Happy Monday!
The last leg of the Ohio State men’s basketball regular season is upon us as tournament play comes closer and closer. Spring practice for Ohio State football is coming closer and closer as well.
There’s plenty to talk about, so let’s start now. Here are 10 thoughts ahead of this week.
And we have to start with the Buckeyes on the hardwood.
Iowa wasn’t the end of the world. Here’s why Indiana could be.
Chris Holtmann wasn’t nonchalant about Ohio State’s performance Saturday night against Iowa.
The offensive rebound numbers were appalling, along with the offensive performances of players not named Malaki Branham and E.J. Liddell, even when the senior was swarmed by multiple Hawkeye defenders each time he touched the ball.
But the Ohio State head coach put things into perspective.
It was one loss, something the Buckeyes hadn’t done at home all season long, shutting down the hopes of teams like Duke and Wisconsin in front of an audience that, at times, has turned a massive arena that seemed to only be filled when Dua Lipa and Radiohead came to town, into a somewhat raucous college basketball atmosphere.
Here’s where it becomes a problem: Indiana, a team that ran the Buckeyes out of Assembly Hall Jan. 6 with a mix of length and physicality on each side of the court, getting second chance opportunities much like Iowa did and taking advantage.
If Trayce Jackson-Davis and company hand Ohio State its first set of back-to-back losses this season, two could turn quickly into three with a trip to Champaign on the horizon Thursday night.
Sitting pretty in the top half of the Big Ten currently as a No. 4 seed behind Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois, losing two of three matchups next week to Indiana, Illinois or Maryland could bring Ohio State down from a first-round bye in the conference tournament to starting tournament play a day earlier.
It’s not that one loss to Iowa did that or another loss to Indiana would do that either. It’s the snowball effect, with four of Ohio State’s six remaining games of the regular season being against top-45 teams in the country according to KenPom.
So what does the Big Ten tournament picture look like heading into Monday’s game?
Ohio State is currently a four-seed in the Big Ten tournament and would face either Rutgers or the winner of Minnesota and Nebraska in the quarterfinals.
The Buckeyes would be on the same side of the bracket as Indiana and Michigan and No. 1 Purdue.
And if that wasn’t enough, if the Buckeyes were able to get through to the final, they could be facing anyone from Wisconsin and Illinois to Michigan State, Penn State and Iowa.
That’s a workload, something that seems to look nearly impossible for this Ohio State team.
As for winning the conference, it seems to be a three-team race between Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois, who each have four losses heading into their final four (Wisconsin, Illinois) or three games. The Badgers and the Boilermakers will face off March 1, but it seems like no team with more than five losses will get that No. 1 seed.
As for the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, Ohio State still has matchups with Michigan State and Michigan, who could be within striking distance. It’s really anyone’s ballgame, especially with the Buckeyes still having six games left.
Who needs to step up behind E.J. Liddell?
Holtmann basically put up a help wanted sign from the postgame interview room at Value City Arena Saturday night,
“I think we have to have guys a little bit more ready to shoot than what they were,” Holtmann said. “We need more offensive firepower from guys other than E.J. We just do.”
Holtmann seemingly eliminated Malaki Branham from the conversation, admitting he shouldn’t be playing the freshman guard so many minutes and that he’s worried about the inevitable “freshman wall.” But the head coach still called out the guards, looking for more stability offensively.
Really, that leaves one player: Jamari Wheeler.
If you look at his advanced metrics, he’s one of the most important offensive pieces the Buckeyes have. The Penn State transfer has the team’s best effective field goal percentage (58.9%), true shooting percentage (62.2%) and two-point field goal percentage (62.5), only one of two players that play more than 40% of Ohio State’s minutes that have a percentage over 60%.
And that comes from a player that shoots only 12.9% of the time, in the same range as Eugene Brown III, Joey Brunk and Jimmy Sotos.
So far this season, Wheeler has a career high in offensive box plus/minus (1.4) and box plus/minus (4.6) despite the lowest defensive block plus/minus of his career.
Wheeler’s offensive output has increased, and it’s worked for Ohio State. The Buckeyes just need him a lot more in that area.
So where does E.J. Liddell actually rate in the Big Ten Player of the Year competition?
The Big Ten has a lot of good basketball players. Shocker, I know.
But Liddell feels he should be right up there in the conversation for the conference’s highest honor: Player of the Year.
And while there are many players that make a case, from Purdue’s trio of Zach Edey, Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey, Michigan center Hunter Dickinson and Illinois center Hunter Dickinson, a lot of the focus has been on three players: Liddell, Wisconsin guard Johnny Davus and Iowa forward Keegan Murray.
Let’s break down each of their numbers, looking at points per game, rebounds per game, field goal percentage, total shooting percentage, total rebound percentage, turnover percentage, win shares and box plus/minus.
