks 45 - 20 in a game that isn’t as close as the score. I really feel that a total blow out is possible, but the Bucks will make mistakes in game #1 just like most of their big games last season, Va Tech is well coached and the game is on the road at night.
Game Flow: The Bucks will come out hot. They’ve had all summer to figure this out and Foster will start out with the same basic scheme, since it was/is the only way his roster can defend the Bucks.
I expect Braxton to be featured early. My gut says he takes the first snap and runs Counter Trey for old time sake… and b/c that play is a Bear beater. He and the rest of the Bucks will go tempo and get an early lead.
Foster will adjust gradually. For some reason I think he will deploy a form of a 4x4 stack, and then grudgingly into their 4-2-5 base D. The Bucks will offer up a few turnovers…. it’s what they do. Va Tech will have a little success off the TO’s and the game will be close going into halftime.
In the end VaT just doesn’t have enough horses on O and can’t do it with mirrors for 60 minutes on D. The Bucks will get a comfy lead and win going away. I’d like to say blowout b/c the backup QB will score at will… I just think the mistakes will keep it close.
Things I’ll Look For: Turnovers and Red Zone D. Last season the Bucks were awful in both areas. It’s hard to win a NCG that way once and I don’t think they can do it twice. I’ll be looking for improvement, but not expecting perfection. Some of the TO’s are the result of aggressive play. But 4 TO’s against Bama should = a loss. The RZD should be much better.
When the Hokies have the Ball.
Things haven’t changed much since last year…..
Ok so the Hokies are starting a recent college graduate from Texas Tech at QB, two Freshman RB’s, a freshman TE and WR with an OL that has underachieved since they showed up in Blacksburg. Their OC was a QB for TTUN in the early 90s, GA’d and coached there through the Henne era. He then was the QB coach for Urban during the Tebow years, then OC’d at Temple and is now running the O show for the Hokies.
All I can see right now is a smallish not too fastish Air Raid refugee QB running an O with two big plodding (from what I could tell) backs, a Funchess like TE and a nifty WR being guided by a disciple of Bo Schembechler with a pinch of Urban Meyer.
Now that I’ve watched Brewer he reminds me of Matt Moxie McGloin. Say what you will that dude is still hanging around on an NFL roster. Brewer is now a full two years in this O and has skills.
Hodges is ALL that, and he will be used early and often.
They have settled on the scat back JC Coleman to tote the rock. He had a nice Bowl game, but this offense needs a power back and VaT will miss Their suspended RB as much or more than we will miss Bosa.
Loeffler is a Bo Disciple and wants to run power Pro Style, and you can’t do that with this talent group against this Defense. He knows it. Beamer Ball is all about Defense and Special Teams, He doesn’t expect his O to win the game just not to lose it.
The key for the Hokies to stay in this game is to avoid 3 and out and turnovers. Both will doom them to a nightmare. To do this, they have to win 1st down (4+ yards), and they have to do this without a power running game. Brewer had Moxie like success on 3rd and forever last year, but also got pummeled. They know that’s not a strategy they can repeat.
I expect VaT to engage the scat back Coleman who is a 60 yard dash guy out of the backfield on swings, and Hodges through the air on high percentage throws first down along with mis-direction screens on 2nd and long when they miss - See Loeffler’s alma mater in 2013 - to attack our young DE’s.
The problem for Loeffler is that our Linebackers are MUCH MUCH better than they were in 2013 and you can’t run mis-direction screens and option run/pass to the TE all game... like Borges could then.
At some point they will have to run the rock, and they don’t have the horses. Brewer will then have to stand in the pocket and throw and he will get hit and it will take it’s toll.
I expect 300 yards mostly on broken plays. Converting TO’s into points, and getting at least one first down per possession. This is how they stay in the game with middling offensive production. They will do enough to hang in there. Blowout alert if the Bucks force 3 and outs 2 or more times in the first half.
When the Bucks Have the Ball
The Bucks weren’t fooled last year, they simply had a horrid plan to adjust to a bear front (or 8 man gap D). This had been true from game #1 of the Urban era. See the Cal game and both games against Sparty. Running the QB to the edge and throwing deep only works with Braxton as the QB, and even then it’s not the optimum response. Fixing their approach to a Gap 8 D was key to the run to the NCG.
The historic Base D for the Hokie’s was/is a Gap 8 with cover 1 or Cover 3 on the back end. They struggled through the early 2010’s dealing with spread teams using this scheme, and like other run first D’s (See Buckeyes post 2005) shifted to 4-2-5 using Cover 6 (or quarter, quarter half) on the back end.
Frankly, they are only fair to middling when they have to run the 4-2-5 and their roster with small fast DL and LB's has no chance stopping the run against a team like the Bucks with Zeke running the rock.
Foster knew that and the back to the future move was really a no brainer. Their approach last season was to start off in the Gap 8, and then mix in classic 46 blitz O rama with Cover 0 as and eschew the 4-2-5 altogether.
The right response and what we’ll see tomorrow is to throw slants, attack the edge in the air and through jet sweeps and run/pass option expecting the the WR’s to generate YAC. You also have to apply liberal doses of the TE in the 5-8 yard “safety” zone. Arguably, the Bucks didn’t have the WR’s or H backs to do this, or a QB who could find the TE on a check down without getting sacked…. in the past.
That was then and tomorrow will be now. I expect the Bucks to run Braxton, throw to Braxton and use him and Samuel to force the Hokie’s out of the Bear and eventually out of the Gap 8.
For some reason I think Bud’s initial response will be to go to a 4x4 stack where he pulls the OLB's off the LOS and realigns the DL. They will attack the 8 gaps on run action but vary how the OLB react to ensure the H back is marked before they go downhill.
This is a HS D but it keeps the gap 8 integrity up front, and gives him more bodies at the second level to try and deal with Braxton and the intermediate passing zones.
The Bucks will adapt and attack with their combo blocking scheme once the bodies have moved off the LOS, and use the TE and start to throw over the top on early downs when the LB’s have to play the run or perish.
I’m thinking 450+ total offense where the only issue is rust and some TO issues.
Final Thinking:
I honestly have no idea how the Bucks will look in 2015 until I see them in live action. If this game plays out how I think it will some flaws will be evident but we will stand up to the pre-season expectations.
