It’s Michigan Monday.
Six days from now, Ohio State will be taking on Michigan in the 117th edition of The Game. This time, it’s for all the marbles: the Big Ten East title, a spot in the Big Ten Championship, a possible spot in the College Football Playoff.
It’s how The Game should be played.
As the Buckeyes prepare for that bus trip to Ann Arbor Friday, here are the 10 things I’m thinking about this week.
Let’s put The Game in a bit of context.
Ohio State and Michigan will be facing off for the 117th time, with the Wolverines holding the 58-52-6 series lead.
Michigan has not beaten Ohio State since a 40-34 win in Ann Arbor Nov. 26, 2011. Come Saturday at noon, the Buckeyes’ eight-game win streak against the Wolverines would have started 3,290 days prior.
Since 2000, 11 of the matchups between Ohio State and Michigan have been between two ranked teams, not including Saturday’s upcoming bout. Four of the matchups have been between two top-10 opponents, including 2016 with No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan and 2006 with No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan.
Since Ohio State’s last loss to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor in 2011, the Buckeyes have outscored Michigan, 331-216, with three games — 2016, 2013 and 2012 — decided by one score.
Since Ryan Day joined the Ohio State coaching staff prior to the start of the 2018 season, the Buckeyes have averaged 59 points against Michigan.
Since Jim Harbaugh took as Michigan’s head coach in 2015, the Wolverines have come within three points of beating the Buckeyes in 2016, while the rest of the games were decided by an average of 23 points.
When the Buckeyes take the field in Ann Arbor Saturday afternoon, it will have been 728 days since Ohio State last played Michigan.
How have Ohio State quarterbacks done against Michigan during the win streak?
It’s important that we separate this into before Day and after Day.
Before Day, no Ohio State quarterback had recorded more than 189 passing yards in the Buckeyes’ six wins against Michigan between 2012-17.
With Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Dwayne Haskins — in a short 2017 stint — most of the success was found in the ground game. In those six games, Ohio State quarterbacks averaged 5.6 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns and four 100-yard rushing games.
Now after Day, things changed.
Dwayne Haskins and Justin FIelds picked Michigan’s pass defense apart for 698 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 60.7% of their pass attempts.
Really, this is just a short showcase at the transformation of the quarterback position at Ohio State, from Miller, Barrett and the Urban Meyer era to Haskins and Fields under Day. While Fields is a true dual-threat quarterback, which he showed in spurts during both of his seasons with the Buckeyes, he could still play the part of running Day’s looks and the pro-style offense that he utilizes.
And now there’s C.J. Stroud.
There’s one tweet that I can’t seem to get out of my head.
The intentions are good, saying that both redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud and Alabama sophomore quarterback Bryce Young have separated themselves in the Heisman race as 1A and 1B. But this is all the tweet said.
Just pure stat lines, no context at all.
Both had stellar days, yes. Young has been extreme;y good for the Crimson Tide. But what those numbers don’t say really take away how other-worldly Stroud has been for the Buckeyes as of late.
Those 32 completions on 35 attempts for 432 yards and six touchdowns was done in one half and one drive in the third quarter before he was taken out, resting him for what’s next/
That’s not normal. That’s not comparable.
When you look at Heisman lines, people see that differentiation, putting Stroud as the favorite to win the trophy come December as a -200 favorite on Bovada and Bet-MGM, and a -220 favorite on Caesars.
But let’s take a step back and realize what Stroud is doing this season, something head coach Ryan Day and the members of the offense can’t really do at this point.
He entered without a single collegiate pass to his name and now is on the path to becoming the second 4,000-yard passer in Ohio State history and in Big Ten history: a streak broken by Haskins in 2018.. He’s on a path to have three 1,000-yard wide receivers in Garrett Wilson, Jaxon-Smith Njigba and Chris Olave for a program that had five 1,000-yard receivers in its history prior to the start of 2021.
Add a 1,000-yard freshman running back to the mix, and you have an offense that’s unprecedented in Ohio State history, in Big Ten history and college football history, something West Virginia came close to in 2017, but really didn’t have a chance at.
That’s nuts. Like truly insane.
There will be plenty of time in between Ohio State’s final stretch of games and its bowl games to go through what worked so well, why Stroud was perfect for Day and why Day was perfect for Stroud.
But simply, this is historic. This is unprecedented.
Now what will Stroud face against Michigan?
First of all, Stroud is in a similar boat as a lot of players on Ohio State’s roster: they have never experienced a game against Michigan.
They have experienced the hatred, have seen the timer tick down in the Woody Hayes Athletic Center and could have an idea of what to expect from the older players on the roster. However, players like Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson, defensive back Denzel Burke, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, running back Miyan Williams, etc. have never played against the Wolverines.
That will be a factor.