Liddell: 19.7 PTS, 7.6 TRB, .515 FG%, .612 TS%, 14.3 TRB%, 13.3 TOV%, 4.7 WS, 12.8 BPM
Davis: 20.7 PTS, 8.3 TRB, .441 FG%, .533 TS%, 12.6 TRB%, 10.2 TOV%, 3.8 WS, 10.1 BPM
Murray: 23.4 PTS, 8.2 TRB, .561 FG%, .635 TS%, 14.7 TRB%, 5.9 TOV%, 5.9 WS, 14.9 BPM
This may not be the most popular choice, but the answer seems to be quite clear here. Even compared to Cockburn and Dickinson, no one has seemingly meant more to their respective teams than Murrray to Iowa.
Where the Hawkeyes finish matters too, so Liddell seems to be right in the conversation, but Murray showed his potential to Ohio State Saturday night, something he’s done all season long.
Sorry Buckeye fans, this one doesn’t seem to be coming to Columbus.
Here’s some other notes from the Iowa loss.
Earlier this month, ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly released his SP+ preseason projections for the 2022 season.
And Ohio State fans should be pleased.
After finishing as the No. 2 team in the country at the end of the 2021 season according to this tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency — which is intended to be measure sustainability in the future — Ohio State found itself at No. 1, 2.7 points ahead of reigning national champion Georgia.
And it’s because of the offense, bringing in a SP+ rating of 47.9, 5.4 points higher than the Bulldogs’ rating with the benefit of returning players like quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Defensively, Ohio State is No. 11, 5.9 points behind Clemson for the op spot.
Again, this doesn’t mean much, but this just shows from a national angle where Ohio State sits. And it’s pretty damn good at this point.
Here’s what’s on the offseason checklist for Ohio State’s defensive line.
Just like we did last week with the quarterbacks, here’s three things Ohio State’s defensive line room must do this offseason to set up for a successful fall.
You don’t have to worry about Ohio State’s latest commit taking any more visits. 2023 four-star offensive tackle Luke Montgomery is all in.
“I’m done with visits for sure. I’m shutting that down. I want to be in Columbus,” he said. “I think it’s kind of disrespectful, to be honest with you. If you are committed somewhere, you are committed somewhere, and I will be like that for sure.”
You guys are going to like this kid.
From the moment he put on his hat, picking Ohio State over Michigan, Clemson, Notre Dame and Alabama, he instantly became the leader of the 2023 class, talking about recruiting other members to join him to be the No. 1-ranked class in the country.
He has the personality to do that. And along with being an Ohio kid, this is personal to him. The intensity was there from the jump, something that will only grow as time goes on.
Ryan Montgomery’s decision is coming soon.
When I was at Findlay, I was joking with some of my colleagues that were there: we may all be doing this again here in a calendar year.
As I wrote last week, when Luke Montgomery’s decision was made, the attention seemingly automatically switched to Ryan Montgomery: the 2025 quarterback standing behind him, who already has offers from Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Ryan Montgomery said that he wants his decision to be made sooner rather than later, possibly committing prior to the start of his junior season at FIndlay High School.
So maybe in a calendar year, I may be making the drive back to that interchange between 23 and 75 to Findlay High School to see another ceremony.
Song of the Week
So I’ve been going through the Dick’s Picks series of Grateful Dead shows along with a podcast called “36 From the Vault,” periodically through the past year or so, and I’m up to No. 14.
This whole edition, which is compilation from the Dead’s shows at Boston Music Hall on Nov.. 30 and Dec. 2, 1973, has a lot of great renditions of some of the best songs by this band, whether it’s “Morning Dew,” “Eyes of the World” or “Playing in the Band.”
However, this song from the Nov. 30 show always puts a smile on my face, just because of the opening guitar riff. It’s a beautiful rendition of a beautiful song.
See you on the board.
The last leg of the Ohio State men’s basketball regular season is upon us as tournament play comes closer and closer. Spring practice for Ohio State football is coming closer and closer as well.
There’s plenty to talk about, so let’s start now. Here are 10 thoughts ahead of this week.
And we have to start with the Buckeyes on the hardwood.
Iowa wasn’t the end of the world. Here’s why Indiana could be.
Chris Holtmann wasn’t nonchalant about Ohio State’s performance Saturday night against Iowa.
The offensive rebound numbers were appalling, along with the offensive performances of players not named Malaki Branham and E.J. Liddell, even when the senior was swarmed by multiple Hawkeye defenders each time he touched the ball.
But the Ohio State head coach put things into perspective.
It was one loss, something the Buckeyes hadn’t done at home all season long, shutting down the hopes of teams like Duke and Wisconsin in front of an audience that, at times, has turned a massive arena that seemed to only be filled when Dua Lipa and Radiohead came to town, into a somewhat raucous college basketball atmosphere.
