Thank god the off season is almost all over. What a crapfest it’s been since Media days.
In another recent era, an opening Nooner with a bottom feeding underachiever would not have offered any relief. OMG how Tressel used to make me suffer with these. I’d need 4 Advil and a generous Bloody Mary to make it through the first half with a rinse and repeat at half time, and then another after the game to calm my nerves and erase the memory of what I just witnessed.
Even Urban could have his moments with these early season non-cons…. Hawaii 2015. Oh what a root canal.
But Ryan Day isn’t a grizzled vet coach who wants to use Game 1 against an over matched opponent to enforce some adversity. It’s an audition and he wants to LOOK GOOD man.
So this game should be over by halftime. The entire Beaver coaching staff is new with limited pedigree, so I couldn’t predict squat even if I wanted to.
The Bucks are starting a new QB first time starting OT and OG and a Center who is switching positions…. two brand new LBs and a new Field Safety, so let’s just say I have lots of questions on our sideline as well.
If I have one concern, it’s that the complete lack of film and multiple newbies could make for a messy sandlot style game. Especially, if the new Beaver staff come in with the idea of throwing the kitchen sink at the Bucks with nothing to lose. That would make this worthless encounter really painful.
FWIW Bucks 59 - Beavers 13
I’m gonna hope for a vanilla game and focus this pregame snapshot on making it back to the CFP.
Last season we had a good enough RESUME. But it wasn’t clear cut, and we didn’t go.
The other criteria the CFPC talks about is GAME CONTROL.
And beyond conspiracy theories, I think this was our Achilles heel and might be again if we don’t address it.
Much like the resume this is subjective. Sort of like Supreme Court Justice Potter said about pornography...“It’s hard to describe, but you know it when you see it”.
It's easy to describe what Game Control isn’t.
It’s not losing to Clemson in a playoff game 31-0, or losing to OK by 2 scores with a 4% win expectancy, or Iowa by 4 scores with a 4% win expectancy, or being down to PSU by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter.
There are 4 factors that I’ll be looking for this season to improve this important but subjective objective. Obviously, you need explosive plays and lots of other stuff to build the resume, but I think there are some key things to improve on and I'll be looking for those early especially
Special Teams
Simple Gotta Fix the Kickoff.
We finished 129th in total KO return yards. 128th in return yards/game. 2 TDs… only 6 other teams gave up 2 or more. Ironically this was ok v. Iowa, but overall this need fixin in 2018.
FGs were ok, as we hit 80%. None of the CFP leaders were much better here. This is more situational for game control where scoring efficiency in the red zone is key. So it’s the % inside of 30-35 yards that is critical. Ideally, mid-high 90’s.
I'm excited to see what Demario McCall can do with the return game, but that will go more to explosiveness which we will also need but this is key for when we aren't controlling, or are playing another tough opponent who is also controlling the flow.
TO Margin 2018
BAMA was the gold standard among the Top candidates. 5th in TO margin and 2nd in TO’s at 10 TO’s per game.
The Bucks gave up the ROCK 19 times last season. Well over 1 per game, and this was a problem that I really hadn’t expected when I poked into this. OK 13 and Ga and Clemson at 16.
I think this was a symptom, and not a cause. We had 4 TOs against Iowa, so remove that outlier and we were acceptable, but I think less than 1 per game is the goal.
We had as many lost fumbles as interceptions so this isn’t all on the QB, and I think with a new QB this rest of the skill guys need to have the ball secured.
Offensive Game Control
This is THE area where most fans are interested/excited. The thinking is that with a more diverse passing attack we will be better here. Especially against better D, or bigger games.
The overall stat I’ll use here is win percentile for each side of the ball and then look more carefully at each loss and or game where the percentile production on offense was below 90%
The worst performance of the season was Oklahoma where the O put up a 35% percentile performance. They were outdone by the D, but more on that later.
At Iowa we were at 60%, which was is winnable and interestingly better than THE GAME where we were netted only 51%... or the B10CG at 47% or the Cotton Bowl at 30%.
So arguably, we have 1 defeat and are IN if the D had put up a better effort at Iowa, but frankly 5 games with an average offensive performance below 50% is not going to put us in the CFP.
If I look through each of those crapfest O performances, the problem was Standard Down Passing.
