ND has had rush defense issues all year long, I like to use https://collegefootballnerds.com/Stats because it puts the data in clear form so thats where all the data Ill be using is from
ND has faced 5 top 15 Rush offenses per carry using the relative performance metric.
#3 Louisville +39%
#6 USC +36%
#11 Navy +30%
#12 PSU +29%
#13 Army +27%
Here are the stats for the RBs in those games (for the service academies Ill include all rushes as they run a different offense)
Louisville : Their top 3 RBs had 123 yards on 27 carries for 4.6 yards a rush
USC: 187 yards on 22 carries to USC RBs (8.5 a carry with a long of only 23!)
Navy: 224 yards on 42 caries 5.3 yards per rush
PSU: 166 yards on 34 carries to PSU RBs (4.95 yards a carry)
Army: 209 yards on 56 carries for 3.7 yards per rush
OSU for context is the #8 Ranked Rush offense at +34%
Riley Mills (their best Defensive Lineman) played in all of these games except for PSU, and with the exceptions of Louisville and USC, none of these teams had a competent day passing the ball.
ND is very vulnerable on the ground especially with Riley Mills out, I dont love this, but honestly OSU should probably be rushing to set up the pass in this one, NDs Pass defense is elite, so make them have to stack the box then throw on them.
Just for some added context
OSU is #1 rush defense vs expected in the nation
Michigan is the #3 - 31%(3 yards a carry for osu)
Indiana is # 5 -27% (4 yards)
PSU #6 -27% (4.4 yards)
Texas #8 -26% (3.5 yards)
Tennessee #11 -25% (4.7 yards)
These were the games where the offense struggled when they wanted to run 1st.
ND is down at #22 -18%
Conversely here are the pass defense ranks per pass attempt
Texas #2
ND #3
OSU #4
Indiana #6
Michigan #11
Tennessee #12
PSU #18
Oregon #36
The Texas/Michigan Gamplan from ND would probably be the worst thing they could implement as they do not have the defense to be able to stop the Buckeyes from running all over them without extra guys in the box.
This and our pass defense I think will be the keys to the game,
The other phases of the game are
OSU Pass offense #3 vs ND Pass defense #3
ND Pass offense #64 vs OSU Pass defense #4
ND Rush offense #1 vs OSU Rush Defense #1
OSU rush offense #8 vs ND Rush defense #22
2 are strength on strength, the other 2 are massive advantages in favor of OSU
ND has faced 5 top 15 Rush offenses per carry using the relative performance metric.
#3 Louisville +39%
#6 USC +36%
#11 Navy +30%
#12 PSU +29%
#13 Army +27%
Here are the stats for the RBs in those games (for the service academies Ill include all rushes as they run a different offense)
Louisville : Their top 3 RBs had 123 yards on 27 carries for 4.6 yards a rush
USC: 187 yards on 22 carries to USC RBs (8.5 a carry with a long of only 23!)
Navy: 224 yards on 42 caries 5.3 yards per rush
PSU: 166 yards on 34 carries to PSU RBs (4.95 yards a carry)
Army: 209 yards on 56 carries for 3.7 yards per rush
OSU for context is the #8 Ranked Rush offense at +34%
Riley Mills (their best Defensive Lineman) played in all of these games except for PSU, and with the exceptions of Louisville and USC, none of these teams had a competent day passing the ball.
ND is very vulnerable on the ground especially with Riley Mills out, I dont love this, but honestly OSU should probably be rushing to set up the pass in this one, NDs Pass defense is elite, so make them have to stack the box then throw on them.
Just for some added context
OSU is #1 rush defense vs expected in the nation
Michigan is the #3 - 31%(3 yards a carry for osu)
Indiana is # 5 -27% (4 yards)
PSU #6 -27% (4.4 yards)
Texas #8 -26% (3.5 yards)
Tennessee #11 -25% (4.7 yards)
These were the games where the offense struggled when they wanted to run 1st.
ND is down at #22 -18%
Conversely here are the pass defense ranks per pass attempt
Texas #2
ND #3
OSU #4
Indiana #6
Michigan #11
Tennessee #12
PSU #18
Oregon #36
The Texas/Michigan Gamplan from ND would probably be the worst thing they could implement as they do not have the defense to be able to stop the Buckeyes from running all over them without extra guys in the box.
This and our pass defense I think will be the keys to the game,
The other phases of the game are
OSU Pass offense #3 vs ND Pass defense #3
ND Pass offense #64 vs OSU Pass defense #4
ND Rush offense #1 vs OSU Rush Defense #1
OSU rush offense #8 vs ND Rush defense #22
2 are strength on strength, the other 2 are massive advantages in favor of OSU
