Iran is winning the strategic struggle for influence in the Middle East against its rival, Saudi Arabia, according to a study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Iran's regional rivals have spent billions of dollars on Western weaponry, much of it from the UK.
Yet for a fraction of that cost, sanctions-bound Iran has been able to successfully embed itself across the region into a position of strategic advantage.
It has a major influence - verging on a controlling influence in some cases - over the affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
'Tipping the balance'
The fact that Iran has stealthily built up a network of non-state alliances right across the Middle East, often referred to as "proxy militias", is nothing new.
Starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic has been seeking to export its revolutionary ideology and expand its influence beyond its borders ever since the return of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to Tehran in 1979.
But the 217-page report by the IISS, entitled "Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East", provides unprecedented detail on the extent and reach of Iran's operations in the region.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran," says the report, "has tipped the balance of effective force in the Middle East in its favour." It has achieved this, argue its authors, "by countering superior conventional forces with influence operations and use of third-party forces".
The key ingredient here has been the Quds Force, the external operations wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC).
Both the Quds Force and its leader, Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani, answer directly to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, bypassing Iran's conventional military structures to become effectively an independent entity.
Since the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, the Quds Force has intensified its operations across the Middle East, providing training, funding and weapons to non-state actors allied to Tehran.
It has also developed unconventional forms of asymmetric warfare - such as swarm tactics, drone and cyber-attacks - that have allowed Iran to offset its enemies' superiority in conventional weapons.
The US-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime completely changed the shape of the Middle East and provided Iran with ample opportunity to take advantage.
Prior to that event, the Gulf Arab states saw Sunni Arab-ruled Iraq as something of a bulwark against any Iranian expansionism.
With that bulwark gone, Iran has successfully capitalised on its religious and cultural ties inside Iraq - which has a Shia Arab majority - to become a dominant force in the country.
It has armed and trained a paramilitary force called the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), which helped defeat IS but which many Iraqis see as a form of Iranian colonisation.
Iran would very much like the US to leave the region and to replace it as the dominant military power.
The report concludes that Iran is unlikely to change course while Mr Trump remains in the White House and will "continue to seize opportunities to expand its third-party capability".
The fact that Iran now has such an extensive and geographically dispersed network of alliances gives it ample scope to conduct deniable operations at arms' length, should it choose to.
These could range from missile and drone attacks, ambushes on US military forces in Iraq, disruption of maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz, to sophisticated cyber-attacks that target Israel or the Gulf Arab states.
The bottom line is this: after 40 years of steadily recruiting, funding and arming its network of alliances, Iran is now in a far stronger position than it would appear.
Yes, the sanctions are biting and its population is suffering the effects. Economically, Iran is in a dreadful place. But the IRGC's Quds Force has built up a system of alliances that allows it to bring about maximum effect for minimum cost.
Strategically, through the network described in the IISS report, Iran has become a force to be reckoned with.
Well, I don't know about the rest of you, but I will sure sleep better at night knowing that President Trump is in control of our foreign policy. G'night, y'all!
Iran's regional rivals have spent billions of dollars on Western weaponry, much of it from the UK.
Yet for a fraction of that cost, sanctions-bound Iran has been able to successfully embed itself across the region into a position of strategic advantage.
It has a major influence - verging on a controlling influence in some cases - over the affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
'Tipping the balance'
The fact that Iran has stealthily built up a network of non-state alliances right across the Middle East, often referred to as "proxy militias", is nothing new.
Starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic has been seeking to export its revolutionary ideology and expand its influence beyond its borders ever since the return of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to Tehran in 1979.
But the 217-page report by the IISS, entitled "Iran's Networks of Influence in the Middle East", provides unprecedented detail on the extent and reach of Iran's operations in the region.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran," says the report, "has tipped the balance of effective force in the Middle East in its favour." It has achieved this, argue its authors, "by countering superior conventional forces with influence operations and use of third-party forces".
The key ingredient here has been the Quds Force, the external operations wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC).
Both the Quds Force and its leader, Maj Gen Qasem Soleimani, answer directly to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, bypassing Iran's conventional military structures to become effectively an independent entity.
Since the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003, the Quds Force has intensified its operations across the Middle East, providing training, funding and weapons to non-state actors allied to Tehran.
It has also developed unconventional forms of asymmetric warfare - such as swarm tactics, drone and cyber-attacks - that have allowed Iran to offset its enemies' superiority in conventional weapons.
The US-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime completely changed the shape of the Middle East and provided Iran with ample opportunity to take advantage.
Prior to that event, the Gulf Arab states saw Sunni Arab-ruled Iraq as something of a bulwark against any Iranian expansionism.
With that bulwark gone, Iran has successfully capitalised on its religious and cultural ties inside Iraq - which has a Shia Arab majority - to become a dominant force in the country.
It has armed and trained a paramilitary force called the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), which helped defeat IS but which many Iraqis see as a form of Iranian colonisation.
Iran would very much like the US to leave the region and to replace it as the dominant military power.
The report concludes that Iran is unlikely to change course while Mr Trump remains in the White House and will "continue to seize opportunities to expand its third-party capability".
The fact that Iran now has such an extensive and geographically dispersed network of alliances gives it ample scope to conduct deniable operations at arms' length, should it choose to.
These could range from missile and drone attacks, ambushes on US military forces in Iraq, disruption of maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz, to sophisticated cyber-attacks that target Israel or the Gulf Arab states.
The bottom line is this: after 40 years of steadily recruiting, funding and arming its network of alliances, Iran is now in a far stronger position than it would appear.
Yes, the sanctions are biting and its population is suffering the effects. Economically, Iran is in a dreadful place. But the IRGC's Quds Force has built up a system of alliances that allows it to bring about maximum effect for minimum cost.
Strategically, through the network described in the IISS report, Iran has become a force to be reckoned with.
Well, I don't know about the rest of you, but I will sure sleep better at night knowing that President Trump is in control of our foreign policy. G'night, y'all!
