Calling on @buckiprof (or anyone)...
I'm pretty good at probability...but I'm not 100% on the solution to this:
Consider an aircraft that is flying through a contested airspace on its way to land back at base. The probability of encountering an HOB frag blast within proximity to the aircraft is 40%. The aircraft has THREE critical components (PILOT, FUEL TANK, and ENGINE) and THREE REDUNDANT hydraulics lines (LINE 1, LINE 2, and LINE 3). The PILOT, FUEL TANK, and ENGINE have a reliability of 100%. The hydraulic lines have a reliability of 80% each. Assume the frag blast (if it occurs) has a 20% chance of disabling any component or hydraulic line.
1. Calculate the probability for success of the aircraft returning to base without a potential HOB Frag (just consider the component reliability). S_component = ???
2. Calculate the probability for success of the aircraft returning to base with JUST the potential HOB Frag (ignore component reliability). S_frag = ???
3. Calculate the probability for success of the ENTIRE system (the aircraft returning to base). S_total = ???
If you have any clarification questions, feel free to ask me. I created this problem.
I'm pretty good at probability...but I'm not 100% on the solution to this:
Consider an aircraft that is flying through a contested airspace on its way to land back at base. The probability of encountering an HOB frag blast within proximity to the aircraft is 40%. The aircraft has THREE critical components (PILOT, FUEL TANK, and ENGINE) and THREE REDUNDANT hydraulics lines (LINE 1, LINE 2, and LINE 3). The PILOT, FUEL TANK, and ENGINE have a reliability of 100%. The hydraulic lines have a reliability of 80% each. Assume the frag blast (if it occurs) has a 20% chance of disabling any component or hydraulic line.
1. Calculate the probability for success of the aircraft returning to base without a potential HOB Frag (just consider the component reliability). S_component = ???
2. Calculate the probability for success of the aircraft returning to base with JUST the potential HOB Frag (ignore component reliability). S_frag = ???
3. Calculate the probability for success of the ENTIRE system (the aircraft returning to base). S_total = ???
If you have any clarification questions, feel free to ask me. I created this problem.
