Asia & Pacific
A year into the trade war, China learns to ride out Trump’s turbulence
By Anna Fifield
August 27 at 8:39 AM PT
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting alongside Group of 20 talks in Osaka, Japan, in June. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)
BEIJING — Keeping China guessing is all part of a strategy to gain the upper hand in the trade war, President Trump suggested after a whiplash-inducing series of contradictory and confusing statements about relations between the world’s two largest economies.
“Sorry! It’s the way I negotiate,” he told reporters Monday in Biarritz, France, at the end of the Group of Seven meeting. “It’s done very well for me over the years. It’s doing very well for the country.”
But in China, there is relatively little confusion about Trump these days.
More than a year into the trade war, officials and analysts feel that they’ve got a handle on the tweeter-in-chief and how to ride out the ups and downs.
“I think that there is a lot of fatigue with President Trump’s ‘art of the deal,’ ” said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization and an adviser to China’s cabinet.
“It’s like a roller coaster. Buenos Aires, Osaka, Shanghai. He says one thing one day then hits the world with a surprise the next day,” Wang said, referring to agreements that Trump or his officials have struck, only to do an about-turn shortly afterward. “The more they deal with him, the more they figure him out.”
While speaking at the G7 summit in France on Aug. 26, President Trump claimed China had contacted U.S. trade officials to say Beijing wanted to return to the negotiating table. (Reuters)
That also has helped shape a master plan for dealing with the Trump churn.
“I think they’ve decided Trump is a vacillating guy who can’t figure out what he wants and gets spooked every time the stock market goes down or someone accuses him of not being tough,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy in Beijing.
“Although there are problems in China, they believe they have their economy under control, more so than Trump. They think he is more vulnerable to a slowdown and that they can afford to wait him out,” he said.
[Trump retaliates in trade war by demanding companies cut ties with China]
After teetering several times on the brink of resolution, the trade war between the world’s economic superpowers appears to have entered a dangerous new phase this month, with new rounds of retaliatory tariffs and a demand from Trump that U.S. companies stop doing business with China.
That has caused alarm across the globe, with fears that the war could help tip leading economies such as Japan and Germany into recession and create new head winds for the American economy. China’s growth rate has, meanwhile, slowed to its lowest rate in three decades.
China’s government, like many around the world, was initially mystified at Trump’s unconventional presidential style, and the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is rumored to have come in for some criticism at a 2018 retreat for underestimating Trump’s resolve to tackle China’s trading practices.
But emerging last week from this year’s Communist Party confab at the beach resort of Beidaihe, China’s leadership appears to have decided to hunker down. In the land of Sun Tzu and “The Art of War,” many now seem unimpressed with the art of Trump’s dealmaking.
“What’s the point of calling Xi Jinping ‘a good friend’ and ‘a great leader’ but still increasing tariffs?” asked Yao Xinchao, a trade professor at the University of International Business and Economics.
After long saying trade wars are easy to win, President Trump on Aug. 25 said he was having “second thoughts” on his trade war with China. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)
“He’s a 70-ish-year-old man but speaks like a 7-year-old kid. We just can’t listen to what he says now. I think Chinese leaders have realized this, too — not listening to him but watching what he does and then countering,” Yao said.
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at the Renmin University, shares a similarly disdainful view. “He is a real estate developer; he is a profiteer in the eyes of the Chinese people,” he said.
[‘Protectionist bullying’: China denounces Trump administration’s latest tariff hikes]
But the bottom line remains that China, which is experiencing a marked economic slowdown, wants a deal to resolve the trade war.
“The trade dispute between China and the U.S. should be resolved through dialogue and consultations,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Tuesday, adding that the United States’s “maximum pressure approach hurts both sides and is not in the least constructive.”
“We hope that the U.S. can exercise restraint, return to reason, and demonstrate sincerity in order to facilitate further consultations on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefits,” Geng said.
The question now is how the two sides find a way out of the standoff.
