Opinions • Opinion
Here’s what should worry Republicans
By Jennifer Rubin
January 29 at 11:00 AM PT
President Trump speaks in the White House Rose Garden. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci) (Evan Vucci/AP)
Republicans likely won’t have Robert S. Mueller III to rescue them from their approaching train wreck. And they should be honest with themselves (if not the rest of us): They are heading for a political derailment if things go on as they have been.
What’s the jam? Republicans have a presidential incumbent whose most recent polls put him in the mid-30s. Even worse, the intensity of the opposition to him is off the charts. The Post-ABC poll tells us:
A 56 percent majority of all Americans say they would “definitely not vote for him” should Trump become the Republican nominee, while 14 percent say they would consider voting for him and 28 percent would definitely vote for him. Majorities of independents (59 percent), women (64 percent) and suburbanites (56 percent) rule out supporting Trump for a second term.
Across six polls during President Barack Obama’s first term, between 41 percent and 46 percent said they would “definitely not vote for him.” That includes an October 2011 poll in which Obama’s approval rating sank to 42 percent, with disapproval at 54 percent. Obama won reelection in 2012 with 51 percent of the popular vote compared with Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s 47 percent.
The depth and breadth of animosity are unlikely to dissipate even in the best of economic times. Should the economy stall out, as many economists expect will happen by 2020, even those Republicans in the “But taxes . . .” or “But Gorsuch . . ." camp may see the handwriting on the wall.
Moreover, it’s not like Republicans are all that jazzed about him. Sure, when a pollster asks Republicans if they approve of Trump’s performance, a strong majority say they do, but that doesn’t mean they won’t recognize his unelectability in a year. To the contrary, in the Post-ABC poll already 32 percent of Republicans/Lean Republicans would like the party to nominate someone else next year.
But Republicans' prospects for an alternate nominee are sparse. Former senator Jeff Flake of Arizona says he’s not running. The best shot for a Trump alternative at this stages is Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a representative of the shrinking sane wing of the GOP. (He, by the way, is smart to consider a run: If the bottom drops out of Trump’s support, he might be the only available lifeboat.)
And that’s where we come back to Mueller. Regardless of the inappropriate comments of acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker (whose meandering, nervous remarks at a Monday news conference suggested Mueller was nearing the end of his investigation), we have no idea how far along Mueller really is. We don’t know if Whitaker (drenched in sweat and looking entirely uncomfortable in his role) was telling the truth, which part of the investigation (or all of it) might be wrapping up, and what “close to being completed” really means.
Whenever the report does come out, Mueller is unlikely to indict a sitting president given current Justice Department rules. Unless Mueller has Trump dead to rights on collusion (or the Southern District of New York has him on conspiracy to commit fraud and/or violate campaign finance laws), a jaw-dropping obstruction case would be needed for Republican senators to abandon Trump. They may do so (in part because Trump is a weight around the necks of Senate incumbents), but no one — especially not GOP primary voters — should count on a knockout blow that would absolve them of the choice in the primary between a wounded Trump and some as-yet-unknown challenger.
Flash forward to the primaries. On one side, in a wide open race with no obvious front-runner, 20 Democrats will be electrifying Democrats, boosting turnout and creating a tough, moving target for the Republican opposition machine. (Which of the 20 should it focus on? Do Republican smears even matter?) On the other side, in all likelihood you have a wounded president, growing unease among the base, a less-than-ideal economic record and — if Republicans are lucky — a decent challenger or two who will pound away at Trump’s faults.
This sure doesn’t look like 1984 or 1996 or even 2004 when an incumbent president had a clear advantage. No, 2020 may look a lot like 1976 — or, worse for the GOP, 1976 with Nixon still in the White House. As I said, Republicans should be very, very nervous.
President Trump often says the U.S. has “no choice” than to do what he proposes. That is, until he capitulates. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)
Read more:
Michael Gerson: Trump is a fraud
Helaine Olen: Donald Trump’s grotesque fraud
The Post’s View: No one can possibly believe Trump’s tale of self-made success now
Kathleen Parker: The Trump team’s ‘let them eat cake’ moment
Karen Tumulty: This is the greatest blunder of Trump’s presidency
Jennifer Rubin writes reported opinion for The Washington Post.
