It’s a week away from Game #1 and I was thinking about my prediction post and realized that a lot of the background on O and D is gonna be the same for the first couple of games, so I’d do that now and then really focus on the specifics for each opponent in Game 1 and 2
Early Story Line:
We have new coaches at OC and QB + LB (the CO-DC) from 2017, and while I don’t expect RADICAL overhaul there will be some obvious changes and things to look for. I’ll get to this with each unit below.
The incoming recruits look outstanding, and while I’m one of the most conservative prognosticators for freshman production it looks like Dobbins and Sheffield (who really is a sophomore) will play and play meaningful minutes. Some others might sniff some time, but I don’t think they will play a significant role in the first 2-3 games.
I expect the usual special teams play and some early minutes for a few kids but JK and Sheffield will be on the clock, anyone else would really shock me at this point. I DO think there are a number of RS-SO through SRs who have been in the shadows who might step up...Erick Smith and Davon Hamilton come to mind.
This team sports about as many 4th/5th year seniors as a Tress or Dantonio team.
We are really blessed than JTB, Jamarco, Tyquan and Billy all came back… You can’t teach experience/leadership. These kids all played on a team that won a natty and then did a belly flop in the CFP…. you usually can’t keep starters in the program this long with the way Urban recruits so when it happens and you get top end talent that has been to the show twice.... the staff has to seize the day.
When you couple JT level team leadership with Urban recruiting it’s hard not to have sky high expectations.
When THE BUCKS Have the Ball
I know (99.99999% certain)
The offense will go fast, will more effectively mix run and pass on all 3 downs than they have through Urbans entire OSU tenure.
I expect (95+% Certain)
The offensive identity will be based on ball DISTRIBUTION with an emphasis on success rate/consistency on 1st and 2nd down (get 4 yards on down 1, and half of needed distance on down #2). both passing and running to multiple runner/targets.
When the O stalled teams took away early down runs and we had no response. 2017 will feature pass to run plays and close to 60/40 mix run/pass with 50% success with both.
As drives and game rhythm unfold the distribution and tempo will set up big plays off of constraints as the opposing D wear down physically and mentally.. 2016 O stats showed good success rate overall, but not from game to game with huge dips in multiple games. I expect 2017 will be consistent overall and from game to game. The lack of distribution in 2015 and 16 were a big factor in limiting explosive plays as teams could dial in on one/two players and what play was coming down to down.
Note I expect some of the big plays to be ON THE GROUND…...as well as in the air.
I also expect 80 offensive plays per game…. So the ball will be distributed liberally, versus feeding to one of the backs/receivers who had the greatest big play potential and running the QB when things bog down. Lots of touches will allow multiple play makers to emerge… much like Urban’s best Gator teams, which were almost impossible to defend.
Weber may be the most unheralded 1000 yard back in OSU history. This kid was awesome last season, showed a ton of upside at hit 1K in the process… Expect BIG BIG things. I can see 1500 total yards in his future easily… and maybe more… note he netted 1200 last year so this isn’t a stretch… as Wilson likes to throw to his backs.
JTB has taken so much shit for an offensive scheme and playcalling that resembled a young child using a magic 8 ball… If I were JTB I’d give a the two finger Marcus Hall salute every time I threw a TD pass…. But he’s got more class. Note JTB netted 3500 + yards of total offense last season (2500/1000)… I can see him sniffing 4000, but getting there with 3500/500 kind of numbers)
The OL deservedly took a ton of crap, but also suffered at the hands of the magic 8 ball offensive coaching clown show… and they will be a wrecking ball all season long. I expect the pass pro to be the best as a unit in Urbans OSU tenure to date. Multiple factors here and they all point UP.
I Feel Real Good (but can’t put a finger on confidence level)
That JK might be another MoC or Robert Smith and literally hit the ground running as a true frosh, but I’m closer to expecting Carlos or Zeke like in their first crack at significant PT = flash but have issues with patience getting into the hole…. and then out of it and to the second level with balance to beat the first back 7 defender and GOOO ALLLL THEE WAY. BTW I think Mike was a victim of second level jitters last season and will hit some big runs.
Johnnie Dixon can become the second coming of Santonio Holmes… but lining up as a legit Z he could give a new name to “THE Z FACTOR”. Urb has wanted to hit deep balls off of the boundary since he got here.
KJ and Paris emerge as a 1-2 punch at flanker (errr H something). I actually expect this but not quite enough to pull the trigger.