With that out of the way, let’s look at how Michigan has done against opposing passing games.
Ohio State has not seen a pass defense like Michigan’s yet this season.
The Wolverines have the second-best pass defense in the Big Ten and the No. 8 pass defense in the country, allowing 178.4 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Eleven of Michigan’s 21 touchdowns allowed this season — giving up 16.3 points per game — are passing touchdowns
So who was the best quarterback against Michigan this season? Washington’s Dylan Morris, who completed 293 passes on 54% passing and a touchdown. Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez also recorded 291 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Wolverines.
Michigan’s pass defense is one that thrives off the rush. Opposing quarterbacks only complete 54.6% of pass attempts against the Wolverines: third-lowest in the Big Ten. Michigan is fourth in the Big Ten with 29 sacks in 11 games, led by linebacker David Ojabo (10) and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (9.5).
But it’s not a pass defense that takes advantage of turnovers, with only seven interceptions all season. Defensive back Daxton Hill is tied for the team lead with two interceptions with DJ Turner, who both have combined for 12 pass breakups.
For the Michigan offense, running the ball is its bread and butter.
It helps to have two running backs that have been incredibly good for Michigan this season.
Blake Corum has not played for Michigan since his one carry for four yards against Indiana Nov. 6, returning to the sideline with a boot on his right foot. Corum was apparently available to play against Maryland, but did not see the field.
When he’s been on the field, Corum’s been impressive, averaging six yards per carry and 86.44 yards per game, scoring 10 touchdowns.
Hassan Haskins, Michigan’s leading rusher, has had a chance to pick up Corum’s slack with 96.64 yards per game and 1,063 rushing yards this season along with 13 touchdowns. In the past three games, Haskins has recorded 20 carries or more, averaging 5.2 yards per touch with three touchdowns.
Freshman back Donovan Edwards was also important in the checkdown game with quarterback Cade McNamara, bringing in 10 catches and 170 yards and a touchdown in the pass game.
However, when faced with a stout run game, Michigan struggled.
Against Wisconsin Oct. 2, the No. 1 rush defense in the country, the Wolverines could muster 112 yards and one touchdown on 44 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per rush.
Ohio State has the No. 11 rush defense in the country, allowing 102.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush. The Buckeyes are one of 17 teams in college football that have failed to allow 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
So what will happen in this latest edition of the game?
I don’t have to give you all my score prediction yet.
However, I do think Day has an idea of what Michigan’s going to bring defensively. He knows the pressure Ojabo and Hutchinson bring. But no matter what kind of defense the Buckeyes have faced against Michigan since Day’s been in Columbus, the offense has still picked it apart.
That’s what Ohio State’s going to hang its hat on Saturday. If Michigan is going to beat Ohio State, it’s going to have to keep up with Ohio State, something it could do if the running game gets mixed with McNamara’s passing game, which has steadily improved over the course of the 2021 season.
On paper, this is Ohio State’s game to lose. But this is a game in which stats don’t matter, nor do previous games.
This is The Game, and it’s for all the marbles.
Who the hell knows?
Who will the winner of this game play in the Big Ten championship?
Wisconsin and Iowa are currently tied at the top of the Big Ten West, each with a 6-2 record in conference play.
All the Badgers need to do is win its final game against Minnesota, and it’s into the Big Ten Championship, with its No. 1 rush defense in the country and its No. 9 rush offense in the country, top-ranked in the Big Ten.
Iowa needs some help.
The Hawkeyes need to beat Nebraska and Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota to earn a spot in the Big Ten title game. But after a 27-7 loss to the Badgers Oct. 20, Iowa holds the distinct disadvantage heading into the final game of the regular season.
What will the final College Football Playoff rankings look like heading into the final week of the regular season?
I’ll give you my top-10.
I’ll make these quick and to the point
First of all: Happy Thanksgiving week!
As my gift to you all, I give you my favorite song from The Last Waltz: “Coyote” by Joni Mitchell.
It is a song that is truly before its time, the best vocal performance from this show from one of the best storytellers out there at this time. Mitchell is cool and confident in this song, sitting in her pocket and just taking us through. Also, The Band kills the backing accompaniment.
This song rules and it’s something that makes this show timeless.
Watch this movie if you have the time. It's a thanksgiving classic, and one I cherish each time I watch it.
See you on the board.
Six days from now, Ohio State will be taking on Michigan in the 117th edition of The Game. This time, it’s for all the marbles: the Big Ten East title, a spot in the Big Ten Championship, a possible spot in the College Football Playoff.
It’s how The Game should be played.
As the Buckeyes prepare for that bus trip to Ann Arbor Friday, here are the 10 things I’m thinking about this week.
Let’s put The Game in a bit of context.
Ohio State and Michigan will be facing off for the 117th time, with the Wolverines holding the 58-52-6 series lead.