Wei Jianguo, a former vice minister of commerce, said that Trump’s efforts to browbeat countries into a deal — like Canada, Mexico and Japan — will not work with China.
“We have seen and understand Trump’s style,” Wei said. “If he thinks he can secure an advantage for the U.S. and wear China down by exerting various kinds of extreme pressure, he’s dreaming. It’s impossible.”
Instead, China needs some face-saving and some respect, said Wang of the Center for China and Globalization.
“He can’t come at us with a stick in his hands,” he said. “The way Trump talks really jeopardizes the whole atmosphere.”
[With the U.S.-China trade war escalating, Trump arrives at G-7 with a list of grievances]
The longer this pattern continues, the more China becomes concerned that any deal won’t stick.
“Now China understands him thoroughly and knows that inconsistency is his nature,” said Wang of Renmin University. “Even if an agreement is signed, he may not implement it well. But, without an agreement, he does this over and over again, which is also very annoying.”
Many analysts expect the dispute to continue to November at least, when the two leaders are likely to meet at a summit of Pacific Rim nations in Chile.
Before then, Xi is facing a growing crisis in Hong Kong — another front where he can’t afford to look weak — and is preparing to celebrate in the first week of October the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party’s takeover of China.
In the meantime, a deal appears to be moving farther away.
“With each step that Trump has taken since May, he has reduced the chances of striking a deal,” Kroeber said, referring to the tariffs and threats to blacklist Huawei Technologies. “He keeps throwing in new things that he would then have to take away to get a deal.”
Liu Yang, Wang Yuan and Lyric Li contributed to this report.
[Trump insists trade talks have restarted with China, but details are elusive]
[Mixed signals, reversals cloud second day of G-7 summit]
[Trump drops pretense of friendship with China’s Xi Jinping, calls him an ‘enemy’]
[Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world]
[Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news]
Anna Fifield is The Washington Post’s bureau chief in Beijing, covering greater China. She was the Post's bureau chief in Tokyo between 2014 and 2018, writing about Japan and the two Koreas. She is the author of "The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un."
Democracy Dies in Darkness
A year into the trade war, China learns to ride out Trump’s turbulence
By Anna Fifield
August 27 at 8:39 AM PT
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a bilateral meeting alongside Group of 20 talks in Osaka, Japan, in June. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)
BEIJING — Keeping China guessing is all part of a strategy to gain the upper hand in the trade war, President Trump suggested after a whiplash-inducing series of contradictory and confusing statements about relations between the world’s two largest economies.
“Sorry! It’s the way I negotiate,” he told reporters Monday in Biarritz, France, at the end of the Group of Seven meeting. “It’s done very well for me over the years. It’s doing very well for the country.”
But in China, there is relatively little confusion about Trump these days.
More than a year into the trade war, officials and analysts feel that they’ve got a handle on the tweeter-in-chief and how to ride out the ups and downs.
“I think that there is a lot of fatigue with President Trump’s ‘art of the deal,’ ” said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization and an adviser to China’s cabinet.
“It’s like a roller coaster. Buenos Aires, Osaka, Shanghai. He says one thing one day then hits the world with a surprise the next day,” Wang said, referring to agreements that Trump or his officials have struck, only to do an about-turn shortly afterward. “The more they deal with him, the more they figure him out.”
While speaking at the G7 summit in France on Aug. 26, President Trump claimed China had contacted U.S. trade officials to say Beijing wanted to return to the negotiating table. (Reuters)
That also has helped shape a master plan for dealing with the Trump churn.
“I think they’ve decided Trump is a vacillating guy who can’t figure out what he wants and gets spooked every time the stock market goes down or someone accuses him of not being tough,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy in Beijing.
“Although there are problems in China, they believe they have their economy under control, more so than Trump. They think he is more vulnerable to a slowdown and that they can afford to wait him out,” he said.
[Trump retaliates in trade war by demanding companies cut ties with China]
After teetering several times on the brink of resolution, the trade war between the world’s economic superpowers appears to have entered a dangerous new phase this month, with new rounds of retaliatory tariffs and a demand from Trump that U.S. companies stop doing business with China.
