Sometimes it’s good to change things up from time to time…
Well, that’s the excuse I’m using for this late edition of my “Monday” morning column.
Nevertheless, here’s what I’m thinking this week.
The NFL Draft will likely be much kinder to quarterbacks in 2023.
After Kenny Pickett was selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the other quarterbacks on the board sat and waited.
While three were projected to be possible first or second round picks in what had been considered as a weak quarterback class, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and company had to wait until the middle of the second day to see another signal caller come off the board.
Starting with Ridder at No. 74 to the Atlanta Falcons, eight other quarterbacks were picked including Willis (Tennessee Titans) and former Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral (Carolina Panthers) in the third round.
While I was watching this draft, seeing Pickett selected at No. 20 and no others selected, I couldn’t help but think about how this will not be happening in 2023.
Possibly, a quarterback could be the first name called.
According to multiple way-too-early mock drafts for 2023, the general consensus seems that Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud will be the first name called at Arrowhead Stadium next April, while some have Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and others have Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. as potential candidates for that top spot.
On paper, especially heading into the 2022 season, it doesn’t seem to be a particularly deep class, with players like Florida’s Anthony Richardson, Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec, Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke, NC State’s Devin Leary, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong, Pittsburgh’s Kedon Slovis, Stanford’s Tanner McKee, Kentucky’s Will Levis and South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler all showing up in a mock draft or two.
But unlike the 2022 Draft, it seems likely that Stroud and Young could have homes before the first five picks are complete, maybe even the first two.
The odds echo this same sentiment.
Who’s at the top? Stroud (+200), Young (+250) and Anderson (+300) according to BetOnline, which seems smart to put money on being the first three players off the board in April 2023.
But Stroud has the chance to not even be the first player from Ohio State selected.
Offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. (+900) and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16/1) have the fourth- and fifth-best odds to be selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, giving Ohio State three of the top five slots.
Not a bad recruiting pitch, huh?
So what numbers do Stroud and Smith-Njigba need to put up to cement themselves as that first player taken?
Let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Since 2009, 10 quarterbacks have been selected as the first overall pick of the NFL Draft. In their final years of college before being selected, these 10 quarterbacks — Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence — completed 68.3% of their passes for an average of 3,710 yards, 33 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions, while none of the last four quarterbacks selected in this spot have recorded more than seven in their final season.
This math is not an accurate picture, especially with Bradford playing only three games in his final season at Oklahoma, but with Stroud completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 passing yards, 44 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, he’s already shown he should be in the running.
As for Smith-Njigba, things get a bit tougher.
No wide receiver or player other than a quarterback, defensive end or offensive tackle has been selected as the first overall pick since USC’s Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, whose numbers the Ohio State receiver could shatter: 102 catches for 1,434 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, Smith-Njigba led the Buckeyes with 95 catches for 1,606 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
It’s not an argument about talent for Smith-Njigba, but more about the durability and longevity of the position itself, keeping quarterbacks, defensive ends and dominant tackles (Johnson?) as the way to go.
What potential first rounders could Ohio State have in 2023?
Here’s where eight different mock drafts have Buckeyes selected heading into April 2023:
QB C.J. Stroud — No. 1 Houston Texans (Sporting News, The Game Haus, Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox), No. 2 Atlanta Falcons (33rd Team), No. 2/3/4 Detroit Lions (Bleacher Report — Jake Rill, Pro Football Network, CBS, Pro Football Focus)
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba — No. 4 New York Jets (Pro Football Network), No. 5 Jacksonville Jaguars (Sporting News, Bleacher Report — Jake Rill), No. 4/6 Carolina Panthers (Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox, 33rd Team), No. 6 New York Giants (The Game Haus), No. 6 Chicago Bears (CBS), No. 19 Arizona Cardinals (Pro Football Focus)
OT Paris Johnson Jr. — No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (33rd Team), No. 11 Pittsburgh Steelers (Bleacher Report — Jake Rill, Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox), No. 12 Las Vegas Raiders (The Game Haus), No. 14 Philadelphia Eagles, No. 21 Arizona Cardinals (Sporting News), No. 22 Cincinnati Bengals (Pro Football Network), No. 32 Buffalo Bills (Pro Football Focus)
OT Dawand Jones — No. 23 Houston Texans (Pro Football Network)
My two cents: I think Ohio State has cemented two first-round picks in Stroud and Smith-Njigba — both of which I expect to be selected in the top-10 — while Johnson is a likely first-round pick and Jones is one that can develop into a first-round selection, returning after being looked at as a second- or third-round option if he chose to leave after last season.
