We’re at the top of the turn, and I feel GOOD!!!
I could feel better but this last game let me step back from the ledge.
Seriously, I wasn’t that close but the frustration for the way Urb was micromanaging things was getting to me… and I was concerned he may have taken things too far. I’ll remain a bit concerned until I see a couple of games in a row on the right trajectory but Saturday was a good start.
Also seriously, when the Bucks went 3 and out to start the game I said to myself… put the computer down and step away from the keyboard! Then on the next series we threw a perfect quick hitch to Mikey …..and he dropped it …...and I just laughed. From there on the O rolled.
I had the Bucks 42-14 and the O outperformed my expectations BY A TON, and the D wasn’t as far off as the score…. all in all this was a game to build on. The initial CFP rankings don’t matter much, but just for good measure I hope Urban let’s loose of the reins this Saturday. It’s gonna take a command performance to rinse out the taste from the Indiana Game. It's not time to break out the whip, but he needs to let the team gallop.
Quick D Notes
I said pregame that the Terps going full schoolyard might cause us some issues, and they certainly did. So I’m not that wigged out. The only real Nit IMO is the drive we gave up at the end of the half.
The staff and D got really lax there, and that is just not something they can let seep into the zeitgeist. Starting out sleepy for a nooner versus a crap team is one thing. Letting them score after the O has asserted itself 30 minutes later is another. This was the oppty for the D staff to scrimmage as the O had complete control after drive #2, so be it.
Quick O Notes
That was a VERY GOOD performance. The staff came in with a fairly complete plan for the first time since game #1, and gave us a peek for how this team can look if they actually set them up properly.
Drive Success Rate was very good with 8 successful drives (2 FD’s or a score) on 14 possessions (minus the end of game = 13 and, the drive at the end of the half only had 47 secs and we got one 1st down). I’ll grade this 8/12 which is right at the ⅔ ratio needed to control the game. We had 31 first downs on 13 possessions (2.3 per), which is a far bit better than 13 on 17 (0.76per) from the IU game… THREE FOLD Improvement.
We ran and very balanced passing concept and utilized the whole field in the running game. Specifically hit inside with counter Trey for some nice chunks… and could have done it more… and outside with good success. No big runs, but Maryland was giving us the chunks...and we were happy to take them.
CJ was OUTSTANDING: 75% passing on 21 of 28 and a Mikey drop away from sniffing 80, with production of 291 @ 10.4 per attempt. I don’t recall a touch pass so that was a legit total across the board. He also had six carries for 19 and put his shoulder down on a couple. The rushing yards don’t matter as much as the attempts IMO. He did a fantastic job of looking the secondary off deep, and if there was no single coverage dropping the ball off to Zeke... they might start running this with Braxton on 3rd and 4ish starting with 4 wide following a few Counter Trey to set things up.
Distribution to the top playmakers was OUTSTANDING. Zeke, Mikey, Jalin and Braxton combined for 425 yards of offense and averaged 106 yards each with tops of 154 total for Zeke and both Jalin and Braxton at ~80 with Mikey at 107. Jalin and Braxton were both used as down field threats with excellent results.
Samuel and Paris didn’t see the rock, and neither did either TE. For that to change we have to boost the drive success rate (we need more plays on drives that are moving the chains), b/c the Top 4 need to see all the touches they had this week.
One thing that could improve distribution and likely the overall RZ scheme with a tougher opponent is to tweak JTB’s 12 red zone rushing attempts in half. Not sure how many go to Curtis or Paris and/or how many are passing attempts, but it would give you touches to work with. I have no problem with last week as they needed to get this concept integrated with the lowest possible risk.
As of now I’m renting … not buying the QB tango in the RZ. I’ll pay top dollar right now, but want the ability to return it with no questions asked.
FINAL THINKING
We’re at the Top of the Turn for the RS, but it’s clear that Urban is playing for a 15 game season not 12. He WANTS the team to be healthy and peaking in 6 weeks, so they can commence what will be a wicked 5 game gauntlet if all goes well.
It’s tough to manage that with 100 twenty year old kids, so as frustrated as I might be with 13 of 17 FD’s in Bloomington, I know what he’s trying to do.There is a reason why he’s still fiddling with both QB’s, and the coaches on both sides of the ball are still calling a scrimmage at some level.
That said we are not CLOSE to where we need to be, and this is borne out by the advanced stats which correlate pretty closely with the eye test.
Using Football Outsider Overall Ratings we ended 2014 as follows: #1 in Overall Success Rate and #1 with the Fremeau Efficiency Index. Both measures combine drive and possession efficiency with opponent strength factored in. The Offense was #1 and the Defense was #11 with individual unit Success Rating and #7 in both O and D unit FEI.
The Combined FBO Stats last season had OSU, Alabama and Oregon #1, 2 and 3… and FSU at #15. As Stats go that’s pretty solid correlation!!
After 6 games thus far we are
#28 Overall Success Rate, and #10 with Overall FEI which indicates how we have done with possession efficiency so far and runs a forecast of where we end up based on remaining SoS w/resp to the same indicators.
The Offenses SR is #42 and the D is #26.This isn’t the end of the world, but it clearly indicates that there is WORK TO DO on both sides of the ball. We aren’t controlling our games even though we are winning by a wide margin.
I’m not sure what the committee is going to make of all this since all but one of these games was mostly meaningless, but based on last season they won't bee too keen on the total lack of game control in all but game #1 and #6.
I certainly hope that Urban is ready to chuck out the wet charcoal and start cooking with gas. I think they will be watching Saturday Night….