I’ll be WATCHING (Feel a bit Squishy, but hopeful and I won’t factor their production into the early games)
Bin Victor or A Mack can emerge as a competent X = run the right route, win some 50/50’s and catch most of their targets. If they do this and everything above holds…the O will be epic. Think playoff run (actually better) for the entire season…. Yup that’s why I’m not 100% there yet and will be watching.
McCall can find a home…. I REALLY REALLY hope it’s at RB, but if JK is what the staff seems to think he is and he and Mike stay healthy, then Demario is going to be fighting for 5 targets from the slot… or perhaps in games we romp he sees time in the backfield…
Baugh gets healthy and emerges as what we thought/hoped when he committed. He could be a fantastic SR story….in a long line of them… and they are wonderful.
When The Bucks are on D
This season boils down to 2 things…and I expect them both.
Can the DL maintain the gap discipline from 2016, and add a dose of “controlled explosion” when they want to. Continue to stuff the run and squeeze the spread QB’s and add in more TFLs and sacks without getting gashed with broken/trap plays when the DL cut it loose.
Can the DBs continue the theme since the middle of 2014 where the underneath passing on the edge is shut down and big plays are minimized. Give the other team some room in the middle seam and make them pay with picks.
If these 2 things happen then the LB’s should be free to use their athleticism… and opposing O’s will be shut down with the exception of the occasional big play/gash in the ground game.
What I’ll be watching for
1) How does Schiano deploy Webb and Ward…. And then how does he cover the slot and use the SS and WoLB
2016 saw Hooker (SS) in center field and Webb (FS) on the slot with Worley in a zone look focused on clamping down the bubble screens and outside zone... and Conley holding down a very vulnerable fort on the boundary with Baker.
I like Webb in centerfield in the Cover 1 look… and I think Ward and Baker can handle the boundary. But how he deploys Booker and Smith/Fuller or Arnette in a nickel look will be VERY interesting... or does he go to the Cover 4 more through the game.. and put more responsibility on Booker and Worley in pass coverage
2) How LJ manages the DL rotation, shifts gears and applies the throttle.
There is SOOO much talent… and it’d be easy to let them free lance… that’s what Vrable did with high end talent and less depth. LJ kept everyone pinned down last year and that works but minimizes havoc rate.
Early Story Line:
We have new coaches at OC and QB + LB (the CO-DC) from 2017, and while I don’t expect RADICAL overhaul there will be some obvious changes and things to look for. I’ll get to this with each unit below.
The incoming recruits look outstanding, and while I’m one of the most conservative prognosticators for freshman production it looks like Dobbins and Sheffield (who really is a sophomore) will play and play meaningful minutes. Some others might sniff some time, but I don’t think they will play a significant role in the first 2-3 games.
I expect the usual special teams play and some early minutes for a few kids but JK and Sheffield will be on the clock, anyone else would really shock me at this point. I DO think there are a number of RS-SO through SRs who have been in the shadows who might step up...Erick Smith and Davon Hamilton come to mind.
This team sports about as many 4th/5th year seniors as a Tress or Dantonio team.
We are really blessed than JTB, Jamarco, Tyquan and Billy all came back… You can’t teach experience/leadership. These kids all played on a team that won a natty and then did a belly flop in the CFP…. you usually can’t keep starters in the program this long with the way Urban recruits so when it happens and you get top end talent that has been to the show twice.... the staff has to seize the day.
When you couple JT level team leadership with Urban recruiting it’s hard not to have sky high expectations.
When THE BUCKS Have the Ball
I know (99.99999% certain)
The offense will go fast, will more effectively mix run and pass on all 3 downs than they have through Urbans entire OSU tenure.
I expect (95+% Certain)
The offensive identity will be based on ball DISTRIBUTION with an emphasis on success rate/consistency on 1st and 2nd down (get 4 yards on down 1, and half of needed distance on down #2). both passing and running to multiple runner/targets.
When the O stalled teams took away early down runs and we had no response. 2017 will feature pass to run plays and close to 60/40 mix run/pass with 50% success with both.
As drives and game rhythm unfold the distribution and tempo will set up big plays off of constraints as the opposing D wear down physically and mentally.. 2016 O stats showed good success rate overall, but not from game to game with huge dips in multiple games. I expect 2017 will be consistent overall and from game to game. The lack of distribution in 2015 and 16 were a big factor in limiting explosive plays as teams could dial in on one/two players and what play was coming down to down.
