After the B10CG, despite how rocky the passing game looked, I was feeling pumped up and super confident about the matchup I expected v Clemson. Frankly, I think the 2020 Bucks had one agenda this season and revenge v Clemson was it, and we got it on a silver platter.
Most of the hodge podge of 2020 regular season as fragmented as it was, could be summed up thusly… a generally disinterested Buckeye team running a game plan from the spring game mustered enough focus to dominate every opponent they played even though they were reloading. They never played a full 60 at full throttle, lost interest and/or succumbed to the opponent throwing out their entire playbook (or common football logic) in an attempt to disrupt the Buckeyes and avoid getting blown out.
Then I did a detailed rewind of the NW and Indy games, and then a quick peek at Nebraska and PSU and came to a different conclusion. We were in serious trouble.
Then I did more research into the stats especially the Football Outsider advanced stats and box scores from the games v PSU, NW and IU as well as our game v Clemson 2019. I had some fantastic back and forth with Justin Whitlatch, who is a huge asset to this site!!! He posted a tweet from Seth Galina that hit the nail on the head for me. With all that I watched the replay of all 3 games and reviewed last years gut wrencher in AZ.
This is my conclusion: Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have either lost their minds, or after we dispatched PSU with brilliant and balanced offensive game plan they wanted to use the regular season - as limited it was - to try and install a full-fledged Pro Style read to run vertical passing attack regardless of how the opponent was defending us. When teams (all of the first 3 and Sparty) obliged and schemed to stop the run game with a single high safety and 8 in the box they had some success slowing down the rushing attack (aside from poor Sparty who were a shell of themselves in the season of Covid) but those teams got absolutely roasted in the air. Justin Fields was looking like a combination of Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.
When NW inverted their normal D scheme they gave up 399 yards on the ground at a clip of 9.1 per carry including Fields sacks. Both Sermon and Teague averaged over 11.5 yards per carry. Once Indy went full monty on the zone blitz and started juggling zone/man looks they gave Fields fits but couldn’t really stop the run either giving up 307 for 6.1 per carry.
In both of these games combined the TE’s accounted for exactly 0.00 receptions, and by my count the same # of targets.
Against PSU, … we threw for 318 and the TEs accounted for 6 catches 54 yards and 2 TDs. We "only" rushed for 208 and Garret Wilson accounted for 62 of those. Subtract Wilson’s run and you’re looking at 4.6 YPC. Against Rutgers we also rushed for 200 with a slightly better 5.5 YPC… OH BTW the TEs and Backs had 6 receptions in that game as well.. and Justin threw for 314.
Now for the advanced stats: PSU D is ranked #25 with the Fremeau index and #23 by the combined FEI and Bill Connelly’s SP+; Indiana 6 FEI, 15 Combined; and NW is #2 in both. Also note that Clemmy is #1 in both.
So I didn’t need Sherlock’s magnifying glass to sort out that somehow our running game improved by 3 fold against significantly better defenses….while the passing game suffered and we arbitrarily decided to stop throwing to the TE. BTW not even the GREAT Zeke Elliot could muster anything close to 6 YPC let alone 11.5 if the passing game was in the tank. Recall Sparty 2015. But somehow Trey Sermon did just that against the #2 D in CFB.
The tweet from Galina nailed it. Justin waits too long on his primary read (we all see this) and if it’s not open and the D changes scheme post snap he gets stuck in his progression (this is what I hadn’t seen). Bingo. There are two ways to fix this. Force the team to dedicate 8 dudes to stop the run so they have limited oppty to change scheme post snap, or throw blitz and soft zone beaters where the primary receiver is generally open in less than 2 secs.
I suppose there is a third… work with Justin so he gets better at making the progression adjustment with post snap scheme changes at game speed. Few QBs in CFB can do this, and it's becoming rarer and rarer in the NFL as most teams are going to quick looks and/or throws off of scramble drills.
So now that we have that sorted out… what about the D?
I have no idea. The best O we faced this season was IU who are a measly 38 FEI and 32 FEI/SP+; PSU is 48 and 43; and NW is 72 and 93. Clemson on O was #7 or #6 and played two games w/o their starting QB.
The Bucks were inconsistent on O with multiple breakdowns in the passing game and gave up some gash plays to running QBs. None of this bodes well.
