Here it is....Whisky Week. This season it's ALMOST as anticipated as TTUN Week. And all signs besides Whisky shanking their game against the Illini suggest this will be a "whale of a game".
From the look test to the detailed stat sheets these teams are very evenly matched.
The 2+ TD point spread might be justified by home field advantage along with the discrepancy in the teams detailed stats, but I think the real reason for high confidence from Vegas and the CFB public has been the way OSU has been playing and the Whisky loss. These teams are more even than a 14.5 spread.
I recall JT answered a question about which athlete TGII reminded him of and his answer was "Secretariat". For JT that might seem like outrageous hyperbole, but if you watched a TGII TD run it was like Secretariat's Triple Crown races. The horse started out fast but other horses were close and then WOOSH he was GONE.
My take on OSU 2019 is that the team is playing like that too, but the better metaphor is Mike Tyson's championship fights early in his career. He was either knocking the opponent out in about 90 seconds, or if they made it into round two they didn't make it to round 3. The way he won and the Bucks are winning was then and is now breath taking. Once Tyson hit stride it was ...Boom Boom Boom and its over. Punishing, and exhilarating unless you were the other team or one of their fans.
This game shapes up like a heavyweight bout. And I think this will be the Bucks As Tyson versus Whisky as Bobbick... only he might last till round 3. And yes I know about Buster Douglas LoL. This isn't that fight.
The SP+ has the Bucks at #1 and Whisky at #7. The FEI has them at #1 and #4.
If you use the SP+ overall "score" the Bucks are at 33.3 and Whisky at 24.7, so a solid TD difference. Add in home field and you can sniff the point spread.... but none of the overall analytics indicate the Bucks cover a 14.5 spread.
However if you look more closely the Bucks have played a tougher schedule SOS ranking for the Bucks is 40 while Whisky SoS is ranked 80. The Bucks are also playing much better special teams ranking #2 versus 82.
Both D's play very close to each other, where the Bucks have played a tougher schedule Opp Ranking of 86 versus 116.
So both team's D will be facing a whole different level of competition.
But the big difference with the two offenses is the Bucks have faced better comp with Opp Ranking of 12 versus 31.
So both have played better D comp overall and both teams have played Top10 defenses.
The Bucks are better First Down rate Bucks at 6th vs Whisky 17th and Explosive Plays Bucks 8th and Whisky 35th.
The Explosive Plays relative to competition and their own D is what differentiates the Bucks so far in 2019.
The only team close to hitting a top 10 Explosive play rating against Top 10 D is Of all teams Iowa State.
There is one chink in the Bucks O so far and that's failed plays... or Busted Drives. The Bucks are 34th and Whisky 2nd. So the drives where Dobbins gets stuffed, Fields get sacked or we take a holding call and then punt. Ughh.
I think we avoid those on Saturday ourselves and force Whisky into more than a few, and at some point in the contest... and it might take until H2 we go full Tyson on Whisky and Boom Boom Boom.
How it Ends Up
Bucks 41, Whisky 24
When the Bucks are on O
Whisky will get some stops but the Bucks O is too diverse and we will be able to drive and score and hit explosive plays and score.
The one game the Bucks were focused on avoiding failed plays (Cincy) they were outstanding. I honestly don't think they took Sparty seriously enough, and NW proved that they have to focus on first down effectiveness.
In some ways this is Jonathan Taylor versus Fields AND Dobbins and Cephus versus Olave, Hill, Victor and Wilson... and at some point it will be too much for Whisky.
The season has had this flurry in H1, and I still think Q2 is where it comes but Whisky might be able to hold it off until Q3... but at some point the dam is going to break.
When the Bucks are on D
I don't see J Taylor getting more than 120 yards and that won't be enough to keep up with the Bucks O. If the Bucks start their flurry early, then Taylor's impact will be less.
They key to me is the passing game.
Whisky will have NO answer for Chase and the gang, so they will have to throw quick and the Bucks offer a style and talent level Whisky hasn't seen so far.
The triad of Wade, Okudah and Arnette/Brown don't give Cephus a good matchup.
They may try Brown if Damon is out and that may be an opening, but it will be SMALL.
The match up that's a concern is Jake Ferguson..... the TE versus Werner.
A change up I wouldn't be surprised with would be to see them slide Werner to Mike, rotate Wade to MoF safety and put Fuller on the TE on passing downs.... or more frequently if we get a lead.
Or leave Wade on the Slot and put Proctor on the TE with Werner and Harrison in the middle.
