As a wise coach once said about Game 1 to Game 2....and there is A LOT to improve on what was otherwise a pretty good foundation.
As much discussion as there was about the changes to the scheme on D this offseason, there may indeed be FAR bigger changes on O coming to a horseshoe near you.
Last week my focus was on taking back the A gaps.
Unfortunately, I need to keep that focus on O. Beyond just wanting to see improved success rate (>50% with 3 yards + on each carry, not the average)
I'll keep any eye on the D's ability to stop a team fully committed to the run this week, my focus is going to shift to the back end with a keen focus on avoiding the dink and dunk and chunk passing play down the seam.
How I think it'll play out: I expect the run game to take a big step and the passing D to get a bit of a workout.. and the Bucks win 34-17ish.
When the Bucks Have The Ball
The Bucks need to, and I think will, take a big step forward with the run game while facing a D who provides a similarly big step up in weight class.
The inability to run the ball with consistency against FAU whose D was a smelly 82 S&P+ on D last season was very concerning, and we NEED significant improvement as we face a Cincy D who was 36th in the S&P+ last season.
Cincy lost their studly DL, and 36 S&P isn't the fearsome foursome or Black and Red People Eaters, but the are solid and they were SIXTH in the S&P against the RUN.
And that my friends is the story in this game.
My sense last week besides the element of scrimmage that the game turned into, was that Day/Wilson were still experimenting and trying to determine what identity they wanted for the O while breaking in a first time starter at QB and Center.
They have an interesting opportunity/challenge.
Fields is a better runner than passer, but they can't risk getting him hurt so they don't want to run him. And if you don't want to do something, then you're better off not trying. That doesn't mean you throw the keys away, you just can't make it a corner stone of the identity. They could evolve to make this more of a feature if one of the backups starts to master the O, but until then they can't risk it. I also don't think Day wants this to be a featured component in his scheme.
If you can't (or don't want to) run the QB out of the spread, then the only other option is to use AIR RAID tactics and while Yurcich is very comfy with those plays and so is Wilson/Day I expect we will see them. However, I don't think Day or Wilson want to go down the Oklahoma path and make those Air Raid plays a corner stone in the scheme either.
So.... that means WEST COAST PRO style with spread elements. Ironically, this is what Harbaugh was hired to bring to TTUN and ditched it this off season.
What I think they'd like to do is something akin the the Seahawks when Lynch was in his prime with Russel Wilson running to move the chains with FAR more spread elements b/c after all this is CFB.
The difference is that (on a relative basis) the Bucks have better WRs and I think Wilson knows how to use his TE.
Since I mentioned it, THE reason Jimmy Boy hasn't been able to make the O go up north is the lack of a running back along with his QB carousel and little to NO depth at WR.
This brings my to THE key for me in this game.
Was Game 1 just a bad start for JK, who had a bad whole season last year... or is he struggling to adapt to the new scheme.
To make this O what it needs to be, we need a running game that forces teams to play a Tite Front and leave the back end soft.
Most people myself included had pretty much counted on JK to build on his freshman year and skip last season as a bad dream. But if Game 1 is an indicator he regressed, adding missed blocks and fumbles to an inability to net more than 2 yards on multiple inside run plays.
I think JK will get back on rails, but I'm not sure his running style is ideal for a West Coast pro style scheme... and that brings me to Teague and Crowley.
I really like these two... and that "stable" with Demario as a change up could evolve to become dominant.... and we need that to happen.
When the Bucks are on D
While the Cincy D was solid in 2018, their O was NOT. They ranked 74th S&P. For reference FAU was 49th.
Cincy passing was awful at 92nd. Rushing was better at 60, but that's still NOT GOOD.
I expect that the front 7 will have another solid outing, and that Browning will take another step to locking down the majority of the reps at the inside backer spot not manned by Harrison and sometimes called Mike.
I expect the DCs will still be fairly vanilla this week, and the ZONE will be tested.
I would think against a similar team later in the season the D will be STONE COLD assassins, but this is GAME TWO... and the staff will push the off ball zone to see how the kids play it.
I'll be really interested to see if the Bucks can stop the Cincy TE. I have him on my fantasy team, and he is good enough to give the Bullets the same matchup problems as Reynolds did last week.