Here’s where it becomes a problem: Indiana, a team that ran the Buckeyes out of Assembly Hall Jan. 6 with a mix of length and physicality on each side of the court, getting second chance opportunities much like Iowa did and taking advantage.
If Trayce Jackson-Davis and company hand Ohio State its first set of back-to-back losses this season, two could turn quickly into three with a trip to Champaign on the horizon Thursday night.
Sitting pretty in the top half of the Big Ten currently as a No. 4 seed behind Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois, losing two of three matchups next week to Indiana, Illinois or Maryland could bring Ohio State down from a first-round bye in the conference tournament to starting tournament play a day earlier.
It’s not that one loss to Iowa did that or another loss to Indiana would do that either. It’s the snowball effect, with four of Ohio State’s six remaining games of the regular season being against top-45 teams in the country according to KenPom.
So what does the Big Ten tournament picture look like heading into Monday’s game?
Ohio State is currently a four-seed in the Big Ten tournament and would face either Rutgers or the winner of Minnesota and Nebraska in the quarterfinals.
The Buckeyes would be on the same side of the bracket as Indiana and Michigan and No. 1 Purdue.
And if that wasn’t enough, if the Buckeyes were able to get through to the final, they could be facing anyone from Wisconsin and Illinois to Michigan State, Penn State and Iowa.
That’s a workload, something that seems to look nearly impossible for this Ohio State team.
As for winning the conference, it seems to be a three-team race between Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois, who each have four losses heading into their final four (Wisconsin, Illinois) or three games. The Badgers and the Boilermakers will face off March 1, but it seems like no team with more than five losses will get that No. 1 seed.
As for the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, Ohio State still has matchups with Michigan State and Michigan, who could be within striking distance. It’s really anyone’s ballgame, especially with the Buckeyes still having six games left.
Who needs to step up behind E.J. Liddell?
Holtmann basically put up a help wanted sign from the postgame interview room at Value City Arena Saturday night,
“I think we have to have guys a little bit more ready to shoot than what they were,” Holtmann said. “We need more offensive firepower from guys other than E.J. We just do.”
Holtmann seemingly eliminated Malaki Branham from the conversation, admitting he shouldn’t be playing the freshman guard so many minutes and that he’s worried about the inevitable “freshman wall.” But the head coach still called out the guards, looking for more stability offensively.
Really, that leaves one player: Jamari Wheeler.
If you look at his advanced metrics, he’s one of the most important offensive pieces the Buckeyes have. The Penn State transfer has the team’s best effective field goal percentage (58.9%), true shooting percentage (62.2%) and two-point field goal percentage (62.5), only one of two players that play more than 40% of Ohio State’s minutes that have a percentage over 60%.
And that comes from a player that shoots only 12.9% of the time, in the same range as Eugene Brown III, Joey Brunk and Jimmy Sotos.
So far this season, Wheeler has a career high in offensive box plus/minus (1.4) and box plus/minus (4.6) despite the lowest defensive block plus/minus of his career.
Wheeler’s offensive output has increased, and it’s worked for Ohio State. The Buckeyes just need him a lot more in that area.
So where does E.J. Liddell actually rate in the Big Ten Player of the Year competition?
The Big Ten has a lot of good basketball players. Shocker, I know.
But Liddell feels he should be right up there in the conversation for the conference’s highest honor: Player of the Year.
And while there are many players that make a case, from Purdue’s trio of Zach Edey, Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey, Michigan center Hunter Dickinson and Illinois center Hunter Dickinson, a lot of the focus has been on three players: Liddell, Wisconsin guard Johnny Davus and Iowa forward Keegan Murray.
Let’s break down each of their numbers, looking at points per game, rebounds per game, field goal percentage, total shooting percentage, total rebound percentage, turnover percentage, win shares and box plus/minus.
Liddell: 19.7 PTS, 7.6 TRB, .515 FG%, .612 TS%, 14.3 TRB%, 13.3 TOV%, 4.7 WS, 12.8 BPM
Davis: 20.7 PTS, 8.3 TRB, .441 FG%, .533 TS%, 12.6 TRB%, 10.2 TOV%, 3.8 WS, 10.1 BPM
Murray: 23.4 PTS, 8.2 TRB, .561 FG%, .635 TS%, 14.7 TRB%, 5.9 TOV%, 5.9 WS, 14.9 BPM
This may not be the most popular choice, but the answer seems to be quite clear here. Even compared to Cockburn and Dickinson, no one has seemingly meant more to their respective teams than Murrray to Iowa.
Where the Hawkeyes finish matters too, so Liddell seems to be right in the conversation, but Murray showed his potential to Ohio State Saturday night, something he’s done all season long.
Sorry Buckeye fans, this one doesn’t seem to be coming to Columbus.
Here’s some other notes from the Iowa loss.