Democracy Dies in Darkness
Here’s what should worry Republicans
By Jennifer Rubin
January 29 at 11:00 AM PT
President Trump speaks in the White House Rose Garden. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci) (Evan Vucci/AP)
Republicans likely won’t have Robert S. Mueller III to rescue them from their approaching train wreck. And they should be honest with themselves (if not the rest of us): They are heading for a political derailment if things go on as they have been.
What’s the jam? Republicans have a presidential incumbent whose most recent polls put him in the mid-30s. Even worse, the intensity of the opposition to him is off the charts. The Post-ABC poll tells us:
A 56 percent majority of all Americans say they would “definitely not vote for him” should Trump become the Republican nominee, while 14 percent say they would consider voting for him and 28 percent would definitely vote for him. Majorities of independents (59 percent), women (64 percent) and suburbanites (56 percent) rule out supporting Trump for a second term.
Across six polls during President Barack Obama’s first term, between 41 percent and 46 percent said they would “definitely not vote for him.” That includes an October 2011 poll in which Obama’s approval rating sank to 42 percent, with disapproval at 54 percent. Obama won reelection in 2012 with 51 percent of the popular vote compared with Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s 47 percent.
The depth and breadth of animosity are unlikely to dissipate even in the best of economic times. Should the economy stall out, as many economists expect will happen by 2020, even those Republicans in the “But taxes . . .” or “But Gorsuch . . ." camp may see the handwriting on the wall.
Moreover, it’s not like Republicans are all that jazzed about him. Sure, when a pollster asks Republicans if they approve of Trump’s performance, a strong majority say they do, but that doesn’t mean they won’t recognize his unelectability in a year. To the contrary, in the Post-ABC poll already 32 percent of Republicans/Lean Republicans would like the party to nominate someone else next year.
But Republicans' prospects for an alternate nominee are sparse. Former senator Jeff Flake of Arizona says he’s not running. The best shot for a Trump alternative at this stages is Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a representative of the shrinking sane wing of the GOP. (He, by the way, is smart to consider a run: If the bottom drops out of Trump’s support, he might be the only available lifeboat.)
And that’s where we come back to Mueller. Regardless of the inappropriate comments of acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker (whose meandering, nervous remarks at a Monday news conference suggested Mueller was nearing the end of his investigation), we have no idea how far along Mueller really is. We don’t know if Whitaker (drenched in sweat and looking entirely uncomfortable in his role) was telling the truth, which part of the investigation (or all of it) might be wrapping up, and what “close to being completed” really means.
Whenever the report does come out, Mueller is unlikely to indict a sitting president given current Justice Department rules. Unless Mueller has Trump dead to rights on collusion (or the Southern District of New York has him on conspiracy to commit fraud and/or violate campaign finance laws), a jaw-dropping obstruction case would be needed for Republican senators to abandon Trump. They may do so (in part because Trump is a weight around the necks of Senate incumbents), but no one — especially not GOP primary voters — should count on a knockout blow that would absolve them of the choice in the primary between a wounded Trump and some as-yet-unknown challenger.
Flash forward to the primaries. On one side, in a wide open race with no obvious front-runner, 20 Democrats will be electrifying Democrats, boosting turnout and creating a tough, moving target for the Republican opposition machine. (Which of the 20 should it focus on? Do Republican smears even matter?) On the other side, in all likelihood you have a wounded president, growing unease among the base, a less-than-ideal economic record and — if Republicans are lucky — a decent challenger or two who will pound away at Trump’s faults.
This sure doesn’t look like 1984 or 1996 or even 2004 when an incumbent president had a clear advantage. No, 2020 may look a lot like 1976 — or, worse for the GOP, 1976 with Nixon still in the White House. As I said, Republicans should be very, very nervous.
President Trump often says the U.S. has “no choice” than to do what he proposes. That is, until he capitulates. (JM Rieger/The Washington Post)
Read more:
Michael Gerson: Trump is a fraud
Helaine Olen: Donald Trump’s grotesque fraud
The Post’s View: No one can possibly believe Trump’s tale of self-made success now
Kathleen Parker: The Trump team’s ‘let them eat cake’ moment
Karen Tumulty: This is the greatest blunder of Trump’s presidency
Jennifer Rubin writes reported opinion for The Washington Post.
Democracy Dies in Darkness