As much discussion as there was about the changes to the scheme on D this offseason, there may indeed be FAR bigger changes on O coming to a horseshoe near you.
Last week my focus was on taking back the A gaps.
Unfortunately, I need to keep that focus on O. Beyond just wanting to see improved success rate (>50% with 3 yards + on each carry, not the average)
I'll keep any eye on the D's ability to stop a team fully committed to the run this week, my focus is going to shift to the back end with a keen focus on avoiding the dink and dunk and chunk passing play down the seam.
How I think it'll play out: I expect the run game to take a big step and the passing D to get a bit of a workout.. and the Bucks win 34-17ish.
When the Bucks Have The Ball
The Bucks need to, and I think will, take a big step forward with the run game while facing a D who provides a similarly big step up in weight class.
The inability to run the ball with consistency against FAU whose D was a smelly 82 S&P+ on D last season was very concerning, and we NEED significant improvement as we face a Cincy D who was 36th in the S&P+ last season.
Cincy lost their studly DL, and 36 S&P isn't the fearsome foursome or Black and Red People Eaters, but the are solid and they were SIXTH in the S&P against the RUN.
And that my friends is the story in this game.
My sense last week besides the element of scrimmage that the game turned into, was that Day/Wilson were still experimenting and trying to determine what identity they wanted for the O while breaking in a first time starter at QB and Center.
They have an interesting opportunity/challenge.
Fields is a better runner than passer, but they can't risk getting him hurt so they don't want to run him. And if you don't want to do something, then you're better off not trying. That doesn't mean you throw the keys away, you just can't make it a corner stone of the identity. They could evolve to make this more of a feature if one of the backups starts to master the O, but until then they can't risk it. I also don't think Day wants this to be a featured component in his scheme.
If you can't (or don't want to) run the QB out of the spread, then the only other option is to use AIR RAID tactics and while Yurcich is very comfy with those plays and so is Wilson/Day I expect we will see them. However, I don't think Day or Wilson want to go down the Oklahoma path and make those Air Raid plays a corner stone in the scheme either.
So.... that means WEST COAST PRO style with spread elements. Ironically, this is what Harbaugh was hired to bring to TTUN and ditched it this off season.
What I think they'd like to do is something akin the the Seahawks when Lynch was in his prime with Russel Wilson running to move the chains with FAR more spread elements b/c after all this is CFB.
The difference is that (on a relative basis) the Bucks have better WRs and I think Wilson knows how to use his TE.
Since I mentioned it, THE reason Jimmy Boy hasn't been able to make the O go up north is the lack of a running back along with his QB carousel and little to NO depth at WR.
This brings my to THE key for me in this game.
Was Game 1 just a bad start for JK, who had a bad whole season last year... or is he struggling to adapt to the new scheme.
To make this O what it needs to be, we need a running game that forces teams to play a Tite Front and leave the back end soft.
Most people myself included had pretty much counted on JK to build on his freshman year and skip last season as a bad dream. But if Game 1 is an indicator he regressed, adding missed blocks and fumbles to an inability to net more than 2 yards on multiple inside run plays.
I think JK will get back on rails, but I'm not sure his running style is ideal for a West Coast pro style scheme... and that brings me to Teague and Crowley.
I really like these two... and that "stable" with Demario as a change up could evolve to become dominant.... and we need that to happen.
When the Bucks are on D
While the Cincy D was solid in 2018, their O was NOT. They ranked 74th S&P. For reference FAU was 49th.
Cincy passing was awful at 92nd. Rushing was better at 60, but that's still NOT GOOD.
I expect that the front 7 will have another solid outing, and that Browning will take another step to locking down the majority of the reps at the inside backer spot not manned by Harrison and sometimes called Mike.
I expect the DCs will still be fairly vanilla this week, and the ZONE will be tested.
I would think against a similar team later in the season the D will be STONE COLD assassins, but this is GAME TWO... and the staff will push the off ball zone to see how the kids play it.
I'll be really interested to see if the Bucks can stop the Cincy TE. I have him on my fantasy team, and he is good enough to give the Bullets the same matchup problems as Reynolds did last week.
