Well another week another night game against another team that looks vulnerable on paper and even more vulnerable when I watch them.
I thought the Bucks were going to expose Whisky and eliminate the only quality win from TTUN’s resume last week. The OSU staff got exposed instead, and then JT Barret stepped out of the phone booth (literally) put on a cape on and rescued a victory from the jaws of defeat.
We fare better this week, but not as much as I’d like or Vegas thinks.
Final Score: Bucks 34 - Nits 20.. And it may not feel that comfortable. Or maybe Vegas is right, or maybe I’m just going insane trying to figure this out.
Summary
Trying to forecast this game is driving me nuts. PSU is all over the map, and the Bucks have not been sharp the last two games.
PSU looks like they are rebounding from some early season rebuilding, getting run over by TTUN and Pitt. And those two losses were UGLY enough that the fire Franklin chants were echoing in Happy Valley. Do they get exposed as being as bad as these two games?
PSU advanced stats say 20th in the country (Whisky was 25th last week going into the game). The details of the advanced stats say the D is holding on for dear life and the O is living off of big plays with no continuity moving the chains. Are the stats telling me PSU has a chance??
The Bucks last two games are setting a bad trend line, which I hope we reverse this week. The passing game is generating all the whining, but the edge blocking has been WORSE by a mile... and then there's the D.
No longer looking like the best D in OSU history, and started looking like a deer staring at the headlights of an oncoming truck for 3 of 4 quarters last week. Outside of the 3rd qtr, OT and RZ the D looked as confused as I am trying to predict THIS game.
Add in the bye, the white out and the bigger issue to me = the staff seems to be playing rope a dope waiting for November… maybe the last week in November.
Vegas thinks 20+…. Advanced Stats say more like 13…. Watching the first half against Whisky says overtime or worse is possible. I’m sticking pretty close to the advanced stats and hoping for the best.
When the Bucks Have the Ball
The eye test, the 2 DEEP and the stats say Buckeye scoring fest. PSU can’t stop the run, and the Buckeye run game is hard to stop…. but ….We’ve all seen this movie before.
PSU has two weeks to get ready. They make a radical discovery that if they load up the box in an odd front, stack the edges, run blitz on most downs, spy JT and soften up the secondary they might be able reanimate life (IT JUST MIGHT WORK**) and have a chance to win the game.
This diabolical plan all hinges on the Buckeyes coming out hellbent on deploying a gameplan out of NFL Films 1960's highlight archive... establishing their base run game and then throwing deep over pulled in safeties.
This won’t work b/c the Nits are loaded for “BEAR” to stop the run, and the safeties aren’t pulled in. We’ve only seen this most of the past two weeks, and 10 of 13 games last season… but hey we might be surprised by it AGAIN. “Wait they’re in and odd front? Goddammit! Why can’t our receivers get separation? Oh shoot let’s just let JT run it... get a W and go home”
We will do better than last week, if only b/c PSU D is a cardboard cutout of Whisky. If we actually came out with a plan to beat this scheme against this talent… we get to 30 by the half.
Expect the run game to mix Weber and Samuel more evenly this week A) to protect Curtis and B) PSU D is vulnerable inside and Mike missed some touches last week.
The passing game hinges on whether JT is on or off and how much the gameplan helps or hurts. No way to predict either with confidence… so I won’t
When the Bucks are on D
I don’t think Luke and Greg like getting pants'ed, nor do I think the players like staring at headlights, so they will be ready to go.
The problem is that PSU has just enough talent, and a mobile Q who reminds me of Brewer = manufactures 3rd down conversions out of dog poop... and moves the chains to give Barkley another couple of go's
And when a D gets frustrated on 3rd down and 15 after McFly scrambles for 60 seconds…. the WR’s are good enough to get deep and McFly has a big enough arm to hit them.
If the DL can get back to the pocket collapsing rush lane discipline they had until last week, McFly will be a McWaffle, and 20pts will only be possible with Buckeye turnovers.
Summary
I hope I don’t have to wait until THE GAME for the staff to put a serious plan together, but I think the only thing it hurts besides my eyes is the folks who bet on us to beat the spread.