About the elephant in the room…
I’ll start with this: No, Ohio State is not going to get Jordan Addison. Ohio State was never going to get Jordan Addison if he were to go in the transfer portal. It’s clear where he would go: USC.
And this is, reportedly, what he would get:
And then there’s Isaiah Wong, the Miami basketball player whose agent told ESPN that he would enter the transfer portal while maintaining eligibility in the NBA Draft and going through the draft process.
Here’s the thing: this signifies that NIL truly is the wild west.
I feel that players getting a chance to cash in on the likeness is incredibly important and is a great recruiting tool for teams and can expand the college football landscape in large markets like Miami, Atlanta and Los Angeles.
But it’s a free-for-all, especially in the transfer portal with players using NIL as a bargaining chip.
However, it’s business, and it’s always been business.
And I don’t have the right answers here. It’s uncharted territory, especially for a college sports landscape, that preached that right combination of culture, success and development to bring top-tier players in. Sound familiar, Ohio State fans?
I’m not saying I’m not for NIL. I believe it will be good for the sport in the long run, especially for a program like Ohio State. I’m just not sure that it will survive looking like this for much longer.
Let’s overreact to Zed Key, shall we?
If you followed my coverage of the Malaki Branham announcement last week, you know what I am about to get into.
Walking into Ohio State’s practice gym last week to hear from the Ohio State freshman, who announced he was staying in the 2022 NBA Draft, I saw Ohio State’s incoming junior forward putting up shots against a member of the team’s support staff.
Key looked slimmed down and stronger. And based on what he was practicing that afternoon, it looks like he’s trying to expand his game out: working on his mid-range and 3-point game.
Yes, any player on the roster could have looked like this against a member of the support staff. But Key is putting in work, and it’s something Ohio State needs in 2022-23.
Here’s why.
It’s what Ohio State needs in the post: a physical, strong, fit presence down low, even if it’s not the tallest player on the floor, which Key was at times last season. However, the Buckeyes need a presence that can stretch teams out, forcing them to think outside the paint against the forward, something Kyle Young was to opposing defenses last year.
No, Key won’t be a shutdown shooter for Ohio State, not attempting a single 3-point shot in the first two years of his college career.
But this thought is exactly why a player like Young was so valuable for the Buckeyes late in his career. When healthy, he made defenses think about what he could do, showing physicality down low with his unrelenting presence in the paint. He averaged 1.9 3-point attempts per game, shooting 29.4% from deep, but that’s all he had to do: forcing defenses to put some thought of him on the outside.
That’s what Key could be. That’s what Key showed he was training to be, in that 10-minute practice period I saw.
So where will Branham go?
Based on what Chris Holtmann said Wednesday, picking Branham is picking a player with a lot of upside, a player that has the opportunity to continue to grow into his 6-foot-5 frame at 19 years old — which he will be when he is drafted — giving him more strength to add to an already smooth and consistent scoring ability.
In ESPN’s latest mock, Branham is slated to be picked at No. 16 to the Atlanta Hawks, joining point guard Trae Young with his “excellent combination of ready-made production and future growth.”
The Ringer has Branham a bit later at No. 22 with the Memphis Grizzlies, calling him an “unexpected one-and-done player thanks to his blossoming scoring talents,” saying he needs to develop his playmaking ability and 3-point consistency, comparing him to Caris LaVert and Khris Middleton.
For what it’s worth, ESPN has E.J. Liddell at No. 24 to the Milwaukee Bucks (Reaction: Good luck to the rest of the East), while The Ringer has the former Ohio State forward at No. 18 to the Chicago Bulls, comparing him to Paul Millsap and PJ Washington.
Finally, here are the teams that won the NFL Draft:
Baltimore Ravens: With Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum and Michigan defensive end David Ojabo, John Harbaugh got three first-round players in the first 45 picks of the draft, adding in a solid tackle in Minnesota’s Daniel Faalale, a really good value tight end in Coastal Carolina’s Isaiah Likely and former Missouri running back Tyler Badie.
