FWIW, Tray Scott loves, loves, loves McKinley even though UGA has largely struggled to connect with him. I trust Tray Scott's eval on DL.
LJ was convinced that McKinley was "in" early in the process. But, he's a small town kid who didn't mind the remoteness of College Station. Yes, as reported, "distance from home" is a factor, but it's more of a combination of distance from home + big city. The counterpoint is: NFL teams are in big cities, and you go to college to prepare you for your professional career. People were a little surprised when he committed to A&M. Elijah Robinson is a conman and a grifter, but he's an exceptional conman and grifter. He makes Vince Marrow look like a street pimp in comparison. Evidently, Angie McKinley liked what Elijah was selling. (Again, say what you will about the man's ethics, he's an excellent recruiter and rarely loses a living room battle when Mom is involved. And, no, not in the Josh Gattis / Nicky Jones way.)
His mother is a lot like Monica Johnson, both in terms of influence and ubiquitous presence. Angie McKinley likes LJ. Academics matter to her. She's in education, and the "life after football" argument is important to the family. They're also not blind to finances. UGA thinks that elite players will start recognizing the benefit of being the last 5* standing when the February signing period comes around. Sure, you might miss out on early enrollment (which, not every parent thinks is a great idea for their respective son), but you could maximize NIL as being the biggest fish in a very dry pond.
UGA thinks that Texas might be the leader at the moment. Very good academic school. Both mother and son like Bo Davis...a lot. Bo Davis also has strong Louisiana ties going back to his playing days. But, if he's contemplating Texas, then perhaps the big city issue has somewhat lessened in his decision-making processes.
TL;DR: Ohio State has an outside shot at McKinley. TOSU isn't the favorite, but they're not out of discussion.