From an unnamed 4 letter publication.
Some teams of interest.
1. Florida State5. Michigan
14. USC
32. LSU
36. Clemson
48. Ohio State
56. Penn St
80. Georgia
125. Alabama
Returning Production For FBS Teams In 2023
| TEAM | RET. PROD. | OFF. (RK) | DEF. (RK) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Florida St. | 87% | 80% (12) | 94% (2) |
| 2. Kansas | 85% | 91% (1) | 80% (10) |
| 3. FAU | 83% | 68% (59) | 99% (1) |
| 4. Wyoming | 83% | 82% (7) | 84% (4) |
| 5. Michigan | 81% | 84% (4) | 78% (16) |
| 6. UConn | 80% | 89% (2) | 71% (39) |
| 7. Texas A&M | 80% | 82% (8) | 77% (19) |
| 8. Boston Coll. | 78% | 78% (17) | 79% (13) |
| 9. Missouri | 78% | 77% (25) | 80% (9) |
| 10. Temple | 77% | 79% (15) | 76% (22) |
| 11. Toledo | 77% | 82% (6) | 72% (32) |
| 12. NIU | 77% | 75% (33) | 79% (12) |
| 13. S. Alabama | 77% | 71% (50) | 82% (5) |
| 14. USC | 76% | 75% (32) | 78% (15) |
| 15. UMass | 76% | 77% (23) | 75% (26) |
| 16. Utah | 76% | 83% (5) | 69% (45) |
| 17. Navy | 75% | 76% (29) | 74% (29) |
| 18. FIU | 74% | 71% (52) | 78% (14) |
| 19. Texas | 74% | 85% (3) | 63% (68) |
| 20. N. Texas | 74% | 76% (27) | 71% (36) |
| 21. Rice | 73% | 72% (42) | 74% (28) |
| 22. Washington | 73% | 74% (34) | 73% (30) |
| 23. Rutgers | 73% | 73% (37) | 72% (31) |
| 24. Syracuse | 73% | 73% (39) | 72% (33) |
| 25. Coastal Caro. | 72% | 79% (14) | 65% (60) |
| 26. La. Tech | 72% | 62% (80) | 81% (6) |
| 27. Wisconsin | 72% | 75% (30) | 68% (48) |
| 28. Auburn | 71% | 72% (44) | 71% (38) |
| 29. Sam Houston | 71% | 68% (57) | 75% (27) |
| 30. Ole Miss | 71% | 80% (13) | 62% (69) |
| 31. Tulane | 71% | 73% (35) | 68% (46) |
| 32. LSU | 71% | 81% (10) | 60% (72) |
| 33. Duke | 71% | 82% (9) | 60% (73) |
| 34. JMU | 70% | 60% (90) | 81% (7) |
| 35. Miami | 70% | 62% (82) | 77% (18) |
| 36. Clemson | 69% | 64% (73) | 75% (23) |
| 37. MTSU | 69% | 52% (107) | 86% (3) |
| 38. Va. Tech | 69% | 73% (41) | 65% (59) |
| 39. Nebraska | 69% | 72% (45) | 66% (51) |
| 40. Miami-OH | 69% | 61% (87) | 76% (21) |
| 41. Indiana | 69% | 65% (63) | 72% (34) |
| 42. UNLV | 69% | 71% (47) | 66% (57) |
| 43. N. Carolina | 68% | 69% (53) | 68% (47) |
| 44. Notre Dame | 68% | 65% (67) | 72% (35) |
| 45. Michigan St. | 68% | 80% (11) | 56% (83) |
| 46. California | 68% | 58% (92) | 78% (17) |
| 47. Ga. Tech | 67% | 69% (55) | 66% (54) |
| 48. Ohio St. | 67% | 57% (97) | 77% (20) |
| 49. Boise St. | 67% | 78% (16) | 55% (85) |
| 50. Louisiana | 66% | 78% (22) | 54% (88) |
| 51. UCF | 66% | 62% (78) | 69% (43) |
| 52. CMU | 66% | 51% (110) | 80% (8) |
| 53. Oregon St. | 65% | 78% (20) | 52% (92) |
| 54. Oregon | 65% | 65% (65) | 65% (58) |
| 55. UTEP | 65% | 67% (62) | 63% (65) |
| 56. Penn St. | 65% | 55% (102) | 75% (24) |
| 57. Purdue | 65% | 71% (49) | 59% (76) |
| 58. Vanderbilt | 65% | 73% (38) | 56% (80) |
| 59. UCLA | 64% | 54% (104) | 75% (25) |
| 60. Army | 64% | 64% (70) | 64% (64) |
| 61. New Mexico | 64% | 78% (18) | 49% (103) |
| 62. Colorado St. | 64% | 62% (84) | 66% (53) |
| 63. NMSU | 64% | 77% (26) | 51% (98) |
| 64. Texas Tech | 64% | 75% (31) | 52% (93) |
| 65. Maryland | 64% | 64% (68) | 63% (66) |
| 66. W. Virginia | 64% | 60% (89) | 68% (49) |
| 67. Iowa St. | 63% | 76% (28) | 51% (95) |
| 68. Memphis | 63% | 67% (60) | 59% (74) |
| 69. Tennessee | 63% | 57% (96) | 69% (44) |
| 70. BYU | 63% | 62% (83) | 65% (61) |
| 71. Illinois | 63% | 64% (71) | 62% (70) |
| 72. J'ville St. | 63% | 62% (81) | 64% (62) |
| 73. Kentucky | 63% | 71% (48) | 55% (86) |
| 74. Akron | 63% | 78% (21) | 48% (114) |
| 75. EMU | 63% | 47% (114) | 79% (11) |
| 76. Kansas St. | 63% | 73% (36) | 52% (94) |
| 77. Oklahoma | 62% | 62% (79) | 63% (67) |
| 78. Wash. St. | 62% | 73% (40) | 50% (99) |
| 79. Marshall | 61% | 65% (64) | 58% (77) |