Note I expect some of the big plays to be ON THE GROUND…...as well as in the air.
I also expect 80 offensive plays per game…. So the ball will be distributed liberally, versus feeding to one of the backs/receivers who had the greatest big play potential and running the QB when things bog down. Lots of touches will allow multiple play makers to emerge… much like Urban’s best Gator teams, which were almost impossible to defend.
Weber may be the most unheralded 1000 yard back in OSU history. This kid was awesome last season, showed a ton of upside at hit 1K in the process… Expect BIG BIG things. I can see 1500 total yards in his future easily… and maybe more… note he netted 1200 last year so this isn’t a stretch… as Wilson likes to throw to his backs.
JTB has taken so much shit for an offensive scheme and playcalling that resembled a young child using a magic 8 ball… If I were JTB I’d give a the two finger Marcus Hall salute every time I threw a TD pass…. But he’s got more class. Note JTB netted 3500 + yards of total offense last season (2500/1000)… I can see him sniffing 4000, but getting there with 3500/500 kind of numbers)
The OL deservedly took a ton of crap, but also suffered at the hands of the magic 8 ball offensive coaching clown show… and they will be a wrecking ball all season long. I expect the pass pro to be the best as a unit in Urbans OSU tenure to date. Multiple factors here and they all point UP.
I Feel Real Good (but can’t put a finger on confidence level)
That JK might be another MoC or Robert Smith and literally hit the ground running as a true frosh, but I’m closer to expecting Carlos or Zeke like in their first crack at significant PT = flash but have issues with patience getting into the hole…. and then out of it and to the second level with balance to beat the first back 7 defender and GOOO ALLLL THEE WAY. BTW I think Mike was a victim of second level jitters last season and will hit some big runs.
Johnnie Dixon can become the second coming of Santonio Holmes… but lining up as a legit Z he could give a new name to “THE Z FACTOR”. Urb has wanted to hit deep balls off of the boundary since he got here.
KJ and Paris emerge as a 1-2 punch at flanker (errr H something). I actually expect this but not quite enough to pull the trigger.
I’ll be WATCHING (Feel a bit Squishy, but hopeful and I won’t factor their production into the early games)
Bin Victor or A Mack can emerge as a competent X = run the right route, win some 50/50’s and catch most of their targets. If they do this and everything above holds…the O will be epic. Think playoff run (actually better) for the entire season…. Yup that’s why I’m not 100% there yet and will be watching.
McCall can find a home…. I REALLY REALLY hope it’s at RB, but if JK is what the staff seems to think he is and he and Mike stay healthy, then Demario is going to be fighting for 5 targets from the slot… or perhaps in games we romp he sees time in the backfield…
Baugh gets healthy and emerges as what we thought/hoped when he committed. He could be a fantastic SR story….in a long line of them… and they are wonderful.
When The Bucks are on D
This season boils down to 2 things…and I expect them both.
Can the DL maintain the gap discipline from 2016, and add a dose of “controlled explosion” when they want to. Continue to stuff the run and squeeze the spread QB’s and add in more TFLs and sacks without getting gashed with broken/trap plays when the DL cut it loose.
Can the DBs continue the theme since the middle of 2014 where the underneath passing on the edge is shut down and big plays are minimized. Give the other team some room in the middle seam and make them pay with picks.
If these 2 things happen then the LB’s should be free to use their athleticism… and opposing O’s will be shut down with the exception of the occasional big play/gash in the ground game.
What I’ll be watching for
1) How does Schiano deploy Webb and Ward…. And then how does he cover the slot and use the SS and WoLB
2016 saw Hooker (SS) in center field and Webb (FS) on the slot with Worley in a zone look focused on clamping down the bubble screens and outside zone... and Conley holding down a very vulnerable fort on the boundary with Baker.
I like Webb in centerfield in the Cover 1 look… and I think Ward and Baker can handle the boundary. But how he deploys Booker and Smith/Fuller or Arnette in a nickel look will be VERY interesting... or does he go to the Cover 4 more through the game.. and put more responsibility on Booker and Worley in pass coverage
2) How LJ manages the DL rotation, shifts gears and applies the throttle.
There is SOOO much talent… and it’d be easy to let them free lance… that’s what Vrable did with high end talent and less depth. LJ kept everyone pinned down last year and that works but minimizes havoc rate.