Michigan has not beaten Ohio State since a 40-34 win in Ann Arbor Nov. 26, 2011. Come Saturday at noon, the Buckeyes’ eight-game win streak against the Wolverines would have started 3,290 days prior.
Since 2000, 11 of the matchups between Ohio State and Michigan have been between two ranked teams, not including Saturday’s upcoming bout. Four of the matchups have been between two top-10 opponents, including 2016 with No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan and 2006 with No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan.
Since Ohio State’s last loss to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor in 2011, the Buckeyes have outscored Michigan, 331-216, with three games — 2016, 2013 and 2012 — decided by one score.
Since Ryan Day joined the Ohio State coaching staff prior to the start of the 2018 season, the Buckeyes have averaged 59 points against Michigan.
Since Jim Harbaugh took as Michigan’s head coach in 2015, the Wolverines have come within three points of beating the Buckeyes in 2016, while the rest of the games were decided by an average of 23 points.
When the Buckeyes take the field in Ann Arbor Saturday afternoon, it will have been 728 days since Ohio State last played Michigan.
How have Ohio State quarterbacks done against Michigan during the win streak?
It’s important that we separate this into before Day and after Day.
Before Day, no Ohio State quarterback had recorded more than 189 passing yards in the Buckeyes’ six wins against Michigan between 2012-17.
With Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones and Dwayne Haskins — in a short 2017 stint — most of the success was found in the ground game. In those six games, Ohio State quarterbacks averaged 5.6 yards per carry with 10 rushing touchdowns and four 100-yard rushing games.
Now after Day, things changed.
Dwayne Haskins and Justin FIelds picked Michigan’s pass defense apart for 698 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 60.7% of their pass attempts.
Really, this is just a short showcase at the transformation of the quarterback position at Ohio State, from Miller, Barrett and the Urban Meyer era to Haskins and Fields under Day. While Fields is a true dual-threat quarterback, which he showed in spurts during both of his seasons with the Buckeyes, he could still play the part of running Day’s looks and the pro-style offense that he utilizes.
And now there’s C.J. Stroud.
There’s one tweet that I can’t seem to get out of my head.
The intentions are good, saying that both redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud and Alabama sophomore quarterback Bryce Young have separated themselves in the Heisman race as 1A and 1B. But this is all the tweet said.
Just pure stat lines, no context at all.
Both had stellar days, yes. Young has been extreme;y good for the Crimson Tide. But what those numbers don’t say really take away how other-worldly Stroud has been for the Buckeyes as of late.
Those 32 completions on 35 attempts for 432 yards and six touchdowns was done in one half and one drive in the third quarter before he was taken out, resting him for what’s next/
That’s not normal. That’s not comparable.
When you look at Heisman lines, people see that differentiation, putting Stroud as the favorite to win the trophy come December as a -200 favorite on Bovada and Bet-MGM, and a -220 favorite on Caesars.
But let’s take a step back and realize what Stroud is doing this season, something head coach Ryan Day and the members of the offense can’t really do at this point.
He entered without a single collegiate pass to his name and now is on the path to becoming the second 4,000-yard passer in Ohio State history and in Big Ten history: a streak broken by Haskins in 2018.. He’s on a path to have three 1,000-yard wide receivers in Garrett Wilson, Jaxon-Smith Njigba and Chris Olave for a program that had five 1,000-yard receivers in its history prior to the start of 2021.
Add a 1,000-yard freshman running back to the mix, and you have an offense that’s unprecedented in Ohio State history, in Big Ten history and college football history, something West Virginia came close to in 2017, but really didn’t have a chance at.
That’s nuts. Like truly insane.
There will be plenty of time in between Ohio State’s final stretch of games and its bowl games to go through what worked so well, why Stroud was perfect for Day and why Day was perfect for Stroud.
But simply, this is historic. This is unprecedented.
Now what will Stroud face against Michigan?
First of all, Stroud is in a similar boat as a lot of players on Ohio State’s roster: they have never experienced a game against Michigan.
They have experienced the hatred, have seen the timer tick down in the Woody Hayes Athletic Center and could have an idea of what to expect from the older players on the roster. However, players like Stroud, running back TreVeyon Henderson, defensive back Denzel Burke, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, running back Miyan Williams, etc. have never played against the Wolverines.
That will be a factor.
With that out of the way, let’s look at how Michigan has done against opposing passing games.
Ohio State has not seen a pass defense like Michigan’s yet this season.
The Wolverines have the second-best pass defense in the Big Ten and the No. 8 pass defense in the country, allowing 178.4 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Eleven of Michigan’s 21 touchdowns allowed this season — giving up 16.3 points per game — are passing touchdowns
So who was the best quarterback against Michigan this season? Washington’s Dylan Morris, who completed 293 passes on 54% passing and a touchdown. Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez also recorded 291 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Wolverines.
