and some early thoughts on the CFP
What a shit show 2020 has been. At least we had some semblance of a CFB season, and some semblance is better than none.
Based on what I saw Saturday, OSU is NOT ready for the CFP. We haven't played enough games to get things sorted out on either side of the ball, but we are CLOSE. So the open question moving forward is whether we can pull it together for what would be a season defining mid-season game in the CFP.
Avenge the loss to Clemson... and 2020 = mission accomplished. Whatever happens beyond that is icing.
The game Saturday was the worst coaching job Day has done since he's been at OSU. Period.
Thankfully, NW offense is so moribund that we were able to "escape" with a win where we rushed for nearly 400 (399) yards. Think about that ... we rushed for 399 and held the opponent to 10 points. So guess the final score??? 65-10 maybe.
In a game where we had 12 possessions and rushed for 399 we scored 22 points... yup fans that's 1.8 points per possession. In the game v Indy where we frittered away most of H2 and rushed for 300 we scored 2.8/poss and in the next closest game this season against PSU we scored 3.5.
Clearly we haven't had the time, or inclination, to develop the 3rd receiver this season and moving Wilson from the Slot to Z to replace Olave hurt us twice. Fleming is really an X or Z, but isn't ready.. Smith-Njigba was also out.. and Wilson is OK at Z but prototypical for the slot.
Most every team in the B10, and really CFB overall, aligns to stop the run and defend the pass with 1 high safety. NW, like Bama and many other teams start with two high but rotate one down to stop the run.
No rotation on Saturday my friends. On most plays NW looked like the Green Bay Packers..... under Vince Lombardi. I have no problem that Day and Wilson went into the game thinking they would try and rip the top off. I have a MAJOR problem that they didn't adjust. It reminded may of old Oakland Raider games where Al Davis (or Madden as his proxy) would spend the whole game trying to hit the deep ball and then pull out the win with desperation throws to Dave Casper and the dude the CFB award for WR excellence is given to... Fast Freddy Biletnikoff.
BTW someone who didn't play Saturday reminds me of Fast Freddy. Not having him was a bigger loss than we thought going in. Hopefully, he'll be back and more hopefully... Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have a meeting of the minds as to how they want to use the Deep Ball. and the 1960's/70's Oakland Raider scheme isn't it. Or rather not the one they used until the 4th quarter.
The OL was ROLLING. NW run D isn't that great, but they aren't swiss cheese either, and we gashed them for 399 yards including sacks. Unfortunately, in a game where we rushed for 400 we gave up 3 sacks. In this game it was a manifestation of the fundamental problem with the scheme... not the OL blocking.
Without Olave, we generally moved Wilson to the Z and spent most of the game unsuccessfully trying to hit the deep ball with little chance against the scheme NW was in and no slot receiver to punish NW for over playing the deep ball.
Fleming is good, but his is a true frosh and had 3 receptions all season (ahem 3 games with stats) coming into the game. The fascinating stat here is that he was the LEADING receiver. Wilson had 4 for 49 yards, Jameson Williamson had 0.0, So by the way did the TEs. For reference ... in the aforementioned IU game Wilson from the SLOT had 169 yards on 7 balls. Olave in that game had 101.
As a team we had 114 yards in the air... Olave has averaged 105 on the season. Think we missed him. Yes. but it didn't have to be that way. The quick underneath throws were there all DAY. Up tempo off of the huge gashing runs with TE slants, and hitches... but no... we hit a big run then tried to hit a deep ball. It was as predictable as cloudy skies in Seattle in the winter.
Putting Wilson in the slot and using him as he is usually deployed would have done two things. Gotten him off of the true frosh CB who is outstanding and given Justin some easy throws to net yards and YAC. No LB on NW can run with Wilson.
The hindsight is 20/20 is that Jameson should have gone to Z, and used him as a decoy or OMG actually throw him the damn ball and moved Fleming to X and left Wilson in his normal spot.
My read on the D, was that they avoided giving up easy deep balls to a mediocre QB which is something they haven't really done all season. That was a HUGE improvement.
I LOVED Justin Hilliard getting a full game and it's now clear that he and Browning should play at the same time and never come off the field. I've thought this since the offseason that Baron needs to be a stand up DE, and we need to go to a hybrid 3/4 for most of the CFP game. I wasn't sure Justin could handle the full LB resp at SAM... but he is BEYOND athletic enough to match up there, and Baron has special burst off the edge... PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do this in the CFP.
Togiai and Garret are MONSTERs and can play 2 gap. Coop is SOLID at the down DE as most teams go with 5 OL anyway. We can spin 11 and 54 in as needed but Browning and Hilliard need to be on the field.
We're gonna need some magic and Day/Wilson need to get back to what they generally do best.
I'll give my forecast next week, but right now I think Clemson won't grok how good our run game is right now.. and that Day will put visions of Daryl Lamonica in the closet.