New York Giants: The Giants revamped their lines with their first round picks, bringing in Alabama tackle Evan Neal and Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux: two players that could play for a long, long time. Add in Indiana linebacker Micah McFadden, and that’s one hell of a draft.
New York Jets: Like the Giants, the Jets killed the first round with Cincinnati cornerback Sauce Gardner and Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson. The addition of Iowa State running back Breece Hall at the start of the second round, Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round and Louisiana tackle Max Mitchell in the fourth, something seems to be going right with the Jets right now.
Here’s the “song” of the week.
Like what I’m about to share, this description may be a bit long.
This weekend, I was at a music festival in Atlanta. Instead of spending my time writing this column like I normally do Sunday night, I was jamming to the sweet, sweet sounds of Joe Russo’s Almost Dead and Oysterhead — the trio of Trey Anastasio, Les Claypool and Stewart Copeland: probably the most talent I’ve seen on a stage at one time.
But that’s not what I’m here to talk about.
After seeing the Trey Anastasio Band Saturday night, my lovely brother David and I went to a local Atlanta club to hear a band out of Boston called Neighbor do a late-night set.
It’s a brand new band based out of a bar named Thunder Road in Somerville, one that’s just started to hit the road and, in the process, garner a lot of buzz. I caught some of their festival set that afternoon — including a sit in with String Cheese Incident’s Kyle Hollingsworth — but left to go see back-to-back sets of Spafford and Goose.
In short, I didn’t know what to expect from Neighbor’s show at Aisle 5 Saturday night. And they blew me out of the water.
Soon after the set started, Richard Young, the pianist and lead singer for the band, announced that the band would play a “rock odyssey” that he and his bandmates wrote in 2019, only the fifth time the four-piece had ever performed it in its entirety.
And it was GLORIOUS.
If you watch this video, I'm the guy at the 38-second mark that goes, "Oh, come on."
Guys, this band is going to be huge soon. Here’s a link to the set. Sit back, relax and listen. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
Also, for you Ohio folk, Neighbor will be playing a free show in Hamilton May 27 with a band called Kitchen Dwellers.
mixlr.com
See you on the board.
Well, that’s the excuse I’m using for this late edition of my “Monday” morning column.
Nevertheless, here’s what I’m thinking this week.
The NFL Draft will likely be much kinder to quarterbacks in 2023.
After Kenny Pickett was selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the other quarterbacks on the board sat and waited.
While three were projected to be possible first or second round picks in what had been considered as a weak quarterback class, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and company had to wait until the middle of the second day to see another signal caller come off the board.
Starting with Ridder at No. 74 to the Atlanta Falcons, eight other quarterbacks were picked including Willis (Tennessee Titans) and former Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral (Carolina Panthers) in the third round.
While I was watching this draft, seeing Pickett selected at No. 20 and no others selected, I couldn’t help but think about how this will not be happening in 2023.
Possibly, a quarterback could be the first name called.
According to multiple way-too-early mock drafts for 2023, the general consensus seems that Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud will be the first name called at Arrowhead Stadium next April, while some have Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and others have Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. as potential candidates for that top spot.
On paper, especially heading into the 2022 season, it doesn’t seem to be a particularly deep class, with players like Florida’s Anthony Richardson, Boston College’s Phil Jurkovec, Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke, NC State’s Devin Leary, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong, Pittsburgh’s Kedon Slovis, Stanford’s Tanner McKee, Kentucky’s Will Levis and South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler all showing up in a mock draft or two.
But unlike the 2022 Draft, it seems likely that Stroud and Young could have homes before the first five picks are complete, maybe even the first two.
The odds echo this same sentiment.
Who’s at the top? Stroud (+200), Young (+250) and Anderson (+300) according to BetOnline, which seems smart to put money on being the first three players off the board in April 2023.
But Stroud has the chance to not even be the first player from Ohio State selected.
Offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. (+900) and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16/1) have the fourth- and fifth-best odds to be selected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, giving Ohio State three of the top five slots.
Not a bad recruiting pitch, huh?
So what numbers do Stroud and Smith-Njigba need to put up to cement themselves as that first player taken?
Let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Since 2009, 10 quarterbacks have been selected as the first overall pick of the NFL Draft. In their final years of college before being selected, these 10 quarterbacks — Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence — completed 68.3% of their passes for an average of 3,710 yards, 33 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions, while none of the last four quarterbacks selected in this spot have recorded more than seven in their final season.