Michigan’s pass defense is one that thrives off the rush. Opposing quarterbacks only complete 54.6% of pass attempts against the Wolverines: third-lowest in the Big Ten. Michigan is fourth in the Big Ten with 29 sacks in 11 games, led by linebacker David Ojabo (10) and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (9.5).
But it’s not a pass defense that takes advantage of turnovers, with only seven interceptions all season. Defensive back Daxton Hill is tied for the team lead with two interceptions with DJ Turner, who both have combined for 12 pass breakups.
For the Michigan offense, running the ball is its bread and butter.
It helps to have two running backs that have been incredibly good for Michigan this season.
Blake Corum has not played for Michigan since his one carry for four yards against Indiana Nov. 6, returning to the sideline with a boot on his right foot. Corum was apparently available to play against Maryland, but did not see the field.
When he’s been on the field, Corum’s been impressive, averaging six yards per carry and 86.44 yards per game, scoring 10 touchdowns.
Hassan Haskins, Michigan’s leading rusher, has had a chance to pick up Corum’s slack with 96.64 yards per game and 1,063 rushing yards this season along with 13 touchdowns. In the past three games, Haskins has recorded 20 carries or more, averaging 5.2 yards per touch with three touchdowns.
Freshman back Donovan Edwards was also important in the checkdown game with quarterback Cade McNamara, bringing in 10 catches and 170 yards and a touchdown in the pass game.
However, when faced with a stout run game, Michigan struggled.
Against Wisconsin Oct. 2, the No. 1 rush defense in the country, the Wolverines could muster 112 yards and one touchdown on 44 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per rush.
Ohio State has the No. 11 rush defense in the country, allowing 102.3 yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush. The Buckeyes are one of 17 teams in college football that have failed to allow 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
So what will happen in this latest edition of the game?
I don’t have to give you all my score prediction yet.
However, I do think Day has an idea of what Michigan’s going to bring defensively. He knows the pressure Ojabo and Hutchinson bring. But no matter what kind of defense the Buckeyes have faced against Michigan since Day’s been in Columbus, the offense has still picked it apart.
That’s what Ohio State’s going to hang its hat on Saturday. If Michigan is going to beat Ohio State, it’s going to have to keep up with Ohio State, something it could do if the running game gets mixed with McNamara’s passing game, which has steadily improved over the course of the 2021 season.
On paper, this is Ohio State’s game to lose. But this is a game in which stats don’t matter, nor do previous games.
This is The Game, and it’s for all the marbles.
Who the hell knows?
Who will the winner of this game play in the Big Ten championship?
Wisconsin and Iowa are currently tied at the top of the Big Ten West, each with a 6-2 record in conference play.
All the Badgers need to do is win its final game against Minnesota, and it’s into the Big Ten Championship, with its No. 1 rush defense in the country and its No. 9 rush offense in the country, top-ranked in the Big Ten.
Iowa needs some help.
The Hawkeyes need to beat Nebraska and Wisconsin to lose to Minnesota to earn a spot in the Big Ten title game. But after a 27-7 loss to the Badgers Oct. 20, Iowa holds the distinct disadvantage heading into the final game of the regular season.
What will the final College Football Playoff rankings look like heading into the final week of the regular season?
I’ll give you my top-10.
- Georgia
- Alabama — The Crimson Tide won. Alabama will stay here until the SEC championship game, assuming it beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl Saturday.
- Ohio State
- Cincinnati — The Bearcats showed up Saturday with a dominant performance. I think they make their debut in the top-four, securing a spot in the Playoff if they win out.
- Michigan
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma State
- Baylor
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
I’ll make these quick and to the point
- Size is definitely an issue for Ohio State, something that will hurt them against Seton Hall Monday night.
- E.J. Liddell is everything that he said he would be. The junior forward is a superstar and is carrying a team that is hobbling right now.
- Ohio State is missing Justice Sueing desperately, and don’t truly have the experience or the established talent to replace him at wing, while Eugene Brown III and Malaki Branham have both shown spurts of potential.
- Meechie Johnson Jr. is one of the most erratic, but fun players I’ve seen.
- Zed Key has some challenges ahead, but will need to play much bigger than he is, or Ohio State is in major trouble.
First of all: Happy Thanksgiving week!
As my gift to you all, I give you my favorite song from The Last Waltz: “Coyote” by Joni Mitchell.
It is a song that is truly before its time, the best vocal performance from this show from one of the best storytellers out there at this time. Mitchell is cool and confident in this song, sitting in her pocket and just taking us through. Also, The Band kills the backing accompaniment.
This song rules and it’s something that makes this show timeless.
Watch this movie if you have the time. It's a thanksgiving classic, and one I cherish each time I watch it.
See you on the board.