- The turnovers are back. Ohio State has had back-to-back games with double-digit turnover numbers, including 14 against Iowa Saturday night, which the Hawkeyes responded to with 14 points.
- Kyle Young quietly had one of the best performances of the night, making four of his six attempts from the field with four offensive boards, three assists and a steal.
- Who had the best plus/minus? Eugene Brown III and Jamari Wheeler (-2). Who had the worst? Cedric Russell (-13) Honorable mention: Joey Brunk (-8 in two minutes)
- E.J. Liddell is an absolute animal at the glass. Each block is as breathtaking to watch as the last. One of the most electrifying players in that aspect the Buckeyes have had in a long time.
Earlier this month, ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly released his SP+ preseason projections for the 2022 season.
And Ohio State fans should be pleased.
After finishing as the No. 2 team in the country at the end of the 2021 season according to this tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency — which is intended to be measure sustainability in the future — Ohio State found itself at No. 1, 2.7 points ahead of reigning national champion Georgia.
And it’s because of the offense, bringing in a SP+ rating of 47.9, 5.4 points higher than the Bulldogs’ rating with the benefit of returning players like quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Defensively, Ohio State is No. 11, 5.9 points behind Clemson for the op spot.
Again, this doesn’t mean much, but this just shows from a national angle where Ohio State sits. And it’s pretty damn good at this point.
Here’s what’s on the offseason checklist for Ohio State’s defensive line.
Just like we did last week with the quarterbacks, here’s three things Ohio State’s defensive line room must do this offseason to set up for a successful fall.
- Find the LEO: It’s been one of the main talking points of the entire offseason: who’s going to play that versatile spot on the defensive end. Freshman defensive end Caden Curry confirmed that he was being looked at in that defensive line/linebacker hybrid spot, while former Oklahoma State safety and Ohio State transfer Tanner McCalister said it may be coming from Cade Stover in the linebacker room. However, for a position as vital as the LEO is in JIm Knowles’ defense, this move could be the one that makes or breaks an instant turnaround for the Buckeyes defense.
- Turn Zach Harrison into that dominant option on the outside: Zach Harrison hasn’t been bad in his three years at Ohio State. He’s recorded 16 tackles-for-loss and 7.5 sacks in 27 career games at the college level. But it’s not at a level that a former five-star defensive end expects. That’s why he came back, to become that dominant option he was meant to be on the outside for Ohio State and turn that into draft stock, something that could be vital next season for Knowles.
- Find that consistent replacement for Haskell Garrett on the inside: We all know that Larry Johnson likes to rotate players in and out. It’s something he did even with Haskell Garrett on the roster, balancing him with players like Taron Vincent, Jerron Cage and Tyleik Williams. All three will be incredibly important, especially if the number of tackles changes with only three traditional defensive lineman and a LEO spot. But one will need to be that leader in the middle, something that Garrett did incredibly well.
You don’t have to worry about Ohio State’s latest commit taking any more visits. 2023 four-star offensive tackle Luke Montgomery is all in.
“I’m done with visits for sure. I’m shutting that down. I want to be in Columbus,” he said. “I think it’s kind of disrespectful, to be honest with you. If you are committed somewhere, you are committed somewhere, and I will be like that for sure.”
You guys are going to like this kid.
From the moment he put on his hat, picking Ohio State over Michigan, Clemson, Notre Dame and Alabama, he instantly became the leader of the 2023 class, talking about recruiting other members to join him to be the No. 1-ranked class in the country.
He has the personality to do that. And along with being an Ohio kid, this is personal to him. The intensity was there from the jump, something that will only grow as time goes on.
Ryan Montgomery’s decision is coming soon.
When I was at Findlay, I was joking with some of my colleagues that were there: we may all be doing this again here in a calendar year.
As I wrote last week, when Luke Montgomery’s decision was made, the attention seemingly automatically switched to Ryan Montgomery: the 2025 quarterback standing behind him, who already has offers from Michigan, Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Ryan Montgomery said that he wants his decision to be made sooner rather than later, possibly committing prior to the start of his junior season at FIndlay High School.
So maybe in a calendar year, I may be making the drive back to that interchange between 23 and 75 to Findlay High School to see another ceremony.
Song of the Week
So I’ve been going through the Dick’s Picks series of Grateful Dead shows along with a podcast called “36 From the Vault,” periodically through the past year or so, and I’m up to No. 14.
This whole edition, which is compilation from the Dead’s shows at Boston Music Hall on Nov.. 30 and Dec. 2, 1973, has a lot of great renditions of some of the best songs by this band, whether it’s “Morning Dew,” “Eyes of the World” or “Playing in the Band.”
However, this song from the Nov. 30 show always puts a smile on my face, just because of the opening guitar riff. It’s a beautiful rendition of a beautiful song.
See you on the board.