The final summary on advanced stats suggests a very close game. Bucks ended up ranked by FEI #2 overall, #2 on O and #12 on D… with the combined stats #3 overall, #2 O and #8 D. Clemson FEI #3, 7 and 1 and combined #2, 6 and 1. It's strength on strength with very few weaknesses.
How it turns out: OSU wins, and Dabo claims it’s b/c we were well rested since we dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball. I expect both lines to play like the B10CG 2014, and that is the difference in a barn burner.
When he Bucks are on D
This is where the game turns for me, and it turns on safety play and whether we make some changes on the back 7 to account for Lawrence running and Amari Rodgers and Etienne RECEIVING. Our base scheme won't win this game without some changes.
I assume we use 4 DL on some downs, but change things up quite a bit. The swing factor in this game are the Bucks DTs and interior LB play which has been outstanding all season. The Tiger base scheme from the Chad Morris days is inside zone (just like a guy named Urban). If the 1 and 3 technique own the A and B gap and push those OL into the backfield that play is DOA. So by the way is Outside zone and Power. That’s why some fairly competent RBs haven’t done shit this against us this season and that won’t change in this game. Clemson’s OL is the weakest part of their entire roster, and they’ve been covering it up all season.
My expectation is that the Bucks frequently deploy a 3/4/4 with 4 LBs or a nickel (so offset 3/3 stack with a stand up DE or DB. Net net I expect 8 dudes back for most of the game, while we bring one off the edge or from the nickel/LB on a delay on passing downs.
The vulnerability this season has been with the QB run, and that was mostly cleaned up after Nebby but we haven’t really faced anything like Trevor since CFP 19. In the rotation, I’m thinking the 3/3 stack has Werner, Browning and Hilliard with Garret, Tommy and a rotation at DE. Tommy and Garret take a blow on passing downs.
The goal will be to take away the base run with the DTs, the QB run and underneath screens and slants to Rodgers with the LBs and Nickel/Wade and MAKE Trevor throw deep. If the safeties stay home we are in fat city.
With all this, I expect they use Wade on Rodgers and he will reprise is great game from last season and hopefully play all 60 mins..
We shut down the base run game (which we basically did last year as well) get a few stops and a TO, and that’ll be enough to keep Clemson off balance and under 32 overall and under 21 for H1.
When the Bucks are on O
While the Bucks O has been inconsistent in two of the three games against top 25 Defenses, as noted above I think there is a complicated explanation. To start… this Clemson D is NOT as good as last season and The Bucks O is better. Wilson and Olave are as good as any WRs in CFB and that includes BAMA, and while Teague and Sermon aren’t Dobbins they are good enough to shred a competent D that takes their eye off of them.
The Bucks put up 320 in the air and 197 on the ground with Fields injured coming into the game and Dobbins hobbled before halftime. A BIG problem last season was the lack of RZ scheme with Justin unable to really accelerate or push in short yardage. the bigger problem was that Dobbins was hobbled for over half the damn game.
I also think one reason Day/Wilson have been pushing the vertical stretch scheme is to SCORE before they get into the RZ. It’s also obvious that IF Justin could master it the offense becomes unstoppable, given the ability to run the ball downhill. But hardly anyone in the NFL even tries this anymore as the defensive personnel are just too fast across the board and the % aren’t in your favor.
The Bucks are going to take shots and they should, but I think they will be focused on moving the chains and using the SIZE of our RBs to wear down the Clemson front and keep them off balance. Venables banks on teams getting greedy and thus getting negative plays. Last season we took 4 sacks and 9 TFL and one INT in regulation. A principal story line in the game will be Day keeping his hands out of the cookie jar and picking his moments when Clemson is off balance.
We will (and must) cut the negative plays in half. The Clemson scheme is gonna get sacks but the TFL have to be reduced to near zero so Clemmy can't just pin their ears back with 2nd or 3rd and long.
Last season 8/30 receptions were by RB or TE and I expect that to continue or increase this game as part of the strategy to keep the LBs from blitzing without punishment and too keep the down and distance to 10 or less.