** Quote in honor of the late great Gene Wilder!
I thought the Bucks were going to expose Whisky and eliminate the only quality win from TTUN’s resume last week. The OSU staff got exposed instead, and then JT Barret stepped out of the phone booth (literally) put on a cape on and rescued a victory from the jaws of defeat.
We fare better this week, but not as much as I’d like or Vegas thinks.
Final Score: Bucks 34 - Nits 20.. And it may not feel that comfortable. Or maybe Vegas is right, or maybe I’m just going insane trying to figure this out.
Summary
Trying to forecast this game is driving me nuts. PSU is all over the map, and the Bucks have not been sharp the last two games.
PSU looks like they are rebounding from some early season rebuilding, getting run over by TTUN and Pitt. And those two losses were UGLY enough that the fire Franklin chants were echoing in Happy Valley. Do they get exposed as being as bad as these two games?
PSU advanced stats say 20th in the country (Whisky was 25th last week going into the game). The details of the advanced stats say the D is holding on for dear life and the O is living off of big plays with no continuity moving the chains. Are the stats telling me PSU has a chance??
The Bucks last two games are setting a bad trend line, which I hope we reverse this week. The passing game is generating all the whining, but the edge blocking has been WORSE by a mile... and then there's the D.
No longer looking like the best D in OSU history, and started looking like a deer staring at the headlights of an oncoming truck for 3 of 4 quarters last week. Outside of the 3rd qtr, OT and RZ the D looked as confused as I am trying to predict THIS game.
Add in the bye, the white out and the bigger issue to me = the staff seems to be playing rope a dope waiting for November… maybe the last week in November.
Vegas thinks 20+…. Advanced Stats say more like 13…. Watching the first half against Whisky says overtime or worse is possible. I’m sticking pretty close to the advanced stats and hoping for the best.
When the Bucks Have the Ball
The eye test, the 2 DEEP and the stats say Buckeye scoring fest. PSU can’t stop the run, and the Buckeye run game is hard to stop…. but ….We’ve all seen this movie before.
PSU has two weeks to get ready. They make a radical discovery that if they load up the box in an odd front, stack the edges, run blitz on most downs, spy JT and soften up the secondary they might be able reanimate life (IT JUST MIGHT WORK**) and have a chance to win the game.
This diabolical plan all hinges on the Buckeyes coming out hellbent on deploying a gameplan out of NFL Films 1960's highlight archive... establishing their base run game and then throwing deep over pulled in safeties.
This won’t work b/c the Nits are loaded for “BEAR” to stop the run, and the safeties aren’t pulled in. We’ve only seen this most of the past two weeks, and 10 of 13 games last season… but hey we might be surprised by it AGAIN. “Wait they’re in and odd front? Goddammit! Why can’t our receivers get separation? Oh shoot let’s just let JT run it... get a W and go home”
We will do better than last week, if only b/c PSU D is a cardboard cutout of Whisky. If we actually came out with a plan to beat this scheme against this talent… we get to 30 by the half.
Expect the run game to mix Weber and Samuel more evenly this week A) to protect Curtis and B) PSU D is vulnerable inside and Mike missed some touches last week.
The passing game hinges on whether JT is on or off and how much the gameplan helps or hurts. No way to predict either with confidence… so I won’t
When the Bucks are on D
I don’t think Luke and Greg like getting pants'ed, nor do I think the players like staring at headlights, so they will be ready to go.
The problem is that PSU has just enough talent, and a mobile Q who reminds me of Brewer = manufactures 3rd down conversions out of dog poop... and moves the chains to give Barkley another couple of go's
And when a D gets frustrated on 3rd down and 15 after McFly scrambles for 60 seconds…. the WR’s are good enough to get deep and McFly has a big enough arm to hit them.
If the DL can get back to the pocket collapsing rush lane discipline they had until last week, McFly will be a McWaffle, and 20pts will only be possible with Buckeye turnovers.
Summary
I hope I don’t have to wait until THE GAME for the staff to put a serious plan together, but I think the only thing it hurts besides my eyes is the folks who bet on us to beat the spread.
** Quote in honor of the late great Gene Wilder!
