Ranking returning production for every FBS team: Who should improve, regress in 2025
What teams have the most (and least) coming back, and what will it all mean next season?
Bill C at ESPN has his first numbers out today. He'll update a few times as rosters continue to take shape, but these currently reflect some projection on the impact of incoming transfer.
Ohio State is No. 101, which isn't surprising, but it's a bit of a shift from being No. 56 last year and top 50 in both 2022 and 2023. Buckeyes were No. 124 heading into the 2021 season, and have been in the 100s plenty of times in the past -- cost of doing business when you send so many guys to the draft. OSU is No. 92 on offense (47 %back) and No. 103 on defense (45% back).
Six of OSU's 2025 opponents are top 50 in returning production: Illinois, which is third overall and one of only three teams that's top 10 in both offense and defense. Not bad for a team that won 10 games last year. Not putting OSU on upset alert, but Illinois has a friendly schedule besides OSU and could be a CFP team. Rutgers is No. 7, Wisconsin is No. 25, Michigan is No. 29, Penn State is No. 33 and Minnesota is No. 40.
Penn State is 14th on offense with 72% of its production back, but only 73rd on defense. Michigan is 28th on defense with 64% of its production back despite losing Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josiah Stewart and Will Johnson.
Two CFP teams from 2024 are No. 1 and No. 2 in returning production, Clemson and Arizona State, respectively. Both are top 10 on each side of the ball. Clemson is No. 1 on offense. I think Clemson gets back into that national title conversation this year.
Penn State is the only one of the current top five national title betting favorites that ranks inside the top 100 in returning production. Ohio State (+500) is No. 101, Texas (+550) is No. 103, Georgia (+600) is No. 105), Oregon (+750) is No. 109) and Penn State (+800) is No. 33).
Couple other notables:
Alabama is No. 35
Notre Dame is No. 62 (No. 23 on defense)
Tennessee is No. 58 (No. 22 on defense)
LSU is No. 38
Texas Tech, this offseason's transfer portal darling, is No. 4 (No. 1 on defense)