But the key to this game will be the OL, Teague and Sermon as I expect a pissed off group with more talent than Clemson has seen all season coming at them downhill. I also expect Justin to play like his hair is on fire, and light up the Clemson secondary
Most of the hodge podge of 2020 regular season as fragmented as it was, could be summed up thusly… a generally disinterested Buckeye team running a game plan from the spring game mustered enough focus to dominate every opponent they played even though they were reloading. They never played a full 60 at full throttle, lost interest and/or succumbed to the opponent throwing out their entire playbook (or common football logic) in an attempt to disrupt the Buckeyes and avoid getting blown out.
Then I did a detailed rewind of the NW and Indy games, and then a quick peek at Nebraska and PSU and came to a different conclusion. We were in serious trouble.
Then I did more research into the stats especially the Football Outsider advanced stats and box scores from the games v PSU, NW and IU as well as our game v Clemson 2019. I had some fantastic back and forth with Justin Whitlatch, who is a huge asset to this site!!! He posted a tweet from Seth Galina that hit the nail on the head for me. With all that I watched the replay of all 3 games and reviewed last years gut wrencher in AZ.
This is my conclusion: Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson have either lost their minds, or after we dispatched PSU with brilliant and balanced offensive game plan they wanted to use the regular season - as limited it was - to try and install a full-fledged Pro Style read to run vertical passing attack regardless of how the opponent was defending us. When teams (all of the first 3 and Sparty) obliged and schemed to stop the run game with a single high safety and 8 in the box they had some success slowing down the rushing attack (aside from poor Sparty who were a shell of themselves in the season of Covid) but those teams got absolutely roasted in the air. Justin Fields was looking like a combination of Tom Brady and Russel Wilson.
When NW inverted their normal D scheme they gave up 399 yards on the ground at a clip of 9.1 per carry including Fields sacks. Both Sermon and Teague averaged over 11.5 yards per carry. Once Indy went full monty on the zone blitz and started juggling zone/man looks they gave Fields fits but couldn’t really stop the run either giving up 307 for 6.1 per carry.
In both of these games combined the TE’s accounted for exactly 0.00 receptions, and by my count the same # of targets.
Against PSU, … we threw for 318 and the TEs accounted for 6 catches 54 yards and 2 TDs. We "only" rushed for 208 and Garret Wilson accounted for 62 of those. Subtract Wilson’s run and you’re looking at 4.6 YPC. Against Rutgers we also rushed for 200 with a slightly better 5.5 YPC… OH BTW the TEs and Backs had 6 receptions in that game as well.. and Justin threw for 314.
Now for the advanced stats: PSU D is ranked #25 with the Fremeau index and #23 by the combined FEI and Bill Connelly’s SP+; Indiana 6 FEI, 15 Combined; and NW is #2 in both. Also note that Clemmy is #1 in both.
So I didn’t need Sherlock’s magnifying glass to sort out that somehow our running game improved by 3 fold against significantly better defenses….while the passing game suffered and we arbitrarily decided to stop throwing to the TE. BTW not even the GREAT Zeke Elliot could muster anything close to 6 YPC let alone 11.5 if the passing game was in the tank. Recall Sparty 2015. But somehow Trey Sermon did just that against the #2 D in CFB.
The tweet from Galina nailed it. Justin waits too long on his primary read (we all see this) and if it’s not open and the D changes scheme post snap he gets stuck in his progression (this is what I hadn’t seen). Bingo. There are two ways to fix this. Force the team to dedicate 8 dudes to stop the run so they have limited oppty to change scheme post snap, or throw blitz and soft zone beaters where the primary receiver is generally open in less than 2 secs.
I suppose there is a third… work with Justin so he gets better at making the progression adjustment with post snap scheme changes at game speed. Few QBs in CFB can do this, and it's becoming rarer and rarer in the NFL as most teams are going to quick looks and/or throws off of scramble drills.
So now that we have that sorted out… what about the D?
I have no idea. The best O we faced this season was IU who are a measly 38 FEI and 32 FEI/SP+; PSU is 48 and 43; and NW is 72 and 93. Clemson on O was #7 or #6 and played two games w/o their starting QB.
The Bucks were inconsistent on O with multiple breakdowns in the passing game and gave up some gash plays to running QBs. None of this bodes well.
