Hopefully there will be a B10 season to think about, but for right now all I can think about is how to curb my frustration and disappointment at the current situation.
I don't share any of the thinking that there is some diabolical political plot here. Neither party benefits from the B10 shut down, and folks who vote red and blue are suffering and would be delighted if we started next weekend.. and the rest of the public don't care or don't vote.
The decision to cancel was based on sound logic. Sorry sports fans.
For those schools who were losing money with large endowments that are located in or near a large metro area the decision to cancel was and is still a no brainer.
To turn this around, the schools where FB is important to the campus community who are in a stronger revenue position will need to make a strong case. It won't be easy.
I don't see a YES until the first wave of games with the other majors is played next weekend, or a YES will be contingent on success.
I also can't see the HARD NO's turning to YES. So those programs will likely need a way to opt out and "allow" the YES teams to play. I expect they will want some part of the TV revenue in the event the season progresses to allow the YES programs to play.
This will likely result in a future restructuring of the conference. Rutgers and Maryland were part of Delaney's dream to expand the B10 into the East Coast media market and he's no longer here. Northwestern is really a misfit. A private school with large endowment and small stadium with limited FB culture.
I don't share any of the thinking that there is some diabolical political plot here. Neither party benefits from the B10 shut down, and folks who vote red and blue are suffering and would be delighted if we started next weekend.. and the rest of the public don't care or don't vote.
The decision to cancel was based on sound logic. Sorry sports fans.
The revenues for this season are/were going to be reduced if the full season as scheduled was played. Those revenues are/were at risk to be even further reduced if the season is cancelled after it started. Advertisers are already pulling out and asking/demanding reduction. Ticket sales will be less/zero. etc!
The same situation with school revenues applies to the local community revenues. They were going to be negatively impacted even if the schedule was played and they don't get any TV money.
The cost to proceed with pre-season practice and the full season is/was going to be more expensive due to testing and other costs that go beyond the normal expenses. Most of those costs are associated with practice and had already started with early pre-season camps and would increase with each practice conducted even if a game was never played.
There is a real liability risk if players or staff have downstream healthcare issues. These risks are potentially higher for schools with large non sports endowments. A waiver was deemed not legally binding. This is something that could be challenged, but is the current status quo.
Some of the B10 programs are and have been losing money, and stand to lose significantly more money with the current situation with CV19. OSU is one program losing money, but that is somewhat discretionary as they also have the highest revenue.
The importance of FB to the campus community varies significantly among the B10 programs.
Multiple programs are located in or near large metro areas where the risk of large scale contagion spikes that could be tied to FB being played in those areas was/is higher. This would/could extend the liability exposure.
For those schools losing money before CV19, the decision to cancel BEFORE practice started was the best possible outcome as they would lose less money and eliminate the liability risk
There is no medical certainty with the virus as the scientific community have only been able to study it for 6 months.
The public perception about the risk and potential to play a full season was very low in the week the decision was made, and there was a lot of noise that the P12 and ACC were both leaning toward canceling.
For those schools who were losing money with large endowments that are located in or near a large metro area the decision to cancel was and is still a no brainer.
To turn this around, the schools where FB is important to the campus community who are in a stronger revenue position will need to make a strong case. It won't be easy.
They will need to show empirically that they can play CFB with minimal risk of wide spread contagion outbreak. The NBA and NHL look good. MLB is a cluster. NFL is looking good so far. The early season practices at B10 schools that took proper protocols was good.
The rapid testing kits that are now available will help this in theory. But major schools successfully playing is the only real empirical evidence we will get, and it will add to the public perception aspect.
Data that shows the negative revenue impact including externalities will be critical. Community loss, and other athletic programs etc. There is no way this was evaluated with the original decision. It will need to be emphasized.
Liability from not playing will need to be factored into the long term economics. A player class action suit from Tom Mars is a very real possibility.
Public perception and brand loss due to the decision and the way it was communicated is now clear and the easiest way to turn this around is to make a concerted effort to TRY and play a constrained season.
The public perception about the conference will become personal, as the FOIA from Nebraska guarantees that the NO voters will have to come forward and explain themselves. This may be the BIGGEST single item in the YES camp's favor. They need to make it clear that the the YES voters are not going to take one for the team. The HARD No's may not care, but the preso's on the fence will have to face some nasty music if this stays NO.
How are the other leagues making this work OR not.The SEC and B12 are comprised of schools with strong FB culture, generally located in smaller metro areas with relatively small endowments.
The ACC added Notre Dame and their TV contract with NBC is now shared. My understanding is ND held them hostage with the TV contract.
The P12 has multiple schools in large metro areas, multiple programs with limited FB culture and multiple schools with MONSTER outside endowments.
How this plays outI don't see a YES until the first wave of games with the other majors is played next weekend, or a YES will be contingent on success.
I also can't see the HARD NO's turning to YES. So those programs will likely need a way to opt out and "allow" the YES teams to play. I expect they will want some part of the TV revenue in the event the season progresses to allow the YES programs to play.
This will likely result in a future restructuring of the conference. Rutgers and Maryland were part of Delaney's dream to expand the B10 into the East Coast media market and he's no longer here. Northwestern is really a misfit. A private school with large endowment and small stadium with limited FB culture.