What a shit show 2020 has been. At least we had some semblance of a CFB season, and some semblance is better than none.
Based on what I saw Saturday, OSU is NOT ready for the CFP. We haven't played enough games to get things sorted out on either side of the ball, but we are CLOSE. So the open question moving forward is whether we can pull it together for what would be a season defining mid-season game in the CFP.
Avenge the loss to Clemson... and 2020 = mission accomplished. Whatever happens beyond that is icing.
The game Saturday was the worst coaching job Day has done since he's been at OSU. Period.
Thankfully, NW offense is so moribund that we were able to "escape" with a win where we rushed for nearly 400 (399) yards. Think about that ... we rushed for 399 and held the opponent to 10 points. So guess the final score??? 65-10 maybe.
In a game where we had 12 possessions and rushed for 399 we scored 22 points... yup fans that's 1.8 points per possession. In the game v Indy where we frittered away most of H2 and rushed for 300 we scored 2.8/poss and in the next closest game this season against PSU we scored 3.5.
Clearly we haven't had the time, or inclination, to develop the 3rd receiver this season and moving Wilson from the Slot to Z to replace Olave hurt us twice. Fleming is really an X or Z, but isn't ready.. Smith-Njigba was also out.. and Wilson is OK at Z but prototypical for the slot.
Most every team in the B10, and really CFB overall, aligns to stop the run and defend the pass with 1 high safety. NW, like Bama and many other teams start with two high but rotate one down to stop the run.
No rotation on Saturday my friends. On most plays NW looked like the Green Bay Packers..... under Vince Lombardi. I have no problem that Day and Wilson went into the game thinking they would try and rip the top off. I have a MAJOR problem that they didn't adjust. It reminded may of old Oakland Raider games where Al Davis (or Madden as his proxy) would spend the whole game trying to hit the deep ball and then pull out the win with desperation throws to Dave Casper and the dude the CFB award for WR excellence is given to... Fast Freddy Biletnikoff.
BTW someone who didn't play Saturday reminds me of Fast Freddy. Not having him was a bigger loss than we thought going in. Hopefully, he'll be back and more hopefully... Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have a meeting of the minds as to how they want to use the Deep Ball. and the 1960's/70's Oakland Raider scheme isn't it. Or rather not the one they used until the 4th quarter.
The OL was ROLLING. NW run D isn't that great, but they aren't swiss cheese either, and we gashed them for 399 yards including sacks. Unfortunately, in a game where we rushed for 400 we gave up 3 sacks. In this game it was a manifestation of the fundamental problem with the scheme... not the OL blocking.
Without Olave, we generally moved Wilson to the Z and spent most of the game unsuccessfully trying to hit the deep ball with little chance against the scheme NW was in and no slot receiver to punish NW for over playing the deep ball.
Fleming is good, but his is a true frosh and had 3 receptions all season (ahem 3 games with stats) coming into the game. The fascinating stat here is that he was the LEADING receiver. Wilson had 4 for 49 yards, Jameson Williamson had 0.0, So by the way did the TEs. For reference ... in the aforementioned IU game Wilson from the SLOT had 169 yards on 7 balls. Olave in that game had 101.
As a team we had 114 yards in the air... Olave has averaged 105 on the season. Think we missed him. Yes. but it didn't have to be that way. The quick underneath throws were there all DAY. Up tempo off of the huge gashing runs with TE slants, and hitches... but no... we hit a big run then tried to hit a deep ball. It was as predictable as cloudy skies in Seattle in the winter.
Putting Wilson in the slot and using him as he is usually deployed would have done two things. Gotten him off of the true frosh CB who is outstanding and given Justin some easy throws to net yards and YAC. No LB on NW can run with Wilson.
The hindsight is 20/20 is that Jameson should have gone to Z, and used him as a decoy or OMG actually throw him the damn ball and moved Fleming to X and left Wilson in his normal spot.
My read on the D, was that they avoided giving up easy deep balls to a mediocre QB which is something they haven't really done all season. That was a HUGE improvement.
I LOVED Justin Hilliard getting a full game and it's now clear that he and Browning should play at the same time and never come off the field. I've thought this since the offseason that Baron needs to be a stand up DE, and we need to go to a hybrid 3/4 for most of the CFP game. I wasn't sure Justin could handle the full LB resp at SAM... but he is BEYOND athletic enough to match up there, and Baron has special burst off the edge... PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do this in the CFP.
Togiai and Garret are MONSTERs and can play 2 gap. Coop is SOLID at the down DE as most teams go with 5 OL anyway. We can spin 11 and 54 in as needed but Browning and Hilliard need to be on the field.
We're gonna need some magic and Day/Wilson need to get back to what they generally do best.
I'll give my forecast next week, but right now I think Clemson won't grok how good our run game is right now.. and that Day will put visions of Daryl Lamonica in the closet.