For Example, against OK on SD's KJ was targeted 10 times with 5 catches and a 30% success rate. Paris 3 for 5 with a 20% success rate. There were 35 pass attempts, so KJ and Paris got 40% of the targets and were successful on 4 of them. That won’t get her done in 2018.
OK on the other hand was 100% on SD passing attempts.
At Iowa the Turnovers were the killer, Standard Down passing was ok at 54% and Passing Down performance was awful at 33% success rate. Although part of the issue was we were playing from behind.
Iowa by contrast was at 70% SR on Standard downs... Those are the kind of numbers I’m hoping for in 2018.
I am thinking 3 things improve this season :
The playcalling/gameplan will better integrate the Standard down pass, pass to run option/RPO, zone run and power run game. See @Rossfulton. For more detail here.
The QB play will be much more consistent on the short/mid-range throws. I expect the downfield passing to be much better, but I have never subscribed to this as being an issue with Game Control. Teams have been playing deep zone against the Bucks since 2014.
The WRs will play with their hair on fire. I expect this to be a BIG FACTOR. Winning 50/50s, and fighting for the extra YAC are critical to net the 4+ yards on SD needed for Success.
Defensive Game Control
The bigger problem last season was on DEFENSE, where we put up percentile performances of 27% v OK, then 55% v PSU, 10% (woooeeee) v Iowa and 64% v TTUN who had no real QB threat. In general the play got better in the second half of the season, but THE GAME was not a great outing.
The problem was the mirror image for the D… they struggled in some key games to stop the Standard Down passing game.
As bad as O’Kornhole was he was 50% SR on Standard Downs. Mayfield was 100%, McSorely was only 54% SR on SD’s but that game control was lost off the kicking tee.
I expect the following will improve:
Schiano and Davis will simplify things for the LBs and tighten up the middle/mid-range passing.
Grinch and Johnson will also play a less aggressive but still tight mix man with C4 and quarter/quarter half. I think they were still playing like they had an all world Field Safety and Webb wasn’t that guy… I don’t think they will try that with either of the younguns until/unless they earn it.
The interior pass rush is going to be devastating. The focus will be on Bosa and Young, but the difference in stopping SD is to make the QB feel pressure on short throws with the pocket breaking down off the snap inside.
I hope for a GREAT GAME One to start us off on the March to the B10 Title and Beyond!!!
Go Bucks
In another recent era, an opening Nooner with a bottom feeding underachiever would not have offered any relief. OMG how Tressel used to make me suffer with these. I’d need 4 Advil and a generous Bloody Mary to make it through the first half with a rinse and repeat at half time, and then another after the game to calm my nerves and erase the memory of what I just witnessed.
Even Urban could have his moments with these early season non-cons…. Hawaii 2015. Oh what a root canal.
But Ryan Day isn’t a grizzled vet coach who wants to use Game 1 against an over matched opponent to enforce some adversity. It’s an audition and he wants to LOOK GOOD man.
So this game should be over by halftime. The entire Beaver coaching staff is new with limited pedigree, so I couldn’t predict squat even if I wanted to.
The Bucks are starting a new QB first time starting OT and OG and a Center who is switching positions…. two brand new LBs and a new Field Safety, so let’s just say I have lots of questions on our sideline as well.
If I have one concern, it’s that the complete lack of film and multiple newbies could make for a messy sandlot style game. Especially, if the new Beaver staff come in with the idea of throwing the kitchen sink at the Bucks with nothing to lose. That would make this worthless encounter really painful.
FWIW Bucks 59 - Beavers 13
I’m gonna hope for a vanilla game and focus this pregame snapshot on making it back to the CFP.
Last season we had a good enough RESUME. But it wasn’t clear cut, and we didn’t go.
The other criteria the CFPC talks about is GAME CONTROL.
And beyond conspiracy theories, I think this was our Achilles heel and might be again if we don’t address it.
Much like the resume this is subjective. Sort of like Supreme Court Justice Potter said about pornography...“It’s hard to describe, but you know it when you see it”.
It's easy to describe what Game Control isn’t.
It’s not losing to Clemson in a playoff game 31-0, or losing to OK by 2 scores with a 4% win expectancy, or Iowa by 4 scores with a 4% win expectancy, or being down to PSU by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter.
There are 4 factors that I’ll be looking for this season to improve this important but subjective objective. Obviously, you need explosive plays and lots of other stuff to build the resume, but I think there are some key things to improve on and I'll be looking for those early especially
Special Teams
Simple Gotta Fix the Kickoff.
