I know everyone except Vegas is thinking IOWA, but that history is much different than this history. This emotional win was on the road, and we hardly played a flawless game on either side of the ball... everyone on the team seems to get that, so we can focus on 2018.
5-0 with two dramatic if uneven performances on the road against (at the time) TOP 15 teams. Our beloved Bucks are hanging at #3 based on the S/P+ stat rankings, while PSU is 8th and TCU dropping to 34th. For future thinking... TTUN is hanging at #7 and Sparty at #21.... If we win out.. we are in... but winning out is not going to be a picnic.
The Hoosiers are 49th overall... so in the TOP HALF.
Most notably INDIANA is ranked # 22nd on D... one spot behind PSU, and 3 behind TCU.
So this isn't your grandfather's (or even Kevin Wilson's) Indiana team. For reference THE OHIO STATE D is 23rd. This shows up on film, no one at OSU is going to be taking the day off on O.
Vegas thinks we are +26.... I'm thinking that's a bit rich. Doable, but I'm not taking that action. Not b/c of a hangover, but b/c we have work to do to get the running game going on O, and if we do that early we are going to sit the vets in Q4.
Bucks 42 - Hoosiers 23.... we cover if the OL and staff have a breakthrough with the running game.
Game Control
Special Teams (Kicking Game) has been OUTSTANDING. A big reason we were able to hang with PSU was due to the punting. And KO coverage has been solid all season. PSU has a DYNAMIC returner... FYI the kid who burned us on the slant pattern. So this was really critical. IU doesn't have THAT DUDE so I see no reason besides lack of focus, which I don't see.
Turnovers: Again has been good all season in terms of our TO's. See no reason for change.
I'm not sure this team has an explosive response on ST + TO's this season, so until I see evidence I won't expect it.
When the Bucks are on O
Dwayne has been able to pass us out of the early fits and starts with the running game minus the QB run until last week, and then the issues became game threatening. This is a run first offense and every team we've played has had success stuffing the RB's at some point (or most of) the game.
I actually think Dwayne might have been able to pass the NITS out of their game plan last week, but the 3 early drops then turned into the yips and we were in for a long night where Wilson and Day earned their $$.
The good news is A) We Won and B) We now know we have to fix this before November comes and C) The WR's and QB showed their grit.
I look for a concerted effort to focus on POWER and ISO/Counter Trey plays into the B/C gap bubble. This was discussed in Ross's outstanding column this week. Please read it for more detail. Basically, this applies the Wison concept of hit them where they 'aint to the run game which has been pounding away into the A/B gaps with VERY limited success. If IU uses an ODD front which I think they will we might see a return of the WHAM play. Heurman made famous with Zeke in the Natty.
Urban wants both Backs to start turning 5-10 yard plays into MORE. I think the clutter at the LOS has caused the both backs to lose the focus on making guys miss downfield. I expect a resolved effort by both Weber and Dobby.
I expect a return to form for Haskins with an emphasis on some intermediate constraint plays like the backside slant and the mesh routes. Gotta expect IU to play tight coverage outside to limit the bubble and this should open up the middle. Also expect a little more TE action. Wilson loves the TE as a safe intermediate weapon. After a nice start the position as waded into it's usual 21st century obscurity.
If the run game goes off we score 50 going away. But I'm expecting that IU D is up to the task to make us work for it.
When the Bucks are on D
Pryor sitting out is just plain shitty. He was really starting to settle in and this would have been a great game to build on. Whint isn't the answer this season. I expect we see Wade all day at either SAF or NICK, where Whint is at SAF on PD's.... then we return to Wade at NICK in H2.
Our DL rotation will be interesting. Dre and Bobby are hurt and Chase played more snaps than he ever has. Those 3 need to be full go for the next month and a half... so the fewer game snaps the better... If those 3 guys are out... the Buckeye D goes from elite to above average.... how Schiano handles the scheme and personnel this week will be critical. I expect IU to hit some when they can have the right play with the right personnel.
The good news is that the youth is getting some valuable game reps which will pay dividends later this season.
I expect they will be more diligent about spying the QB this week, and hope to see some of Browning in that role to let Harrison and Werner play in coverage.