This math is not an accurate picture, especially with Bradford playing only three games in his final season at Oklahoma, but with Stroud completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 passing yards, 44 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, he’s already shown he should be in the running.
As for Smith-Njigba, things get a bit tougher.
No wide receiver or player other than a quarterback, defensive end or offensive tackle has been selected as the first overall pick since USC’s Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, whose numbers the Ohio State receiver could shatter: 102 catches for 1,434 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, Smith-Njigba led the Buckeyes with 95 catches for 1,606 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.
It’s not an argument about talent for Smith-Njigba, but more about the durability and longevity of the position itself, keeping quarterbacks, defensive ends and dominant tackles (Johnson?) as the way to go.
What potential first rounders could Ohio State have in 2023?
Here’s where eight different mock drafts have Buckeyes selected heading into April 2023:
QB C.J. Stroud — No. 1 Houston Texans (Sporting News, The Game Haus, Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox), No. 2 Atlanta Falcons (33rd Team), No. 2/3/4 Detroit Lions (Bleacher Report — Jake Rill, Pro Football Network, CBS, Pro Football Focus)
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba — No. 4 New York Jets (Pro Football Network), No. 5 Jacksonville Jaguars (Sporting News, Bleacher Report — Jake Rill), No. 4/6 Carolina Panthers (Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox, 33rd Team), No. 6 New York Giants (The Game Haus), No. 6 Chicago Bears (CBS), No. 19 Arizona Cardinals (Pro Football Focus)
OT Paris Johnson Jr. — No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (33rd Team), No. 11 Pittsburgh Steelers (Bleacher Report — Jake Rill, Bleacher Report — Kristopher Knox), No. 12 Las Vegas Raiders (The Game Haus), No. 14 Philadelphia Eagles, No. 21 Arizona Cardinals (Sporting News), No. 22 Cincinnati Bengals (Pro Football Network), No. 32 Buffalo Bills (Pro Football Focus)
OT Dawand Jones — No. 23 Houston Texans (Pro Football Network)
My two cents: I think Ohio State has cemented two first-round picks in Stroud and Smith-Njigba — both of which I expect to be selected in the top-10 — while Johnson is a likely first-round pick and Jones is one that can develop into a first-round selection, returning after being looked at as a second- or third-round option if he chose to leave after last season.
About the elephant in the room…
I’ll start with this: No, Ohio State is not going to get Jordan Addison. Ohio State was never going to get Jordan Addison if he were to go in the transfer portal. It’s clear where he would go: USC.
And this is, reportedly, what he would get:
And then there’s Isaiah Wong, the Miami basketball player whose agent told ESPN that he would enter the transfer portal while maintaining eligibility in the NBA Draft and going through the draft process.
Here’s the thing: this signifies that NIL truly is the wild west.
I feel that players getting a chance to cash in on the likeness is incredibly important and is a great recruiting tool for teams and can expand the college football landscape in large markets like Miami, Atlanta and Los Angeles.
But it’s a free-for-all, especially in the transfer portal with players using NIL as a bargaining chip.
However, it’s business, and it’s always been business.
And I don’t have the right answers here. It’s uncharted territory, especially for a college sports landscape, that preached that right combination of culture, success and development to bring top-tier players in. Sound familiar, Ohio State fans?
I’m not saying I’m not for NIL. I believe it will be good for the sport in the long run, especially for a program like Ohio State. I’m just not sure that it will survive looking like this for much longer.
Let’s overreact to Zed Key, shall we?
If you followed my coverage of the Malaki Branham announcement last week, you know what I am about to get into.
Walking into Ohio State’s practice gym last week to hear from the Ohio State freshman, who announced he was staying in the 2022 NBA Draft, I saw Ohio State’s incoming junior forward putting up shots against a member of the team’s support staff.
Key looked slimmed down and stronger. And based on what he was practicing that afternoon, it looks like he’s trying to expand his game out: working on his mid-range and 3-point game.
Yes, any player on the roster could have looked like this against a member of the support staff. But Key is putting in work, and it’s something Ohio State needs in 2022-23.
Here’s why.