| 80. Georgia | 61% | 52% (109) | 70% (42) |
| 81. So. Miss | 60% | 68% (58) | 53% (90) |
| 82. Houston | 60% | 77% (24) | 43% (119) |
| 83. Troy | 60% | 64% (69) | 55% (84) |
| 84. Fresno St. | 59% | 48% (112) | 71% (37) |
| 85. BGSU | 59% | 63% (74) | 54% (87) |
| 86. Air Force | 59% | 47% (113) | 70% (41) |
| 87. Minnesota | 58% | 59% (91) | 57% (78) |
| 88. ODU | 57% | 69% (54) | 46% (116) |
| 89. Oklahoma St. | 57% | 65% (66) | 50% (101) |
| 90. Arizona | 57% | 72% (43) | 42% (121) |
| 91. Miss. St. | 57% | 71% (51) | 43% (118) |
| 92. Ball St. | 57% | 58% (94) | 56% (82) |
| 93. Colorado | 57% | 57% (98) | 57% (79) |
| 94. Iowa | 57% | 64% (72) | 49% (102) |
| 95. USF | 56% | 46% (116) | 67% (50) |
| 96. Northwestern | 56% | 46% (115) | 66% (52) |
| 97. SDSU | 56% | 71% (46) | 40% (123) |
| 98. NC St. | 56% | 62% (77) | 49% (104) |
| 99. Louisville | 56% | 61% (85) | 50% (100) |
| 100. Baylor | 55% | 60% (88) | 51% (97) |
| 101. Arkansas St. | 55% | 49% (111) | 62% (71) |
| 102. S. Carolina | 55% | 63% (76) | 48% (113) |
| 103. Utah St. | 55% | 44% (119) | 66% (56) |
| 104. Liberty | 55% | 63% (75) | 47% (115) |
| 105. WKU | 55% | 68% (56) | 41% (122) |
| 106. Arkansas | 54% | 58% (93) | 51% (96) |
| 107. Florida | 54% | 55% (103) | 53% (91) |
| 108. Nevada | 53% | 53% (105) | 54% (89) |
| 109. Arizona St. | 53% | 61% (86) | 45% (117) |
| 110. Buffalo | 53% | 57% (95) | 49% (108) |
| 111. SJSU | 53% | 57% (99) | 48% (109) |
| 112. Wake Forest | 52% | 46% (117) | 59% (75) |
| 113. UL-Monroe | 52% | 39% (124) | 66% (55) |
| 114. Ohio | 52% | 78% (19) | 26% (133) |
| 115. UTSA | 52% | 56% (100) | 48% (110) |
| 116. Virginia | 52% | 40% (123) | 64% (63) |
| 117. SMU | 52% | 56% (101) | 48% (112) |
| 118. TCU | 52% | 33% (130) | 71% (40) |
| 119. Pittsburgh | 51% | 52% (106) | 49% (106) |
| 120. Charlotte | 50% | 52% (108) | 48% (111) |
| 121. WMU | 49% | 67% (61) | 31% (129) |
| 122. Hawaii | 47% | 45% (118) | 49% (105) |
| 123. Ga. Southern | 47% | 37% (125) | 56% (81) |
| 124. Cincinnati | 46% | 42% (121) | 49% (107) |
| 125. Alabama | 40% | 43% (120) | 38% (127) |
| 126. Tulsa | 40% | 41% (122) | 38% (126) |
| 127. UAB | 39% | 36% (128) | 42% (120) |
| 128. Texas St. | 38% | 37% (126) | 40% (124) |
| 129. Stanford | 35% | 34% (129) | 36% (128) |
| 130. ECU | 34% | 30% (132) | 39% (125) |
| 131. App. St. | 33% | 36% (127) | 30% (131) |
| 132. Georgia St. | 31% | 32% (131) | 30% (132) |
| 133. Kent St. | 25% | 19% (133) | 31% (130) |
Here's the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:
Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 24% of the overall number
Percent of returning QB passing yards: 23%
Percent of returning OL snaps: 47%
Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%
Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 29% for the quarterback, 6% for the running back and each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends and 9% for each offensive lineman. With each year of data, offensive line snaps become a heavier piece of the equation, which I find interesting.
It's a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats (tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, passes defensed). Here's the approximate layout:
Percent of returning tackles: 70%
Percent of returning passes defensed: 14%
Percent of returning tackles for loss: 12%
Percent of returning sacks: 4%
Perhaps surprisingly, turnover in the back of the defense causes far more of a shift in a team's SP+ rating from year to year than turnover up front. By position, defensive backs make up about 46% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 40% and the defensive line is at 14%.
(Transfers are included as well based on some formula of previous production/recruiting rankings)