Others may have some other ideas... But ultimately, I think it's gonna be tough sledding for Whisky outside of a couple of drives... and a late surge.
GO BUCKS
From the look test to the detailed stat sheets these teams are very evenly matched.
The 2+ TD point spread might be justified by home field advantage along with the discrepancy in the teams detailed stats, but I think the real reason for high confidence from Vegas and the CFB public has been the way OSU has been playing and the Whisky loss. These teams are more even than a 14.5 spread.
I recall JT answered a question about which athlete TGII reminded him of and his answer was "Secretariat". For JT that might seem like outrageous hyperbole, but if you watched a TGII TD run it was like Secretariat's Triple Crown races. The horse started out fast but other horses were close and then WOOSH he was GONE.
My take on OSU 2019 is that the team is playing like that too, but the better metaphor is Mike Tyson's championship fights early in his career. He was either knocking the opponent out in about 90 seconds, or if they made it into round two they didn't make it to round 3. The way he won and the Bucks are winning was then and is now breath taking. Once Tyson hit stride it was ...Boom Boom Boom and its over. Punishing, and exhilarating unless you were the other team or one of their fans.
This game shapes up like a heavyweight bout. And I think this will be the Bucks As Tyson versus Whisky as Bobbick... only he might last till round 3. And yes I know about Buster Douglas LoL. This isn't that fight.
The SP+ has the Bucks at #1 and Whisky at #7. The FEI has them at #1 and #4.
If you use the SP+ overall "score" the Bucks are at 33.3 and Whisky at 24.7, so a solid TD difference. Add in home field and you can sniff the point spread.... but none of the overall analytics indicate the Bucks cover a 14.5 spread.
However if you look more closely the Bucks have played a tougher schedule SOS ranking for the Bucks is 40 while Whisky SoS is ranked 80. The Bucks are also playing much better special teams ranking #2 versus 82.
Both D's play very close to each other, where the Bucks have played a tougher schedule Opp Ranking of 86 versus 116.
So both team's D will be facing a whole different level of competition.
But the big difference with the two offenses is the Bucks have faced better comp with Opp Ranking of 12 versus 31.
So both have played better D comp overall and both teams have played Top10 defenses.
The Bucks are better First Down rate Bucks at 6th vs Whisky 17th and Explosive Plays Bucks 8th and Whisky 35th.
The Explosive Plays relative to competition and their own D is what differentiates the Bucks so far in 2019.
The only team close to hitting a top 10 Explosive play rating against Top 10 D is Of all teams Iowa State.
There is one chink in the Bucks O so far and that's failed plays... or Busted Drives. The Bucks are 34th and Whisky 2nd. So the drives where Dobbins gets stuffed, Fields get sacked or we take a holding call and then punt. Ughh.
I think we avoid those on Saturday ourselves and force Whisky into more than a few, and at some point in the contest... and it might take until H2 we go full Tyson on Whisky and Boom Boom Boom.
How it Ends Up
Bucks 41, Whisky 24
When the Bucks are on O
Whisky will get some stops but the Bucks O is too diverse and we will be able to drive and score and hit explosive plays and score.
The one game the Bucks were focused on avoiding failed plays (Cincy) they were outstanding. I honestly don't think they took Sparty seriously enough, and NW proved that they have to focus on first down effectiveness.
In some ways this is Jonathan Taylor versus Fields AND Dobbins and Cephus versus Olave, Hill, Victor and Wilson... and at some point it will be too much for Whisky.
The season has had this flurry in H1, and I still think Q2 is where it comes but Whisky might be able to hold it off until Q3... but at some point the dam is going to break.
When the Bucks are on D
I don't see J Taylor getting more than 120 yards and that won't be enough to keep up with the Bucks O. If the Bucks start their flurry early, then Taylor's impact will be less.
They key to me is the passing game.
Whisky will have NO answer for Chase and the gang, so they will have to throw quick and the Bucks offer a style and talent level Whisky hasn't seen so far.
The triad of Wade, Okudah and Arnette/Brown don't give Cephus a good matchup.
They may try Brown if Damon is out and that may be an opening, but it will be SMALL.
The match up that's a concern is Jake Ferguson..... the TE versus Werner.
A change up I wouldn't be surprised with would be to see them slide Werner to Mike, rotate Wade to MoF safety and put Fuller on the TE on passing downs.... or more frequently if we get a lead.
Or leave Wade on the Slot and put Proctor on the TE with Werner and Harrison in the middle.
Others may have some other ideas... But ultimately, I think it's gonna be tough sledding for Whisky outside of a couple of drives... and a late surge.
GO BUCKS