Net net a few breakdowns and the inevitable drive or two is going to keep us from holding IU under 20.
5-0 with two dramatic if uneven performances on the road against (at the time) TOP 15 teams. Our beloved Bucks are hanging at #3 based on the S/P+ stat rankings, while PSU is 8th and TCU dropping to 34th. For future thinking... TTUN is hanging at #7 and Sparty at #21.... If we win out.. we are in... but winning out is not going to be a picnic.
The Hoosiers are 49th overall... so in the TOP HALF.
Most notably INDIANA is ranked # 22nd on D... one spot behind PSU, and 3 behind TCU.
So this isn't your grandfather's (or even Kevin Wilson's) Indiana team. For reference THE OHIO STATE D is 23rd. This shows up on film, no one at OSU is going to be taking the day off on O.
Vegas thinks we are +26.... I'm thinking that's a bit rich. Doable, but I'm not taking that action. Not b/c of a hangover, but b/c we have work to do to get the running game going on O, and if we do that early we are going to sit the vets in Q4.
Bucks 42 - Hoosiers 23.... we cover if the OL and staff have a breakthrough with the running game.
Game Control
Special Teams (Kicking Game) has been OUTSTANDING. A big reason we were able to hang with PSU was due to the punting. And KO coverage has been solid all season. PSU has a DYNAMIC returner... FYI the kid who burned us on the slant pattern. So this was really critical. IU doesn't have THAT DUDE so I see no reason besides lack of focus, which I don't see.
Turnovers: Again has been good all season in terms of our TO's. See no reason for change.
I'm not sure this team has an explosive response on ST + TO's this season, so until I see evidence I won't expect it.
When the Bucks are on O
Dwayne has been able to pass us out of the early fits and starts with the running game minus the QB run until last week, and then the issues became game threatening. This is a run first offense and every team we've played has had success stuffing the RB's at some point (or most of) the game.
I actually think Dwayne might have been able to pass the NITS out of their game plan last week, but the 3 early drops then turned into the yips and we were in for a long night where Wilson and Day earned their $$.
The good news is A) We Won and B) We now know we have to fix this before November comes and C) The WR's and QB showed their grit.
I look for a concerted effort to focus on POWER and ISO/Counter Trey plays into the B/C gap bubble. This was discussed in Ross's outstanding column this week. Please read it for more detail. Basically, this applies the Wison concept of hit them where they 'aint to the run game which has been pounding away into the A/B gaps with VERY limited success. If IU uses an ODD front which I think they will we might see a return of the WHAM play. Heurman made famous with Zeke in the Natty.
Urban wants both Backs to start turning 5-10 yard plays into MORE. I think the clutter at the LOS has caused the both backs to lose the focus on making guys miss downfield. I expect a resolved effort by both Weber and Dobby.
I expect a return to form for Haskins with an emphasis on some intermediate constraint plays like the backside slant and the mesh routes. Gotta expect IU to play tight coverage outside to limit the bubble and this should open up the middle. Also expect a little more TE action. Wilson loves the TE as a safe intermediate weapon. After a nice start the position as waded into it's usual 21st century obscurity.
If the run game goes off we score 50 going away. But I'm expecting that IU D is up to the task to make us work for it.
When the Bucks are on D
Pryor sitting out is just plain shitty. He was really starting to settle in and this would have been a great game to build on. Whint isn't the answer this season. I expect we see Wade all day at either SAF or NICK, where Whint is at SAF on PD's.... then we return to Wade at NICK in H2.
Our DL rotation will be interesting. Dre and Bobby are hurt and Chase played more snaps than he ever has. Those 3 need to be full go for the next month and a half... so the fewer game snaps the better... If those 3 guys are out... the Buckeye D goes from elite to above average.... how Schiano handles the scheme and personnel this week will be critical. I expect IU to hit some when they can have the right play with the right personnel.
The good news is that the youth is getting some valuable game reps which will pay dividends later this season.
I expect they will be more diligent about spying the QB this week, and hope to see some of Browning in that role to let Harrison and Werner play in coverage.
Net net a few breakdowns and the inevitable drive or two is going to keep us from holding IU under 20.
