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Thinking Owls 2019

Tom58

All-conference
Gold Member
Aug 17, 2015
6,566
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Here we go. The early games starting last Saturday have been fun.

Gawd I hope we don't go offsides 5-10 times in the first half with multiple infractions in the red zone, or tackle like either Miami or Fla.

The Owls are lame, Kiffin is a fun interview... their TE is special and that's about it.

This game is ALL about the Bucks.

We have new starters all over the field, some guys in new positions and generally FAR more questions than answers. Add in a new HC and a co-DC new to CFB, and it's a lot of newness.

If this were Tress with a veteran team, or likely Urb for that matter, you could count on a grinding nooner. I'm thinking YSU and Hawaii for each coach. A HoF coach with a veteran team uses these games to "teach" adversity. Unfortunately, the fans get to go along for the ride.

It's not, so I expect things to be vanilla but not overly conservative and the Bucks have a lot of fire power. That said, this is an inexperienced team... so there will be GROWING pains with some misfires along the way. How many is the only open question.

I'm really interested in a couple of things on each side of the ball that boil down to the Bucks starting the season by Taking The A Gap BACK.

WHEN THE BUCKS ARE ON D

All the off season yak has been about the Bullet (White and Wint), but I'm much more interested in THE OTHER hybrid safety and the Inside LBs.

To shut down (really contain) a modern spread you have to defend the pass and the edge without sacrificing the inside run game.

Before you can worry about locking down the A Gap you have to seal the Field Alley.

The SLOT receiver is the magic chess piece, and if you can shut him down and be able to control the pass as run plays to the FIELD the spread passing attack becomes much more difficult to execute.

Last season the brain trust had (or tried to have) a 230 lb LB try and perform this critical mission. It was about as effective as having Sargent Schultz guard Hogan's Hero's.

Wade has the perfect tools for this assignment, and I'm super interested to see if he's developed through the off season. He has the potential be an eraser and with that help the D return to Elite Silver Bullet status.

To fully make that move back into a Top5 D, the play of the inside LB's has to improve. Period.

The Bucks 4-2-5 is a "balanced" look and puts every defender on their own, and in particular the Inside LBs. Other schemes like the Tite Front (see below) use the DL to take on the inside gaps and let the LB's roam to the ball.

The downside of the Tite Front is getting the DL engaged in the pass rush. The teams that run it use a designated OLB as a rush end. It can work, but it's possible to out leverage and it will give a QB time he wouldn't have against other fronts.

Last season the LB's weren't up to the task. Without diagnosing why, since it no longer matters, I'll be looking to see if the Bucks Front can stone the inside zone and RPO.

I'll be watching to see if the LB to the run side is disengaging the OL and making the tackle at the LOS. Almost as important is the away side guy staying out of the wash and then taking the proper angle to cover up in the event the RB gets loose.

Neither of these things happened last season on a regular basis. It sounds easy. It isn't. When it doesn't happen against the modern spread BAD THINGS happen and they did last season.

It is critical for the Bucks to fix the IBL execution to regain Bullet status.

WHEN THE BUCKS ARE ON O

The focus here for all the right reasons will be on Fields, and while I'll be interested too, my main focus will be on the 3 interior linemen and Dobbins.

Last season with the lack of a mobile QB, Urban's stubborn desire to run the IZ whether he had one or not, and the interior line being either out of position or playing soft the net result was we COULD NOT run inside.

The Bucks are a Power Spread team, and this season I think we see the full flower of Wilson and Day along with a properly positioned OL and a Back in his money year... all things are pointing to a REBOUND.

While Day will call the plays and it's largely his O. I think Wilson will have a big hand in restoring the run game.

Wilson learned the bulk of his craft from Randy Walker and together they originated the concept of power run blocking within an Air Raid pass to run scheme at Northwestern. When you add that to an RPO with a running QB and the mesh passing that Day learned from Mike Martz..... and ladies and gentlemen THE A GAP should be open.

Last season opposing D could simply line up in a Tite Front, take the A and B gaps away and pray that Haskins had an off day and/or that Urban would stubbornly run the Inside gap often enough to keep them in the game.

In the Tite Front, the D lines up with a zero (dude head up on the C) and two 4i's DE/DTs lined up on the inside shoulder of the OTs. Slant or stunt and there's not a lot of room, unless you run power... and guess what if that's the look get ready for DAVE. He's back along with a far more advanced passing game.

Haskins rarely was off, and Day/Wilson had wrinkles and the O was 4th in the nation by FB Outsiders S&P ... but there was virtually NO inside run game.

Haskins is in the league and Fields won't be able to carry the team on his arm (few CFB QBs can), so the Bucks need to take back the inside run game.

What I'll look for is whether Dobbins can get into the hole clean. Tress used to have the right visual cue. Does he get his feet to the LOS before he gets first contact.

That will tell me that the combo of scheme and OL execution is getting a seam, which was absent in 2018. I'll also be looking to see if JK is making the 2nd level defender miss. Last year he was rarely getting to the second level and once there running right into the 2nd level dude.

I expect the Day/Wilson will use power blocking, pass to run RPO and mesh to give Field easy throws to either exploit the Tite Front or force the other team out of it.

Out of all that with ta re-invigorated interior OL and JK in a money year with a chip on his shoulder, I'll be surprised if his doesn't start his run for the bronze.

HOW IT ENDS UP

It won't be a thing of beauty, but I expect the Bucks to cover the spread and the over.

JK should get a quick 150 and sit. Fields will have some highlights and a few OMG he's young, and I'm glad we have some film to prepare for UC.

I HOPE the ILBs have improved, and the D will be at least good. We'll get a read on how good tomorrow.
 
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