It’s what Ohio State needs in the post: a physical, strong, fit presence down low, even if it’s not the tallest player on the floor, which Key was at times last season. However, the Buckeyes need a presence that can stretch teams out, forcing them to think outside the paint against the forward, something Kyle Young was to opposing defenses last year.
No, Key won’t be a shutdown shooter for Ohio State, not attempting a single 3-point shot in the first two years of his college career.
But this thought is exactly why a player like Young was so valuable for the Buckeyes late in his career. When healthy, he made defenses think about what he could do, showing physicality down low with his unrelenting presence in the paint. He averaged 1.9 3-point attempts per game, shooting 29.4% from deep, but that’s all he had to do: forcing defenses to put some thought of him on the outside.
That’s what Key could be. That’s what Key showed he was training to be, in that 10-minute practice period I saw.
So where will Branham go?
Based on what Chris Holtmann said Wednesday, picking Branham is picking a player with a lot of upside, a player that has the opportunity to continue to grow into his 6-foot-5 frame at 19 years old — which he will be when he is drafted — giving him more strength to add to an already smooth and consistent scoring ability.
In ESPN’s latest mock, Branham is slated to be picked at No. 16 to the Atlanta Hawks, joining point guard Trae Young with his “excellent combination of ready-made production and future growth.”
The Ringer has Branham a bit later at No. 22 with the Memphis Grizzlies, calling him an “unexpected one-and-done player thanks to his blossoming scoring talents,” saying he needs to develop his playmaking ability and 3-point consistency, comparing him to Caris LaVert and Khris Middleton.
For what it’s worth, ESPN has E.J. Liddell at No. 24 to the Milwaukee Bucks (Reaction: Good luck to the rest of the East), while The Ringer has the former Ohio State forward at No. 18 to the Chicago Bulls, comparing him to Paul Millsap and PJ Washington.
Finally, here are the teams that won the NFL Draft:
Baltimore Ravens: With Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum and Michigan defensive end David Ojabo, John Harbaugh got three first-round players in the first 45 picks of the draft, adding in a solid tackle in Minnesota’s Daniel Faalale, a really good value tight end in Coastal Carolina’s Isaiah Likely and former Missouri running back Tyler Badie.
New York Giants: The Giants revamped their lines with their first round picks, bringing in Alabama tackle Evan Neal and Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux: two players that could play for a long, long time. Add in Indiana linebacker Micah McFadden, and that’s one hell of a draft.
New York Jets: Like the Giants, the Jets killed the first round with Cincinnati cornerback Sauce Gardner and Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson. The addition of Iowa State running back Breece Hall at the start of the second round, Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round and Louisiana tackle Max Mitchell in the fourth, something seems to be going right with the Jets right now.
Here’s the “song” of the week.
Like what I’m about to share, this description may be a bit long.
This weekend, I was at a music festival in Atlanta. Instead of spending my time writing this column like I normally do Sunday night, I was jamming to the sweet, sweet sounds of Joe Russo’s Almost Dead and Oysterhead — the trio of Trey Anastasio, Les Claypool and Stewart Copeland: probably the most talent I’ve seen on a stage at one time.
But that’s not what I’m here to talk about.
After seeing the Trey Anastasio Band Saturday night, my lovely brother David and I went to a local Atlanta club to hear a band out of Boston called Neighbor do a late-night set.
It’s a brand new band based out of a bar named Thunder Road in Somerville, one that’s just started to hit the road and, in the process, garner a lot of buzz. I caught some of their festival set that afternoon — including a sit in with String Cheese Incident’s Kyle Hollingsworth — but left to go see back-to-back sets of Spafford and Goose.
In short, I didn’t know what to expect from Neighbor’s show at Aisle 5 Saturday night. And they blew me out of the water.
Soon after the set started, Richard Young, the pianist and lead singer for the band, announced that the band would play a “rock odyssey” that he and his bandmates wrote in 2019, only the fifth time the four-piece had ever performed it in its entirety.
And it was GLORIOUS.
If you watch this video, I'm the guy at the 38-second mark that goes, "Oh, come on."
Guys, this band is going to be huge soon. Here’s a link to the set. Sit back, relax and listen. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.
Also, for you Ohio folk, Neighbor will be playing a free show in Hamilton May 27 with a band called Kitchen Dwellers.
soniabegonia | Neighbor at Aisle 5 4/30/2022
Live streams from my favorite New England bands.
mixlr.com
See you on the board.