We finished 129th in total KO return yards. 128th in return yards/game. 2 TDs… only 6 other teams gave up 2 or more. Ironically this was ok v. Iowa, but overall this need fixin in 2018.
FGs were ok, as we hit 80%. None of the CFP leaders were much better here. This is more situational for game control where scoring efficiency in the red zone is key. So it’s the % inside of 30-35 yards that is critical. Ideally, mid-high 90’s.
I'm excited to see what Demario McCall can do with the return game, but that will go more to explosiveness which we will also need but this is key for when we aren't controlling, or are playing another tough opponent who is also controlling the flow.
TO Margin 2018
BAMA was the gold standard among the Top candidates. 5th in TO margin and 2nd in TO’s at 10 TO’s per game.
The Bucks gave up the ROCK 19 times last season. Well over 1 per game, and this was a problem that I really hadn’t expected when I poked into this. OK 13 and Ga and Clemson at 16.
I think this was a symptom, and not a cause. We had 4 TOs against Iowa, so remove that outlier and we were acceptable, but I think less than 1 per game is the goal.
We had as many lost fumbles as interceptions so this isn’t all on the QB, and I think with a new QB this rest of the skill guys need to have the ball secured.
Offensive Game Control
This is THE area where most fans are interested/excited. The thinking is that with a more diverse passing attack we will be better here. Especially against better D, or bigger games.
The overall stat I’ll use here is win percentile for each side of the ball and then look more carefully at each loss and or game where the percentile production on offense was below 90%
The worst performance of the season was Oklahoma where the O put up a 35% percentile performance. They were outdone by the D, but more on that later.
At Iowa we were at 60%, which was is winnable and interestingly better than THE GAME where we were netted only 51%... or the B10CG at 47% or the Cotton Bowl at 30%.
So arguably, we have 1 defeat and are IN if the D had put up a better effort at Iowa, but frankly 5 games with an average offensive performance below 50% is not going to put us in the CFP.
If I look through each of those crapfest O performances, the problem was Standard Down Passing.
For Example, against OK on SD's KJ was targeted 10 times with 5 catches and a 30% success rate. Paris 3 for 5 with a 20% success rate. There were 35 pass attempts, so KJ and Paris got 40% of the targets and were successful on 4 of them. That won’t get her done in 2018.
OK on the other hand was 100% on SD passing attempts.
At Iowa the Turnovers were the killer, Standard Down passing was ok at 54% and Passing Down performance was awful at 33% success rate. Although part of the issue was we were playing from behind.
Iowa by contrast was at 70% SR on Standard downs... Those are the kind of numbers I’m hoping for in 2018.
I am thinking 3 things improve this season :
The playcalling/gameplan will better integrate the Standard down pass, pass to run option/RPO, zone run and power run game. See @Rossfulton. For more detail here.
The QB play will be much more consistent on the short/mid-range throws. I expect the downfield passing to be much better, but I have never subscribed to this as being an issue with Game Control. Teams have been playing deep zone against the Bucks since 2014.
The WRs will play with their hair on fire. I expect this to be a BIG FACTOR. Winning 50/50s, and fighting for the extra YAC are critical to net the 4+ yards on SD needed for Success.
Defensive Game Control
The bigger problem last season was on DEFENSE, where we put up percentile performances of 27% v OK, then 55% v PSU, 10% (woooeeee) v Iowa and 64% v TTUN who had no real QB threat. In general the play got better in the second half of the season, but THE GAME was not a great outing.
The problem was the mirror image for the D… they struggled in some key games to stop the Standard Down passing game.
As bad as O’Kornhole was he was 50% SR on Standard Downs. Mayfield was 100%, McSorely was only 54% SR on SD’s but that game control was lost off the kicking tee.
I expect the following will improve:
Schiano and Davis will simplify things for the LBs and tighten up the middle/mid-range passing.
Grinch and Johnson will also play a less aggressive but still tight mix man with C4 and quarter/quarter half. I think they were still playing like they had an all world Field Safety and Webb wasn’t that guy… I don’t think they will try that with either of the younguns until/unless they earn it.
The interior pass rush is going to be devastating. The focus will be on Bosa and Young, but the difference in stopping SD is to make the QB feel pressure on short throws with the pocket breaking down off the snap inside.
I hope for a GREAT GAME One to start us off on the March to the B10 Title and Beyond!!!
Go Bucks