The final summary on advanced stats suggests a very close game. Bucks ended up ranked by FEI #2 overall, #2 on O and #12 on D… with the combined stats #3 overall, #2 O and #8 D. Clemson FEI #3, 7 and 1 and combined #2, 6 and 1. It's strength on strength with very few weaknesses.
How it turns out: OSU wins, and Dabo claims it’s b/c we were well rested since we dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball. I expect both lines to play like the B10CG 2014, and that is the difference in a barn burner.
When he Bucks are on D
This is where the game turns for me, and it turns on safety play and whether we make some changes on the back 7 to account for Lawrence running and Amari Rodgers and Etienne RECEIVING. Our base scheme won't win this game without some changes.
I assume we use 4 DL on some downs, but change things up quite a bit. The swing factor in this game are the Bucks DTs and interior LB play which has been outstanding all season. The Tiger base scheme from the Chad Morris days is inside zone (just like a guy named Urban). If the 1 and 3 technique own the A and B gap and push those OL into the backfield that play is DOA. So by the way is Outside zone and Power. That’s why some fairly competent RBs haven’t done shit this against us this season and that won’t change in this game. Clemson’s OL is the weakest part of their entire roster, and they’ve been covering it up all season.
My expectation is that the Bucks frequently deploy a 3/4/4 with 4 LBs or a nickel (so offset 3/3 stack with a stand up DE or DB. Net net I expect 8 dudes back for most of the game, while we bring one off the edge or from the nickel/LB on a delay on passing downs.
The vulnerability this season has been with the QB run, and that was mostly cleaned up after Nebby but we haven’t really faced anything like Trevor since CFP 19. In the rotation, I’m thinking the 3/3 stack has Werner, Browning and Hilliard with Garret, Tommy and a rotation at DE. Tommy and Garret take a blow on passing downs.
The goal will be to take away the base run with the DTs, the QB run and underneath screens and slants to Rodgers with the LBs and Nickel/Wade and MAKE Trevor throw deep. If the safeties stay home we are in fat city.
With all this, I expect they use Wade on Rodgers and he will reprise is great game from last season and hopefully play all 60 mins..
We shut down the base run game (which we basically did last year as well) get a few stops and a TO, and that’ll be enough to keep Clemson off balance and under 32 overall and under 21 for H1.
When the Bucks are on O
While the Bucks O has been inconsistent in two of the three games against top 25 Defenses, as noted above I think there is a complicated explanation. To start… this Clemson D is NOT as good as last season and The Bucks O is better. Wilson and Olave are as good as any WRs in CFB and that includes BAMA, and while Teague and Sermon aren’t Dobbins they are good enough to shred a competent D that takes their eye off of them.
The Bucks put up 320 in the air and 197 on the ground with Fields injured coming into the game and Dobbins hobbled before halftime. A BIG problem last season was the lack of RZ scheme with Justin unable to really accelerate or push in short yardage. the bigger problem was that Dobbins was hobbled for over half the damn game.
I also think one reason Day/Wilson have been pushing the vertical stretch scheme is to SCORE before they get into the RZ. It’s also obvious that IF Justin could master it the offense becomes unstoppable, given the ability to run the ball downhill. But hardly anyone in the NFL even tries this anymore as the defensive personnel are just too fast across the board and the % aren’t in your favor.
The Bucks are going to take shots and they should, but I think they will be focused on moving the chains and using the SIZE of our RBs to wear down the Clemson front and keep them off balance. Venables banks on teams getting greedy and thus getting negative plays. Last season we took 4 sacks and 9 TFL and one INT in regulation. A principal story line in the game will be Day keeping his hands out of the cookie jar and picking his moments when Clemson is off balance.
We will (and must) cut the negative plays in half. The Clemson scheme is gonna get sacks but the TFL have to be reduced to near zero so Clemmy can't just pin their ears back with 2nd or 3rd and long.
Last season 8/30 receptions were by RB or TE and I expect that to continue or increase this game as part of the strategy to keep the LBs from blitzing without punishment and too keep the down and distance to 10 or less.
But the key to this game will be the OL, Teague and Sermon as I expect a pissed off group with more talent than Clemson has seen all season coming at them downhill. I also expect Justin to play like his hair is on fire, and light up the Clemson secondary