I could feel better but this last game let me step back from the ledge.
Seriously, I wasn’t that close but the frustration for the way Urb was micromanaging things was getting to me… and I was concerned he may have taken things too far. I’ll remain a bit concerned until I see a couple of games in a row on the right trajectory but Saturday was a good start.
Also seriously, when the Bucks went 3 and out to start the game I said to myself… put the computer down and step away from the keyboard! Then on the next series we threw a perfect quick hitch to Mikey …..and he dropped it …...and I just laughed. From there on the O rolled.
I had the Bucks 42-14 and the O outperformed my expectations BY A TON, and the D wasn’t as far off as the score…. all in all this was a game to build on. The initial CFP rankings don’t matter much, but just for good measure I hope Urban let’s loose of the reins this Saturday. It’s gonna take a command performance to rinse out the taste from the Indiana Game. It's not time to break out the whip, but he needs to let the team gallop.
Quick D Notes
I said pregame that the Terps going full schoolyard might cause us some issues, and they certainly did. So I’m not that wigged out. The only real Nit IMO is the drive we gave up at the end of the half.
The staff and D got really lax there, and that is just not something they can let seep into the zeitgeist. Starting out sleepy for a nooner versus a crap team is one thing. Letting them score after the O has asserted itself 30 minutes later is another. This was the oppty for the D staff to scrimmage as the O had complete control after drive #2, so be it.
Quick O Notes
That was a VERY GOOD performance. The staff came in with a fairly complete plan for the first time since game #1, and gave us a peek for how this team can look if they actually set them up properly.
Drive Success Rate was very good with 8 successful drives (2 FD’s or a score) on 14 possessions (minus the end of game = 13 and, the drive at the end of the half only had 47 secs and we got one 1st down). I’ll grade this 8/12 which is right at the ⅔ ratio needed to control the game. We had 31 first downs on 13 possessions (2.3 per), which is a far bit better than 13 on 17 (0.76per) from the IU game… THREE FOLD Improvement.
We ran and very balanced passing concept and utilized the whole field in the running game. Specifically hit inside with counter Trey for some nice chunks… and could have done it more… and outside with good success. No big runs, but Maryland was giving us the chunks...and we were happy to take them.
CJ was OUTSTANDING: 75% passing on 21 of 28 and a Mikey drop away from sniffing 80, with production of 291 @ 10.4 per attempt. I don’t recall a touch pass so that was a legit total across the board. He also had six carries for 19 and put his shoulder down on a couple. The rushing yards don’t matter as much as the attempts IMO. He did a fantastic job of looking the secondary off deep, and if there was no single coverage dropping the ball off to Zeke... they might start running this with Braxton on 3rd and 4ish starting with 4 wide following a few Counter Trey to set things up.
Distribution to the top playmakers was OUTSTANDING. Zeke, Mikey, Jalin and Braxton combined for 425 yards of offense and averaged 106 yards each with tops of 154 total for Zeke and both Jalin and Braxton at ~80 with Mikey at 107. Jalin and Braxton were both used as down field threats with excellent results.
Samuel and Paris didn’t see the rock, and neither did either TE. For that to change we have to boost the drive success rate (we need more plays on drives that are moving the chains), b/c the Top 4 need to see all the touches they had this week.
One thing that could improve distribution and likely the overall RZ scheme with a tougher opponent is to tweak JTB’s 12 red zone rushing attempts in half. Not sure how many go to Curtis or Paris and/or how many are passing attempts, but it would give you touches to work with. I have no problem with last week as they needed to get this concept integrated with the lowest possible risk.
As of now I’m renting … not buying the QB tango in the RZ. I’ll pay top dollar right now, but want the ability to return it with no questions asked.
FINAL THINKING
We’re at the Top of the Turn for the RS, but it’s clear that Urban is playing for a 15 game season not 12. He WANTS the team to be healthy and peaking in 6 weeks, so they can commence what will be a wicked 5 game gauntlet if all goes well.
It’s tough to manage that with 100 twenty year old kids, so as frustrated as I might be with 13 of 17 FD’s in Bloomington, I know what he’s trying to do.There is a reason why he’s still fiddling with both QB’s, and the coaches on both sides of the ball are still calling a scrimmage at some level.
That said we are not CLOSE to where we need to be, and this is borne out by the advanced stats which correlate pretty closely with the eye test.
Using Football Outsider Overall Ratings we ended 2014 as follows: #1 in Overall Success Rate and #1 with the Fremeau Efficiency Index. Both measures combine drive and possession efficiency with opponent strength factored in. The Offense was #1 and the Defense was #11 with individual unit Success Rating and #7 in both O and D unit FEI.
The Combined FBO Stats last season had OSU, Alabama and Oregon #1, 2 and 3… and FSU at #15. As Stats go that’s pretty solid correlation!!
After 6 games thus far we are
#28 Overall Success Rate, and #10 with Overall FEI which indicates how we have done with possession efficiency so far and runs a forecast of where we end up based on remaining SoS w/resp to the same indicators.
The Offenses SR is #42 and the D is #26.This isn’t the end of the world, but it clearly indicates that there is WORK TO DO on both sides of the ball. We aren’t controlling our games even though we are winning by a wide margin.
I’m not sure what the committee is going to make of all this since all but one of these games was mostly meaningless, but based on last season they won't bee too keen on the total lack of game control in all but game #1 and #6.
I certainly hope that Urban is ready to chuck out the wet charcoal and start cooking with gas. I think they will be watching Saturday Night….
