Here are my preliminary thoughts on the game.
The New England Patriots: will, of course, be tough to beat because they have so much experience in big games and high pressure situations having been in the Super Bowl four of the last five years and Belichick and Brady have been there many times even prior to 2014. They won't have the same type of pre-game jitters the Rams are likely to have (outside of maybe Aqib Talib, Brandin Cooks, and Sam Shields). Belichick seems to be a brilliant schemer in terms of taking away what the other team does best and trying on offense to show wrinkles that the other team didn't expect. This year's offense does not have receivers that are really going to stretch the field a lot and so Belichick has done some creative things to get Edelman and Gronkowski and James White in space and make it more difficult for opponents to play press man coverage effectively. The Pats' O-line is very good at run blocking and they are the best in the league at not allowing sacks; it helps a lot that the Patriots often use two backs/one TE sets and a lot of relatively quick developing plays. I suspect that the Patriots on defense will try to blitz Jared Goff a ton in order to both make the young QB as uncomfortable as possible and to limit the amount of time Goff has in play-action. I further suspect the Patriots will be okay with an occasional chunk play in the passing game trusting that they'll get some turnovers and poor/hurried decisions from Goff to get the ball back to Tom Brady more quickly.
The LA Rams: will need to play a relatively clean game (no more than one turnover and no more than five or six penalties) because the Patriots hardly ever beat themselves. The Rams' best chance of success on offense is if they are consistent in running the ball and if they use play-action passing a lot off of their rushing attempts. I think the Rams have to make sure to stick with the run and play action passing attempts even if they are not very successful starting out the game; they *will* eventually pay dividends for the Rams--at least more than Goff mostly just dropping back and trying to decode what New England is doing with its coverages. If the Rams are able to rush for between 100-150 yards--I don't think they will--that will be a tremendous advantage in terms of taking some pressure off of Jared Goff and reducing the number of opportunities for Tom Brady to have the ball. On defense, I think Belichick is too smart given how the Giants beat them in 2007 and 2011 to leave Aaron Donald single-blocked on more than a couple plays. Will the Rams be prepared with a game plan to compensate for New England scheming to neutralize Donald? Will Ndamukong Suh have a fire lit under him knowing that this may be his last-and-only chance to win a championship and that the Pats are going to be willing to take their chances blocking him one-on-one all game long? Will the Rams be able to have any success disguising zone coverages as man or vice versa? I think that if the Rams are able to take away the short passing game to the running backs and Julian Edelman, that New England will be able to get the ball to Gronkowski on mismatches. I also think that if the Rams take away Gronkowski or the short passing game, that New England will use James White and Sony Michel to run the ball. Belichick and Brady are too skilled at having plans C & D in addition to just plan A and plan B.
I'll predict a score of New England 31, LA Rams 23. F--- Tom Brady even tho he might be the GOAT.
The New England Patriots: will, of course, be tough to beat because they have so much experience in big games and high pressure situations having been in the Super Bowl four of the last five years and Belichick and Brady have been there many times even prior to 2014. They won't have the same type of pre-game jitters the Rams are likely to have (outside of maybe Aqib Talib, Brandin Cooks, and Sam Shields). Belichick seems to be a brilliant schemer in terms of taking away what the other team does best and trying on offense to show wrinkles that the other team didn't expect. This year's offense does not have receivers that are really going to stretch the field a lot and so Belichick has done some creative things to get Edelman and Gronkowski and James White in space and make it more difficult for opponents to play press man coverage effectively. The Pats' O-line is very good at run blocking and they are the best in the league at not allowing sacks; it helps a lot that the Patriots often use two backs/one TE sets and a lot of relatively quick developing plays. I suspect that the Patriots on defense will try to blitz Jared Goff a ton in order to both make the young QB as uncomfortable as possible and to limit the amount of time Goff has in play-action. I further suspect the Patriots will be okay with an occasional chunk play in the passing game trusting that they'll get some turnovers and poor/hurried decisions from Goff to get the ball back to Tom Brady more quickly.
The LA Rams: will need to play a relatively clean game (no more than one turnover and no more than five or six penalties) because the Patriots hardly ever beat themselves. The Rams' best chance of success on offense is if they are consistent in running the ball and if they use play-action passing a lot off of their rushing attempts. I think the Rams have to make sure to stick with the run and play action passing attempts even if they are not very successful starting out the game; they *will* eventually pay dividends for the Rams--at least more than Goff mostly just dropping back and trying to decode what New England is doing with its coverages. If the Rams are able to rush for between 100-150 yards--I don't think they will--that will be a tremendous advantage in terms of taking some pressure off of Jared Goff and reducing the number of opportunities for Tom Brady to have the ball. On defense, I think Belichick is too smart given how the Giants beat them in 2007 and 2011 to leave Aaron Donald single-blocked on more than a couple plays. Will the Rams be prepared with a game plan to compensate for New England scheming to neutralize Donald? Will Ndamukong Suh have a fire lit under him knowing that this may be his last-and-only chance to win a championship and that the Pats are going to be willing to take their chances blocking him one-on-one all game long? Will the Rams be able to have any success disguising zone coverages as man or vice versa? I think that if the Rams are able to take away the short passing game to the running backs and Julian Edelman, that New England will be able to get the ball to Gronkowski on mismatches. I also think that if the Rams take away Gronkowski or the short passing game, that New England will use James White and Sony Michel to run the ball. Belichick and Brady are too skilled at having plans C & D in addition to just plan A and plan B.
I'll predict a score of New England 31, LA Rams 23. F--- Tom Brady even tho he might be the GOAT.