That has caused alarm across the globe, with fears that the war could help tip leading economies such as Japan and Germany into recession and create new head winds for the American economy. China’s growth rate has, meanwhile, slowed to its lowest rate in three decades.
China’s government, like many around the world, was initially mystified at Trump’s unconventional presidential style, and the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is rumored to have come in for some criticism at a 2018 retreat for underestimating Trump’s resolve to tackle China’s trading practices.
But emerging last week from this year’s Communist Party confab at the beach resort of Beidaihe, China’s leadership appears to have decided to hunker down. In the land of Sun Tzu and “The Art of War,” many now seem unimpressed with the art of Trump’s dealmaking.
“What’s the point of calling Xi Jinping ‘a good friend’ and ‘a great leader’ but still increasing tariffs?” asked Yao Xinchao, a trade professor at the University of International Business and Economics.
After long saying trade wars are easy to win, President Trump on Aug. 25 said he was having “second thoughts” on his trade war with China. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)
“He’s a 70-ish-year-old man but speaks like a 7-year-old kid. We just can’t listen to what he says now. I think Chinese leaders have realized this, too — not listening to him but watching what he does and then countering,” Yao said.
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at the Renmin University, shares a similarly disdainful view. “He is a real estate developer; he is a profiteer in the eyes of the Chinese people,” he said.
[‘Protectionist bullying’: China denounces Trump administration’s latest tariff hikes]
But the bottom line remains that China, which is experiencing a marked economic slowdown, wants a deal to resolve the trade war.
“The trade dispute between China and the U.S. should be resolved through dialogue and consultations,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said Tuesday, adding that the United States’s “maximum pressure approach hurts both sides and is not in the least constructive.”
“We hope that the U.S. can exercise restraint, return to reason, and demonstrate sincerity in order to facilitate further consultations on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefits,” Geng said.
The question now is how the two sides find a way out of the standoff.
Wei Jianguo, a former vice minister of commerce, said that Trump’s efforts to browbeat countries into a deal — like Canada, Mexico and Japan — will not work with China.
“We have seen and understand Trump’s style,” Wei said. “If he thinks he can secure an advantage for the U.S. and wear China down by exerting various kinds of extreme pressure, he’s dreaming. It’s impossible.”
Instead, China needs some face-saving and some respect, said Wang of the Center for China and Globalization.
“He can’t come at us with a stick in his hands,” he said. “The way Trump talks really jeopardizes the whole atmosphere.”
[With the U.S.-China trade war escalating, Trump arrives at G-7 with a list of grievances]
The longer this pattern continues, the more China becomes concerned that any deal won’t stick.
“Now China understands him thoroughly and knows that inconsistency is his nature,” said Wang of Renmin University. “Even if an agreement is signed, he may not implement it well. But, without an agreement, he does this over and over again, which is also very annoying.”
Many analysts expect the dispute to continue to November at least, when the two leaders are likely to meet at a summit of Pacific Rim nations in Chile.
Before then, Xi is facing a growing crisis in Hong Kong — another front where he can’t afford to look weak — and is preparing to celebrate in the first week of October the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party’s takeover of China.
In the meantime, a deal appears to be moving farther away.
“With each step that Trump has taken since May, he has reduced the chances of striking a deal,” Kroeber said, referring to the tariffs and threats to blacklist Huawei Technologies. “He keeps throwing in new things that he would then have to take away to get a deal.”
Liu Yang, Wang Yuan and Lyric Li contributed to this report.
[Trump insists trade talks have restarted with China, but details are elusive]
[Mixed signals, reversals cloud second day of G-7 summit]
[Trump drops pretense of friendship with China’s Xi Jinping, calls him an ‘enemy’]
[Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world]
[Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news]
Anna Fifield is The Washington Post’s bureau chief in Beijing, covering greater China. She was the Post's bureau chief in Tokyo between 2014 and 2018, writing about Japan and the two Koreas. She is the author of "The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un."
Democracy Dies in Darkness
